Archive for November, 2011

Global Temperature Page- November

November 6, 2011

This page will be reposted around the middle of each month, as soon as SOI and UAH data for the previous month are
available.

The October UAH value is +0.11  making the running 12 month mean +0.17 +/- 0.1.  The sharp drop arrived as expected.  October SOI is 7.3.

Month

Predicted 12 month running mean

Actual UAH 12 month mean

March 2011

+0.29 +/- 0.05

+0.27

April 2011

+0.23 +/- 0.05

+0.25

May 2011

+0.21 +/- 0.05

+0.22

June 2011

+0.16 +/- 0.1

+0.21

July 2011

+0.12 +/- 0.1

+0.21

August 2011

+0.07 +/- 0.1

+0.20

September 2011

+0.01 +/- 0.1

+0.19

October 2011

+0.01 +/- 0.1

+0.17

November 2011

0 +/- 0.1

December 2011

0.02 +/- 0.1

January 2012

0.05+/- 0.1

February 2012

0.04+/- 0.1

March 2012

0.15 +/- 0.1

April 2012

0.18 +/- 0.1

When I first started posting this series, I hoped to be able to estimate temperatures 7 months in advance.  That
appears to be falsified as the temperature lag seems to be much less this year.  (The lag should be between 5 and 9 months,
typically 7, but I have been using 6 months for some time.  The climate oscillations appear to vary in frequency as well as amplitude, if you like.)
So from the end of 2011 on I will concentrate on long term estimates.

I’m tipping an early start to the Wet, with a monsoon trough (and possibly a tropical low) appearing on Australian weather maps by mid November (35-49 days from the beginning of October).  The next significant weather system to affect eastern Australia I expect from mid to late November.  This is due to upper level disturbances generated apparently by the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the Indian Ocean.

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