Global Temperature Page- July 2011

 

This page will be reposted around the middle of each month, as soon as SOI and UAH data for the previous month are available.

 

The June UAH value has kicked up to +0.32 making the running 12 month mean +0.21 +/-  0.1.  That’s 0.05 above my prediction. (Still close but starting to break away.  I knew I’d get burnt sooner or later.)

 

However, let’s continue.  My December prediction for the 12 month running mean- and therefore the mean anomaly for 2011- is +0.02 +/- 0.1.

 

Month

12 month running mean

Actual UAH  12 month mean

March 2011

+0.29 +/- 0.05

+0.27

April 2011

+0.23 +/- 0.05

+0.25

May 2011

+0.21 +/- 0.05

+0.22

June 2011

+0.16 +/- 0.1

+0.21

July 2011

+0.12 +/- 0.1

August            2011

+0.07   +/- 0.1

September 2011

+0.01 +/- 0.1

October 2011

+0.01 +/- 0.1

November 2011

0 +/- 0.1

December 2011

0.02 +/- 0.1

 

I’m expecting another downturn, from my reading of the plot of Global Oceanic Reflected Sunlight by Dr Roy Spencer last week.  Whether that will lead to 12 month means bottoming out as I have predicted remains to be seen.  And that is entirely the point of these posts- to test a possible methodology for linking SOI values to global temperatures.


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