Global Temperature Page- October

This page will be reposted around the middle of each month, as soon as SOI and UAH data for the previous month are available.

The September UAH value is +0.29  making the running 12 month mean +0.19 +/- 0.1.

Month

Predicted 12 month running mean

Actual UAH 12 month mean

March 2011

+0.29 +/- 0.05

+0.27

April 2011

+0.23 +/- 0.05

+0.25

May 2011

+0.21 +/- 0.05

+0.22

June 2011

+0.16 +/- 0.1

+0.21

July 2011

+0.12 +/- 0.1

+0.21

August 2011

+0.07 +/- 0.1

+0.20

September 2011

+0.01 +/- 0.1

+0.19

October 2011

+0.01 +/- 0.1

 

November 2011

0 +/- 0.1

 

December 2011

0.02 +/- 0.1

 

January 2012

0.05+/- 0.1

 

February 2012

0.04+/- 0.1

 

March 2012

0.15 +/- 0.1

 

My short term predictions are straying from the observations, with the levelling out appearing to be 4 to 5 months earlier than I expected.  However, a sharp drop in October UAH is expected.   

When I first started posting this series, I hoped to be able to estimate temperatures 7 months in advance.  That appears to be falsified as the temperature lag seems to be much less this year.  (The lag should be between 5 and 9 months, typically 7, but I have been using 6 months for some time.  The climate oscillations appear to vary in frequency as well as amplitude, if you like.)  So from the end of 2011 on I will concentrate on long term estimates.

Here is a plot of my expected long term values of the 12 month running mean of UAH anomalies, barring major volcanic eruptions or a significant shift in climate regime (which certainly is on the cards).   Any small changes you may detect from the last post are due to the fact that I have been playing with adjustments to the formula I have been devising.  I am predicting that the 12 month running mean of global UAH will not go above + 0.6 at any time in the next 11 years, which would be needed to maintain the current trend.  It may go above +0.5 in 2013-14 and 2017-18, but my tip is that temperatures will be largely in the middle to lower portion of this plot, but will rise towards the upper limit with El Ninos.  I’ve been wrong before of course.  This will be the subject of a large post I have been promising for months but am little closer to completing.

The “significant weather event in Eastern Australia (storms or rain) around the end of September to the first week in October, give or take a few days”, which I predicted in my September post, arrived in bucketloads, and has extended into the middle of October, the traditional storm season.  The storms haven’t reached this far north but have hit south-east Queensland hard. 

Storms are also building across the Top End, Gulf Country, and Cape York.  I’m tipping an early start to the Wet, with a monsoon trough appearing on Australian weather maps by mid November (35-49 days from the beginning of October).

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