Global Temperature Predictions- May

This page will be reposted around the middle of June, as soon as SOI and UAH data for the previous month are available.

The April UAH value is +0.29,  making the running 12 month mean +0.17 +/- 0.1.  April SOI was -7.1 which is neutral ENSO, but dropping.  The next few weeks will be interesting.  My predictions:

Month

Actual UAH 12 month mean

Predictions

December 2011

+0.15

+0.12

January 2012

+0.15

+0.12

February 2012

+0.14

+0.13

March 2012

+0.15

+0.13

April 2012

+0.17

+0.13

May 2012

+0.12

June 2012

+0.12

July 2012

+0.13

August 2012

+0.15

September 2012

+0.15

October 2012

+0.16

We’ll see how we go with this calculation!

If we enter a new El Nino phase we can expect global 12 month mean temperatures to rise steadily in the last part of 2012 and more rapidly in 2013, peaking about mid-year.  If we remain in a neutral phase, 12 month mean temperatures should stay in the +0.1 to +0.2 range for the next 18 months.  A renewed La Nina will lead to temperatures dropping below +0.1, possibly to below 0.0 if La Nina is strong enough.

Last month I tipped “The next weather enhancement for SE Queensland and NSW  will be in about five to seven weeks- late May to early June.”  As the winter pattern is now established, that appears to hold, but there may be a mid to late June influence.

Here are weekly rainfall maps for the past few weeks.  I was plain wrong about the late April disturbance.

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