Global Temperature Page- May 2011

This page will be reposted around the middle of each month, as soon as SOI and UAH data for the previous month are available.

Updated 18 May

I have developed a rough “rule of thumb” method for approximating annual temperature anomalies using long term values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI).   My predictions for the 12 month running mean of global atmospheric temperature anomalies measured by satellite sensors and recorded as the UAH (University of Alabama, Huntsville) record:-

Month

Predicted 12 month running mean

Actual UAH  12 month mean

March 2011

+0.29 +/- 0.05

+0.27

April 2011

+0.23 +/- 0.05

 +0.25
(The following will be fine tuned and updated as new data become available.)

May 2011

+0.21 +/- 0.05

June 2011

+0.16

July 2011

+0.13

August 2011

+0.07

September 2011

+0.02

October 2011

 +0.01

Here is the plot of 12 month mean temperature anomaly forecasts until the end of the year, assuming La Nina fades out and the SOI returns to 0 for May and June.  If the SOI again goes strongly positive, the temperatures will go lower. (In this graph, SOI is inverted).

(Official UAH has not yet been updated for April due to the tornadoes, but Dr Roy Spencer reports +0.12.  This seems high but we shall see.  October 12 month average will be about +0.01.  With the SOI dropping rapidly I expect to see the 12 month mean temperatures bottom out in the last 3 months of the year.)

Please note- I started this method in March 2011.  Please refer to

http://kenskingdom.wordpress.com/2011/04/05/can-we-predict-future-temperatures/

I will expand on my method in a future post.

Ken Stewart, May 2011

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2 Responses to “Global Temperature Page- May 2011”

  1. TWAWKI » Climate data manufacturing facility Says:

    [...] Over at Ken’s Kingdom he is looking at predictions for future global temps and it seems that the direction is looking cold. Ken says; [...]

  2. Climate data manufacturing facility « Anti Oligarch Says:

    [...] Over at Ken’s Kingdom he is looking at predictions for future global temps and it seems that the direction is looking cold. Ken says; [...]

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