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An Apology

September 7, 2011

I have not been able to give much attention to this blog for the past couple of months due to family circumstances, so I am sorry to be well
behind with my posts.

September Global temperature is posted below, but it will be a week or two at least until the first of my next posts, which will be:

  • An analysis of the BOM explanations for their adjustments to the raw temperature data
  • Long term SOI influences on global temperature
  • An analysis of Australian minima 1910-2010.

Thanks for your patience.

Global Temperature Page- September

September 7, 2011

This page will be reposted around the middle of each month, as soon as SOI and UAH data for the previous month are available. The August UAH value is +0.33 making the running 12 month mean +0.20 +/- 0.1.

Month

Predicted 12 month running mean

Actual UAH 12 month mean

March 2011

+0.29 +/- 0.05

+0.27

April 2011

+0.23 +/- 0.05

+0.25

May 2011

+0.21 +/- 0.05

+0.22

June 2011

+0.16 +/- 0.1

+0.21

July 2011

+0.12 +/- 0.1

+0.21

August 2011

+0.07 +/- 0.1

+0.20

September 2011

+0.01 +/- 0.1

October 2011

+0.01 +/- 0.1

November 2011

0 +/- 0.1

December 2011

0.02 +/- 0.1

January 2012

0.05+/- 0.1

February 2012

0.04+/- 0.1

 

My short term predictions are straying from the observations, so some adjustments to my methodology are necessary. With La Nina seeming likely, I have factored in SOI values of +10 until April next year.

Here is a plot of my expected long term values of the 12 month running mean of UAH anomalies, barring major volcanic eruptions or a significant shift in climate regime (which certainly is on the cards).

My tip is that temperatures will be largely in the middle to lower portion, but will rise towards the upper limit with El Ninos. This will be the subject of a large post I have been promising for months but am little closer to completing.

I’m also tipping a significant weather event in Eastern Australia (storms or rain) around the end of September to the first week in October, give or take a few days.

Global Temperature Page- August

August 5, 2011

This page will be reposted around the middle of each month, as soon as SOI and UAH data for the previous month are available.

The July UAH value has kicked up to +0.37 making the running 12 month mean +0.21 +/-  0.1.

Month

12 month running mean

Actual UAH  12 month mean

March 2011

+0.29 +/- 0.05

+0.27

April 2011

+0.23 +/- 0.05

+0.25

May 2011

+0.21 +/- 0.05

+0.22

June 2011

+0.16 +/- 0.1

+0.21

July 2011

+0.12 +/- 0.1

+0.21

August            2011

+0.07   +/- 0.1

September 2011

+0.01 +/- 0.1

October 2011

+0.01 +/- 0.1

November 2011

0 +/- 0.1

December 2011

0.02 +/- 0.1

January 2012

0.05+/- 0.1

 

 

 

 

 

 I have extended the plot to December 2012 (with SOI values of 0, or neutral), but playing with the long term values I use by decreasing the 10 year SOI influence gives this:

So not so good at short term prediction, but I will shortly post to show long term values.

The SOI has risen sharply, leading to the possibility of another La Nina event.  We may get another wet spring and summer wet season in Australia, and although BOM has tipped a warm spring outlook (and temperatures have certainly warmed in the past couple of weeks) they’ve been wrong before.  I expect average to cooler temperatures across eastern Australia.

January global 12 month mean anomaly should be +0.05 +/- 0.1.

 

Global Temperature Page- July 2011

July 11, 2011

 

This page will be reposted around the middle of each month, as soon as SOI and UAH data for the previous month are available.

 

The June UAH value has kicked up to +0.32 making the running 12 month mean +0.21 +/-  0.1.  That’s 0.05 above my prediction. (Still close but starting to break away.  I knew I’d get burnt sooner or later.)

 

However, let’s continue.  My December prediction for the 12 month running mean- and therefore the mean anomaly for 2011- is +0.02 +/- 0.1.

