No Excess Winter Warming for 103 Years!

Greenhouse Myth Buster No. 2

Another key indicator of greenhouse warming, a pattern of temperature change “uniquely associated with the enhanced greenhouse effect” according to Dr Braganza, is greater warming in winter compared with summer.

Not in Australia.

This is a graph of summer annual means minus winter annual means for the years 1910 – 2012, straight from BOM’s time series data.

summ-wint2012

No winter increase over summer in 103 years.  This summer- we find out in early March- will have to be less than +0.7 C above average to make  the trend ever so slightly negative (to 5 decimal places).

But then how will we get another “Angry Summer”?

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14 Responses to “No Excess Winter Warming for 103 Years!”

  1. Berynn Schwerdt Says:

    Caution using regional trends as proxy for global.

    • kenskingdom Says:

      True- but BOM, Climate Council et. al. have no qualms about using Australian temperature/ heat waves/ Angry Summers in their claims. What’s good for the goose…

  2. Berynn Schwerdt Says:

    What claims?

  3. kenskingdom Says:

    “Professor Steffen says the extreme weather patterns can be attributed to climate change, with the continued burning of fossil fuels trapping more heat in the lower atmosphere.”- Climate Council report, reported by ABC 16/1/14, referring to heatwaves in Australia. One of many examples.

  4. Berynn Schwerdt Says:

    He’s using a global proxy for regional.

    You’re using regional proxy for global.

    It’s hotter in Australia because the world is warming, works.

    The world is warming because it’s hotter in Australia, doesn’t work.

    Global mean – winters have warmed faster than summers over the long term.

    Regional – different results.

    Same with many effects, even “fingerprints” – eg, over the Antarctic, ozone-depleting CFCs influence stratospheric temps, muddying a clear analysis of strat cooling fingerprint.

    The question that comes to my mind after reading your recent posts:

    What global effects of global warming are projected to be the same for every region/sub-region?

  5. kenskingdom Says:

    Steffen is attributing Australian weather patterns (specifically warmer temperatures) to climate change due to the burning of fossil fuels. I attribute warmer temperatures in Australia to warmer temperatures. Rainfall/ drought patterns, and associated cloudiness/ humidity/ vegetation changes, largely as a result of ENSO, are the major cause, but there has been a long term natural warming with a small amount of greenhouse warming. Years, winters, nights may well be warmer in the future, and will surely vary regionally.

  6. Berynn Schwerdt Says:

    Any given day, month, or year of extreme temps will mainly be caused by weather. No argument. An underlying forcing causing a general change in the system will also have an influence. Thus, the record-breaking heat last year is mainly because of solar exposure 9less cloudiness), but the extreme weather would not have been as great, and almost certainly not a record-breaker without the influence of GHGs (based on a published probability study).

    Steffen/ABC report here

    Whereas the ABC reports “the extreme weather patterns” as being attributed to climate change. They don’t quote Steffen, so I don’t know if they reported accurately. The press frequently misinterprets the science/scientists.

    Steffen is quoted saying, some places are “at increased risk from many extreme weather events, including heatwaves”.

    The risks from extremes under global for Australia that I know of are – drought, flooding, heatwaves. If there is a long-term forcing component operating beneath the usual weather, then more record-breakers in the future are going to happen.

    In general, the more energy in a system, the extreme is the behaviour of that system (there are exceptions). It would be surprising if weather became less dynamic as the globe warmed.

  7. Berynn Schwerdt Says:

    The Climate Council press release is here: http://www.climatecouncil.org.au/interim-heatwaves/

    Steffen says, “It is clear that climate change is making heatwaves more frequent and severe. Heatwaves have become hotter and longer, and they are starting earlier in the season.”

    “Australia has always had hot weather. However, climate change is loading the dice toward more extreme hot weather.”

    • kenskingdom Says:

      Re this and your previous comment:
      We may have to agree to disagree on this. It is entirely reasonable to discuss the Australian region’s response or lack thereof to various climate signals. I will continue to show counter examples from the Australian, southern hemisphere, and global contexts.

    • Berynn Schwerdt Says:

      There are many examples in local areas that run counter to general ideas about global warming. The climate blogosphere abounds with them.

