Global Temperature Page- November

This page will be reposted around the middle of each month, as soon as SOI and UAH data for the previous month are
available.

The October UAH value is +0.11  making the running 12 month mean +0.17 +/- 0.1.  The sharp drop arrived as expected.  October SOI is 7.3.

Month

Predicted 12 month running mean

Actual UAH 12 month mean

March 2011

+0.29 +/- 0.05

+0.27

April 2011

+0.23 +/- 0.05

+0.25

May 2011

+0.21 +/- 0.05

+0.22

June 2011

+0.16 +/- 0.1

+0.21

July 2011

+0.12 +/- 0.1

+0.21

August 2011

+0.07 +/- 0.1

+0.20

September 2011

+0.01 +/- 0.1

+0.19

October 2011

+0.01 +/- 0.1

+0.17

November 2011

0 +/- 0.1

December 2011

0.02 +/- 0.1

January 2012

0.05+/- 0.1

February 2012

0.04+/- 0.1

March 2012

0.15 +/- 0.1

April 2012

0.18 +/- 0.1

When I first started posting this series, I hoped to be able to estimate temperatures 7 months in advance.  That
appears to be falsified as the temperature lag seems to be much less this year.  (The lag should be between 5 and 9 months,
typically 7, but I have been using 6 months for some time.  The climate oscillations appear to vary in frequency as well as amplitude, if you like.)
So from the end of 2011 on I will concentrate on long term estimates.

I’m tipping an early start to the Wet, with a monsoon trough (and possibly a tropical low) appearing on Australian weather maps by mid November (35-49 days from the beginning of October).  The next significant weather system to affect eastern Australia I expect from mid to late November.  This is due to upper level disturbances generated apparently by the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the Indian Ocean.

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