 

Month

12 month running mean

Actual UAH  12 month mean

March 2011

+0.29 +/- 0.05

+0.27

April 2011

+0.23 +/- 0.05

+0.25

May 2011

+0.21 +/- 0.05

+0.22

June 2011

+0.16 +/- 0.1

+0.21

July 2011

+0.12 +/- 0.1

August            2011

+0.07   +/- 0.1

September 2011

+0.01 +/- 0.1

October 2011

+0.01 +/- 0.1

November 2011

0 +/- 0.1

December 2011

0.02 +/- 0.1

 

I’m expecting another downturn, from my reading of the plot of Global Oceanic Reflected Sunlight by Dr Roy Spencer last week.  Whether that will lead to 12 month means bottoming out as I have predicted remains to be seen.  And that is entirely the point of these posts- to test a possible methodology for linking SOI values to global temperatures.


An Apology from the Bureau!

June 21, 2011

Regular readers will remember the continuing correspondence I have had with the Bureau of Meteorology and Minister Tony Burke.  After my last letter, and more than 7 months after my original request, on 1 June I received some information by anonymous email, and today I received this letter from Dr Greg Ayers, the Director of BOM, dated 15 June.

Dear Mr Stewart

Thank you for your letter of 20 May 2011  to the Minister for Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities, the Hon Tony Burke MP, regarding the provision of climate data.  I have been requested to respond.

Further to my letter of 10 February 2011, I sincerely regret the delay in providing the data and information you requested.  I understand that the material in question has been emailed to you and should have been received on 1 June.

Thank you for your interest in the Bureau’s work.

Yours sincerely

(G. AYERS)

DIRECTOR OF METEOROLOGY

I thank Dr Ayers for his apology.  I think I’ll frame it.

I will post an analysis of the information provided in a couple of weeks.

Global Temperature Page- June 2011

June 13, 2011

This page will be reposted around the middle of each month, as soon as SOI and UAH data for the previous month are available.

After some more consideration and tinkering with the methodology, I have fine tuned the prototype method a little.  As well, I realise it is foolish to attempt too much accuracy for a very chaotic system.  Therefore, my error margins are once again set to +/- 0.1C.

Note in this table  I have kept my previous values; I am experimenting with a slightly different method.

Month

12 month running mean

Actual UAH  12 month mean

March 2011

+0.29 +/- 0.05

+0.27

April 2011

+0.23 +/- 0.05

+0.25

May 2011

+0.21 +/- 0.05

+0.22

June 2011

+0.16 +/- 0.1

July 2011

+0.12 +/- 0.1

August            2011

+0.07   +/- 0.1

September 2011

+0.01 +/- 0.1

October 2011

+0.01 +/- 0.1

November 2011

0 +/- 0.1

As the SOI values change, I am looking forward to seeing how the UAH changes.  With the rapid change in SOI we have seen, we can expect either under or over shooting my calculations, or a change in timing.  All good data for improving my methodology!

Here is my new plot of 12 month mean temperature anomaly forecasts until the end of the year, as La Nina fades out and the SOI returns to neutral.  If the SOI again goes strongly positive, the temperatures will go lower. (In this graph, SOI is inverted).  

Note that there are some differences with previous plots due to my experimenting with a different methodology, resulting in better long term approximations, but 2010 values are different.  As my primary objective is to develop a method of approximating long term temperatures, short term variation is not so important.  But it is interesting!

(May plot)

It has become apparent to me that there is variation not only vertically (i.e. calculated values for a given month) but also laterally: the lag between SOI and temperature varies between 3 – 4 months and 7 – 8 months.  The system wobbles.

Please note- I started this method in March 2011.  Please refer to

http://kenskingdom.wordpress.com/2011/04/05/can-we-predict-future-temperatures/

I will expand on my method in a future post.

Ken Stewart,  13 June 2011

Profits of Doom

May 24, 2011

International climax expert Professor Tom Foolery today warned Australian men that “It’s worse than we thought.”

“By the end of the century, extreme climax events are going to be more frequent.  Partners will expect such events not once a year, but once a month, even ten times a month.  I don’t think Aussie men are up to it.  It will be the end of life as we know it.  Thank goodness I won’t be around to see it,” Professor Foolery said.