      If I were to do the opposite – trawl for every locale that exceeded global warming expectations (eg, Arctic sea ice dwindling faster than models, sea level rising faster than models, areas of the sea where rise has been measured in centimeters rather than millimeters, rural locations where the temperature rise has been 1.5C/decade for the last 30 years etc), what would that prove?

      For many years Anthony Watts lambasted the US temperature record. He posted photos of weather stations poorly sited, wrote articles about US cities and towns that had a cooling trend, claimed the warming temperature record was mainly a result of UHI, and scoffed at adjustments he showed from raw v adjusted temps for a variety of locations in the US, always selecting the adjustments that made the present (a lot) warmer.

      When 2.5 years ago he had his first and only study reviewed and published in the literature, a comprehensive analysis of US temperature data comparing weather stations that he and his helpers has classified as “good” stations, he found that the mean temps and trends he came up with matched the official records. He also applied time of observation adjustments, which he had mocked over and over.

      He never admitted it publicly – you have to read the paper to find that out. Instead, he opened an entirely new topic, problems with max/min biases and that the diurnal trend range seemed to be flat according to his study. Previous studies had found similar, but suddenly these issues had currency for Watts. He found a new angle of attack when the original line was gazumped by his own study.

      There is absolutely no doubt that he has an agenda, and no interest in a neutral discussion of all the facts. His site is a terrible source of one sided information and misinformation. All he wants to do is publish anything that conforms to his messaging.

      Cherry-picking facts that conform with a preferred viewpoint doesn’t shed light, it muddies the water.

  8. Mike R Says:

    Ken your results are interesting but somewhat misleading as the situation is much more complex than what you have presented. You should have extended your analysis to include the satellite data and have a look at not only the mean but maxima and minima data from the B.O.M.

    • In contrast to the mean temperatures for the BOM data, the UAH satellite data gives a negative slope (summer-winter) of -0.14 degrees per decade in accordance with CO2 global warming.

    The maximum and minimum BOM data give the following slopes for the line of best fit.

    • The difference between the maxima (summer-winter) has a negative slope (-0.04 degrees per decade for the period 1910-2013.
    • The difference between the minima (summer-winter) has a positive slope (+0.044 degrees per decade for the period 1910-2013.

    The magnitude of the slopes for the maxima and minima data are approximately the same but with opposite signs. This accounts for your results that show that the slope of mean temperature differences is close to zero.

    The positive slope for the minima of +0.044 degrees per decade is most likely a result of atmospheric dynamics being much different for the minima as compared to the maxima. In particular the minima are more strongly influenced by ground temperatures as wind speeds and atmospheric mixing are known to be stronger during the heat of the day than during the cool of the night. Correspondingly the mixing of the air during the days will mean the maxima temperatures will more closely match the UAH lower troposphere temperatures compared to the minima which are more affected by the terrestrial temperatures at night.

    So if we acknowledge these differences then it is clear that the B.O.M. data does not contradict the standard CO2 climate modelling.

    The following are the relevant links for the UAH and BOM data ,

    • the UAH data for 1979-2013 is at http://www.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc_lt_5.6.txt).
    • BOM maxima for summer at http://www.bom.gov.au/web01/ncc/www/cli_chg/timeseries/tmax/1202/aus/latest.txt
    • BOM maxima for winter at http://www.bom.gov.au/web01/ncc/www/cli_chg/timeseries/tmax/0608/aus/latest.txt for
    • BOM minima for summer at http://www.bom.gov.au/web01/ncc/www/cli_chg/timeseries/tmin/1202/aus/latest.txt and for
    • winter at http://www.bom.gov.au/web01/ncc/www/cli_chg/timeseries/tmin/0608/aus/latest.txt ).

    • kenskingdom Says:

      Mike, I must apologize, your comment was caught in the spam filter for two months and somehow I wasn’t alerted. I am aware of (and use) data at all those links.

      • Mike R Says:

        Ken, many thanks for letting me know what had happened to my comments. Much appreciated, as I thought my comments had been moderated out of existence. In light of this, I might add, if you don’t mind, some comments to your more recent material.

        By the way, the links I posted above were so anyone with minimal Excel skills could easily check for themselves the validity or otherwise of my comments.

        Thanks again,

        Mike.

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