This page will be reposted towards the end of August, as soon as I have enough RAINFALL and minimum temperature data.
I delayed posting until the July rain event ceased, and since then I’ve been busy moving house so haven’t been able to give this much attention. Also I’ve had some internet connection problems!
Last month I tipped “The next major weather enhancement is likely to be late June to early July.”
This is how we went:
The July rain event eventually petered out about 16 July, so it lasted a week longer than I expected, and was much heavier than anyone thought.
After further analysis, instead of just a month or so ahead I’m going to have a go at longer terms, starting with this:
For southern and central Queensland (Mackay to Longreach and south to the border), the next enhancements will be early to mid-August (which may last a week or two), another late September to mid-October, and maybe late October to early November. Indications are that there will be heavier rain events starting in the period early to mid-November and early to mid-December. These events may affect NSW as well, but I am restricting my study at this stage to Queensland.
Specifically, I’m expecting there may be a small rain event around 5-8 August and another probably larger one in the period 15-25 August, (I’m tipping close to 18-20 August).
I’ll try to improve my predictions for the spring rainfall events in future posts.
How’s that for going out on a limb?
I’m doing this to test (publicly) a hunch/ theory I have about rainfall patterns. Since September last year when I commenced predicting rain events I have been wrong once (I missed the return of the monsoon in mid-March), and this latest rain lasted longer than I expected, but generally I’ve been pretty darn close. Check back and see if you don’t believe me.