Can We Predict Future Temperatures? Update

Ken Stewart, 5 April 2011

Updated 15 April, 1 May 2011

[The March 2011 UAH anomaly has come in at -0.1C, which makes the 12 month mean +0.27C.  0.02 out- not too bad!

My prediction for April is +0.23C.]

This is an interim post to flag an upcoming article.  I am working on an hypothesis- still in the “prototype” stage- concerning the relationship between long term SOI values and global temperature anomalies.

As a test of the predictive capability of this hypothesis, I have made an estimate of the running 12 month mean of the global anomalies to March 2011.  The estimate will be checked against the March figure to be announced on the UAH website at http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt in the next few days.

I estimate the 12 month running mean of UAH anomalies will be 0.29.   If this is wrong, I’ll have to rework my calculations.  If right, I will continue to fine tune formulae so as to make further estimates.

Here is the background.

This is the SOI since 1876 inverted, to show the relationship with temperature more clearly.

The inverted values show the SOI, and, this hypothesis will show, temperatures as well, trending down.

The running 12 month mean of SOI values with the UAH figures which begin in 1979.

The strong possibility is that a new 10-12 year cycle of El Ninos will begin after the current La Nina finishes.

The 1979 – 2011 plot clearly shows the 5 to 7 month lag in temperatures.

When the SOI is advanced 7 months, the match is close- but still does not explain the high temperatures of 2010.  (Large volcanic eruptions in 1982 and 1991 depressed temperatures for years afterwards.)

Here is the running mean for a decade of SOI values- 120 months.  The Great Climate Shift of the late 1970s is clearly visible, showing the massive change to predominantly El Nino conditions.  Note also the repeated rise and fall over several decades, and what I call “the many horned beasts” of El Nino peaks (just to be a bit melodramatically Biblical).

I am interested in the apparent lag between these means and global temperatures- between 10 and 12 years.  My hypothesis is that by interacting with current SOI values through thermal inertia of the oceans, decadal means influence global temperature, to the extent that temperatures can be estimated with some accuracy 7 months in advance, and temperature trends for the coming decade can be indicated for a variety of scenarios.

This hypothesis can be tested and refined by comparing with monthly global means, which is why the March UAH anomaly is crucial.

Time will tell.

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