Rainfall Predictions- 1 August 2012

This page will be reposted towards the end of August, as soon as I have enough RAINFALL and minimum temperature data.

I delayed posting until the July rain event ceased, and since then I’ve been busy moving house so haven’t been able to give this much attention.  Also I’ve had some internet connection problems!

Last month I tipped “The next major weather enhancement is likely to be late June to early July.”

This is how we went:

The July rain event eventually petered out about 16 July, so it lasted a week longer than I expected, and was much heavier than anyone thought.

After further analysis, instead of just a month or so ahead I’m going to have a go at longer terms, starting with this:

For southern and central Queensland (Mackay to Longreach and south to the border), the next enhancements will be early to mid-August (which may last a week or two), another late September to mid-October, and maybe late October to early November.  Indications are that there will be heavier rain events starting in the period early to mid-November and early to mid-December.   These events may affect NSW as well, but I am restricting my study at this stage to Queensland.

Specifically, I’m expecting there may be a small rain event around 5-8 August and another probably larger one in the period 15-25 August, (I’m tipping close to 18-20 August). 

I’ll try to improve my predictions for the spring rainfall events in future posts.

How’s that for going out on a limb?

I’m doing this to test (publicly) a hunch/ theory I have about rainfall patterns.  Since September last year when I commenced predicting rain events I have been wrong once (I missed the return of the monsoon in mid-March), and this latest rain lasted longer than I expected, but generally I’ve been pretty darn close.  Check back and see if you don’t believe me.

More later!

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6 Responses to “Rainfall Predictions- 1 August 2012”

  1. val majkus Says:

    good on you Ken, you’re certainly better for mid long range than the local forecast in S E Qld

  2. Ken Stewart Says:

    Thanks Val, early days yet! The “early” part of the August prediction may not eventuate except in southern states. A big change coming through though.

  3. Nicole Kanofski Photography Says:

    Hi, great work. I have been watching your post’s with great interest!
    You are pretty close to the mark!
    These clouds are heavy, but deliver no rain! Yet!……It will come!
    The springs have started to run as of last week, good sign I think.. We need it!
    Keep up the good work!

    • Ken Stewart Says:

      Gday Nicole
      It’s nice to have some encouragement! (Roughly) whereabouts are you?
      Ken

      • Nicole Kanofski Photography Says:

        We are at Rosewood, roughly half way between Gatton and Ipswich in the Bremer valley. I am 5th generation on our farm and have all the rain records, so its been interesting seeing the drought/ wet cycles! I watch with interest in the astronomical side of the weather also, solar flares, sun spots/ moon cycles etc. My grandparents used to swear by Inigo Jones method of long range forecasting, and so as a child I was always interested in the weather! Stumbled upon your site a few months ago and have been keenly reading your thoughts. I also watched the Catalyst program with a certain amount of disdain! I wonder how much money a carbon tax/ global warming dilemma can generate?

        • Ken Stewart Says:

          Welcome aboard Nicole and watch for another update next week. I was raised on a farm too (Biggenden area). I should point out that my forecasts are in no way meant to be for any specific locations, but for the sub-tropical region as a whole. Rain has a nasty habit of skipping around hills! And sometimes a disturbance will just bring clouds or a wind change with no rain.

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