This page will be reposted around the middle of June, as soon as SOI and UAH data for the previous month are available.
The April UAH value is +0.29, making the running 12 month mean +0.17 +/- 0.1. April SOI was -7.1 which is neutral ENSO, but dropping. The next few weeks will be interesting. My predictions:
|
Month |
Actual UAH 12 month mean |
Predictions |
|
December 2011 |
+0.15 |
+0.12 |
|
January 2012 |
+0.15 |
+0.12 |
|
February 2012 |
+0.14 |
+0.13 |
|
March 2012 |
+0.15 |
+0.13 |
|
April 2012 |
+0.17 |
+0.13 |
|
May 2012 |
+0.12 |
|
|
June 2012 |
+0.12 |
|
|
July 2012 |
+0.13 |
|
|
August 2012 |
+0.15 |
|
|
September 2012 |
+0.15 |
|
|
October 2012 |
+0.16 |
We’ll see how we go with this calculation!
If we enter a new El Nino phase we can expect global 12 month mean temperatures to rise steadily in the last part of 2012 and more rapidly in 2013, peaking about mid-year. If we remain in a neutral phase, 12 month mean temperatures should stay in the +0.1 to +0.2 range for the next 18 months. A renewed La Nina will lead to temperatures dropping below +0.1, possibly to below 0.0 if La Nina is strong enough.
Last month I tipped “The next weather enhancement for SE Queensland and NSW will be in about five to seven weeks- late May to early June.” As the winter pattern is now established, that appears to hold, but there may be a mid to late June influence.
Here are weekly rainfall maps for the past few weeks. I was plain wrong about the late April disturbance.
