Weather Predictions to 30 June (and for June -September)

On 14 May my predictions for sub-tropical Queensland (St Lawrence to Longreach and south to the border) for June were:

Unsettled with several successive events for the next several weeks:

-31-1-2 June

June

5-6-7-8-9-10-11, 13-14-15-16-17, 20-21-22-23, 27-28-29-30

Results:

There were weather events on 1-2 June, 7-8 June, 10-14 June, 17-18 June, 21-22 June, and rain and cold in the south east especially for the past several days.  June 6 was a fail, but the others were pretty much on the money.  In the south east it has been very unsettled.

Here’s a graph of Rain, and 3 day averages of Tmin, Tmax, and Pressure, with predictions and results shown.results june 30

For the first 6 months of this year, results are:

42 out of 45 correct- 3 wrong and 2 missed events.  93.3% of predictions were correct, and 89.4% of events were predicted.  This system works, for the south east especially.  The alternative method I used for Capricornia works, but with less accuracy (+/- 2 days) but is still worth pursuing.

My predictions for the next 3 months are:

Continuing instability especially in south-east Queensland!  Weather events (not necessarily rain, but a wet winter and spring is likely) are expected on the days marked in bold, and in the range joined by hyphens:

July

2-3-4-5-6-7, 9-10-11-12-13, 15-16-17, 19-20-21-22, (24-25-26?) -27-28-29-30

August

1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9, 11-12-13-14, 15-16-17-18-19-20-21, 23-24-25, 27-28-29-30-31

September

1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9, 12-13-14-15, 18-19-20, 22-23-24-25-26-27-28

Those who doubt are welcome to make their own alternative predictions.

And incidentally, my method indicates weather events, probably storms, as far ahead as 6-7 December.

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6 Responses to “Weather Predictions to 30 June (and for June -September)”

  1. cementafriend Says:

    Ken, You are a bit hard on yourself, We had 2mm on 6th June (measured 8.30-9.00AM), You got the rest right but one you seem to have missed is this morning 2nd July. There was 12.7mm in the gauge at 9.00AM while the previous day the 1st had 4.7mm in the gauge. You know that weather can be very local and can be variable. Yesterday, started drizzley, then the sun came out enough to hang out the washing, then it started to drizzle around lunchtime (saved the washing), most of the rain was at night. Everything was wet but the sun came out about 9AM.
    For the record here is my rain for June
    1-4.8mm,3-0.3, 5-0.1, 6-2.0, 9-25.1, 10-71.0, 11-71.6, 12-4.7, 13-11.4, 14-0.4, 15-0.1, 21-0.4, 22-7.5, 28-7.1, 29-3.6, 30-5.1, 1stJuly-4.7

  2. Bill Johnston Says:

    Ken

    How do we contact you?

    Cheers,

    Bill Johnston

  3. TWilliams Says:

    Ken
    Do you share your research at all?

    Consulting fee etc?

    Tom Williams

    • Ken Stewart Says:

      I’ll gladly share with anyone interested. I’m still learning. No consulting fee- especially as i did say “a wet winter and spring is likely”.

  4. Tom Williams Says:

    Ken
    How do I contact you?

    Tom

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