This page will be reposted around the middle of each month, as soon as SOI and UAH data for the previous month are
available.
The October UAH value is +0.11 making the running 12 month mean +0.17 +/- 0.1. The sharp drop arrived as expected. October SOI is 7.3.
|
Month |
Predicted 12 month running mean |
Actual UAH 12 month mean |
|
March 2011 |
+0.29 +/- 0.05 |
+0.27 |
|
April 2011 |
+0.23 +/- 0.05 |
+0.25 |
|
May 2011 |
+0.21 +/- 0.05 |
+0.22 |
|
June 2011 |
+0.16 +/- 0.1 |
+0.21 |
|
July 2011 |
+0.12 +/- 0.1 |
+0.21 |
|
August 2011 |
+0.07 +/- 0.1 |
+0.20 |
|
September 2011 |
+0.01 +/- 0.1 |
+0.19 |
|
October 2011 |
+0.01 +/- 0.1 |
+0.17 |
|
November 2011 |
0 +/- 0.1 |
|
|
December 2011 |
0.02 +/- 0.1 |
|
|
January 2012 |
0.05+/- 0.1 |
|
|
February 2012 |
0.04+/- 0.1 |
|
|
March 2012 |
0.15 +/- 0.1 |
|
|
April 2012 |
0.18 +/- 0.1 |
When I first started posting this series, I hoped to be able to estimate temperatures 7 months in advance. That
appears to be falsified as the temperature lag seems to be much less this year. (The lag should be between 5 and 9 months,
typically 7, but I have been using 6 months for some time. The climate oscillations appear to vary in frequency as well as amplitude, if you like.)
So from the end of 2011 on I will concentrate on long term estimates.
I’m tipping an early start to the Wet, with a monsoon trough (and possibly a tropical low) appearing on Australian weather maps by mid November (35-49 days from the beginning of October). The next significant weather system to affect eastern Australia I expect from mid to late November. This is due to upper level disturbances generated apparently by the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the Indian Ocean.
kenskingdom 