Fellow Biblical prophecy expert Professor Will E. Stepinit agreed, saying,  “The end is nigh.  Verily I say unto you, the seas will rise up and swallow you; yea, even unto the hundredth centimetre.  You may not see any rise yet, but your children and your children’s children will surely not have so far to go to the beach.”

Another nappy change expert, Professor Huggies, also said on ABC Radio, “We haven’t noticed so much sea level rise because the land is rising too; but the sea is still rising.  In fact it’s doubled in the last 20 years.  You fools can’t see it because the whole of Australia has risen twice as fast in the past 20 years as well.  Geologists are just too dumb to notice.”

I asked an Aussie bloke what he thought of the predictions of these profits- (Is that the right spelling?  That’s what they do.)- from the Climate Commission.

“Tell ‘em they’re dreamin’, ” he said.

Second Open Letter to Tony Burke

May 23, 2011

Readers may be wondering if I have received any explanation from BOM for the worst of the adjustments to the raw temperature data I identified last year (here and here, and update).  The short answer is no,  so I sent a reminder.

19 May 2011

The Hon Tony Burke MP

Minister for Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities

PO Box 6022
House of Representatives
Parliament House
Canberra ACT 2600

Dear Mr Burke

I refer to the letter written on your behalf by Dr Greg Ayers dated 10 February 2011 (Ref. Exec 11-0009), previous correspondence, and the Open Letter to you I sent via email on 23 February 2011  (copy attached).

In his letter, Dr Ayers wrote “I have asked our Climate Data Services Section to provide you with the specific data you have requested in your letter.”

The specific data includes complete details, including station metadata, of the reasons for the large adjustments to the temperature records of the following sites: Omeo, Deniliquin Post Office, Nhill, Wagga Wagga AMO, Kellerberrin, and of the following Urban sites (not used in climate analyses but adjusted): Wangaratta Aero, Echuca Aerodrome, Benalla Shadford St, and Dubbo Airport AWS.

As it is now 99 days, or over 3 months, since the date of Dr Ayers’ letter, it appears that a reminder is necessary to ensure this is followed up.  This is extraordinary for such an important Ministry and reflects poorly on the Bureau of Meteorology, its Director, and the responsible Minister.

This delay could indicate either (a) inefficiency, or (b) incompetence, or (c) simple contempt for mere mortal taxpayers.

However, I am beginning to suspect there is another reason.  There is a history of delay in this matter.  It is 13 months since my first queries to Dr Jones, 10 months since I asked Dr Jones for an explanation of the apparent discrepancy between raw and adjusted data, and 7 months since my letter of complaint to you, and I am still no closer to finding the reasons for the large data adjustments.

Perhaps Dr Ayers hopes I will give up and the issue may be quietly forgotten.  This will not happen.

Or perhaps the delay is because there really are no documented reasons for the adjustments.  The longer the delay continues, the more that suspicion will grow.

I expect to receive the promised information by 24 June.

I have copied this letter to The Hon Greg Hunt MP,  Shadow Minister for Climate Action, Environment and Heritage.

I have also posted it on my blog at kenskingdom.wordpress.com.

Yours sincerely

Ken Stewart

Global Temperature Page- May 2011

May 5, 2011

This page will be reposted around the middle of each month, as soon as SOI and UAH data for the previous month are available.

Updated 18 May

I have developed a rough “rule of thumb” method for approximating annual temperature anomalies using long term values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI).   My predictions for the 12 month running mean of global atmospheric temperature anomalies measured by satellite sensors and recorded as the UAH (University of Alabama, Huntsville) record:-

Month

Predicted 12 month running mean

Actual UAH  12 month mean

March 2011

+0.29 +/- 0.05

+0.27

April 2011

+0.23 +/- 0.05

 +0.25
(The following will be fine tuned and updated as new data become available.)

May 2011

+0.21 +/- 0.05

June 2011

+0.16

July 2011

+0.13

August 2011

+0.07

September 2011

+0.02

October 2011

 +0.01

Here is the plot of 12 month mean temperature anomaly forecasts until the end of the year, assuming La Nina fades out and the SOI returns to 0 for May and June.  If the SOI again goes strongly positive, the temperatures will go lower. (In this graph, SOI is inverted).

