Archive for August, 2011

Global Temperature Page- August

August 5, 2011

This page will be reposted around the middle of each month, as soon as SOI and UAH data for the previous month are available.

The July UAH value has kicked up to +0.37 making the running 12 month mean +0.21 +/-  0.1.

Month

12 month running mean

Actual UAH  12 month mean

March 2011

+0.29 +/- 0.05

+0.27

April 2011

+0.23 +/- 0.05

+0.25

May 2011

+0.21 +/- 0.05

+0.22

June 2011

+0.16 +/- 0.1

+0.21

July 2011

+0.12 +/- 0.1

+0.21

August            2011

+0.07   +/- 0.1

September 2011

+0.01 +/- 0.1

October 2011

+0.01 +/- 0.1

November 2011

0 +/- 0.1

December 2011

0.02 +/- 0.1

January 2012

0.05+/- 0.1

 

 

 

 

 

 I have extended the plot to December 2012 (with SOI values of 0, or neutral), but playing with the long term values I use by decreasing the 10 year SOI influence gives this:

So not so good at short term prediction, but I will shortly post to show long term values.

The SOI has risen sharply, leading to the possibility of another La Nina event.  We may get another wet spring and summer wet season in Australia, and although BOM has tipped a warm spring outlook (and temperatures have certainly warmed in the past couple of weeks) they’ve been wrong before.  I expect average to cooler temperatures across eastern Australia.

January global 12 month mean anomaly should be +0.05 +/- 0.1.