An Apology from the Bureau!

Regular readers will remember the continuing correspondence I have had with the Bureau of Meteorology and Minister Tony Burke.  After my last letter, and more than 7 months after my original request, on 1 June I received some information by anonymous email, and today I received this letter from Dr Greg Ayers, the Director of BOM, dated 15 June.

Dear Mr Stewart

Thank you for your letter of 20 May 2011  to the Minister for Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities, the Hon Tony Burke MP, regarding the provision of climate data.  I have been requested to respond.

Further to my letter of 10 February 2011, I sincerely regret the delay in providing the data and information you requested.  I understand that the material in question has been emailed to you and should have been received on 1 June.

Thank you for your interest in the Bureau’s work.

Yours sincerely

(G. AYERS)

DIRECTOR OF METEOROLOGY

I thank Dr Ayers for his apology.  I think I’ll frame it.

I will post an analysis of the information provided in a couple of weeks.

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Global Temperature Page- June 2011

This page will be reposted around the middle of each month, as soon as SOI and UAH data for the previous month are available.

After some more consideration and tinkering with the methodology, I have fine tuned the prototype method a little.  As well, I realise it is foolish to attempt too much accuracy for a very chaotic system.  Therefore, my error margins are once again set to +/- 0.1C.

Note in this table  I have kept my previous values; I am experimenting with a slightly different method.

Month	12 month running mean	Actual UAH  12 month mean
March 2011	+0.29 +/- 0.05	+0.27
April 2011	+0.23 +/- 0.05	+0.25
May 2011	+0.21 +/- 0.05	+0.22
June 2011	+0.16 +/- 0.1
July 2011	+0.12 +/- 0.1
August            2011	+0.07   +/- 0.1
September 2011	+0.01 +/- 0.1
October 2011	+0.01 +/- 0.1
November 2011	0 +/- 0.1

As the SOI values change, I am looking forward to seeing how the UAH changes.  With the rapid change in SOI we have seen, we can expect either under or over shooting my calculations, or a change in timing.  All good data for improving my methodology!

Here is my new plot of 12 month mean temperature anomaly forecasts until the end of the year, as La Nina fades out and the SOI returns to neutral.  If the SOI again goes strongly positive, the temperatures will go lower. (In this graph, SOI is inverted).  

Note that there are some differences with previous plots due to my experimenting with a different methodology, resulting in better long term approximations, but 2010 values are different.  As my primary objective is to develop a method of approximating long term temperatures, short term variation is not so important.  But it is interesting!

(May plot)

It has become apparent to me that there is variation not only vertically (i.e. calculated values for a given month) but also laterally: the lag between SOI and temperature varies between 3 – 4 months and 7 – 8 months.  The system wobbles.

Please note- I started this method in March 2011.  Please refer to

https://kenskingdom.wordpress.com/2011/04/05/can-we-predict-future-temperatures/

I will expand on my method in a future post.

Ken Stewart,  13 June 2011