(Official UAH has not yet been updated for April due to the tornadoes, but Dr Roy Spencer reports +0.12.  This seems high but we shall see.  October 12 month average will be about +0.01.  With the SOI dropping rapidly I expect to see the 12 month mean temperatures bottom out in the last 3 months of the year.)

Please note- I started this method in March 2011.  Please refer to

http://kenskingdom.wordpress.com/2011/04/05/can-we-predict-future-temperatures/

I will expand on my method in a future post.

Ken Stewart, May 2011

CO2 and Temperature

April 12, 2011

Ken Stewart, April 2011

Surely this has been shown before.  If not, it should have been.  If it has, it bears repeating.

As we all know,  an increase in carbon dioxide concentration leads to an   increase in global temperatures.  Right?

Wrong.  Exactly the reverse.

Now don’t get me wrong. There is a greenhouse effect, whereby greenhouse gases have made the earth’s temperature more than it would be without them.  We are pumping extra carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, so that CO2 levels are steadily increasing.  And temperatures appear to have been rising- certainly atmospheric temperatures have risen since 1979.

However, since carbon dioxide concentration measurements began at Mauna Loa in 1958, temperature has changed before carbon dioxide has.  That’s right, a change in temperature leads to a change in carbon dioxide concentration.

Here’s a graph showing CO2 concentration (reduced to compare with the temperatures) and global mean temperature recorded by UAH.  Red is for temperature, and CO2 concentration is “suitably” black.

Figure 1.

It is plainly obvious that CO2 levels are rising, and temperatures have been rising.  Temperatures fluctuate up an down quite a bit, and there is a regular annual wave in CO2 concentration believed to result from seasonal Northern Hemisphere  biomass growth and dieback.  It seems intuitive that with seasonal temperature rise, trees and grasses grow rapidly, absorbing CO2, and this causes CO2 concentration to fall.  In autumn and winter, as temperatures fall, the rotting biomass releases CO2.

Yet it’s not so simple.  I’ve included a 12 month running mean.  The small reduction in the rise of CO2 can be seen in the early 1990s, and a small lift about 1999-2000.  What could explain these variations?  Variations in energy consumption?

Nope- Mt Pinatubo and the 1998 El Nino.

Here’s a graph of changes in temperature and changes in CO2 concentration.

Figure 2

I calculated the difference in temperature and CO2 between each month and the month preceding, and smoothed the results with 12 month running means, which therefore overlap all seasons.  Remember this represents change in temperature and CO2, not absolute values.  Remember also that this is worldwide, so is not limited to seasonal changes.  Notice that change in temperature occurs before a change in CO2.  There appears to be a lag of from 3 to 9 months, and possibly 12 months, especially marked when there is a rapid change in temperature, and not so rapid for smaller change.  Smaller, slower changes appear to be overshadowed by the large seasonal variation, depending on the timing.

I also compared CO2 with HadcruT temperature data from 1958, the start of the Mauna Loa record, although I am not fond of any surface record because of potential problems with surface station siting and adjustments.  Still, it is a temperature record, and I am not interested in absolute temperature but change.

Figure 3

Again note that after a 3 to 9 month lag behind temperature change, sometimes up to 12 months, CO2 concentration changes.

It has been suggested that the small dip visible in Figure 1, in 2008 (circled), is a response to reduced industrial output from the Global Financial Crisis.  Figure 2 and Figure 3 show that this was not the case, and that the drop in CO2 was a response to lower temperature.

Conclusion:

  • Carbon dioxide concentration, while increasing year to year, responds to temperature change after a lag of some months- not the reverse.
  • We can predict that the CO2 concentration over the 2011-2012 period will have a smaller increase than normal, following the dropping temperatures.
  • Provided that global CO2 output continues at current rates, we should be able to project future CO2 concentration from current temperatures several months in advance, and indeed from trends in the Southern Oscillation Index.
  • It should be possible to quantify the relationship between temperature change and CO2 change.

We live in interesting times!


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