Global Temperature Page- December

This page will be reposted around the middle of January, as soon as SOI and UAH data for the previous month are available.

The November UAH value is +0.12  making the running 12 month mean +0.16 +/- 0.1.  November SOI is 13.8 and rising.

Month	Predicted 12 month running mean	Actual UAH 12 month mean
March 2011	+0.29 +/- 0.05	+0.27
April 2011	+0.23 +/- 0.05	+0.25
May 2011	+0.21 +/- 0.05	+0.22
June 2011	+0.16 +/- 0.1	+0.21
July 2011	+0.12 +/- 0.1	+0.21
August 2011	+0.07 +/- 0.1	+0.20
September 2011	+0.01 +/- 0.1	+0.19
October 2011	+0.01 +/- 0.1	+0.17
November 2011	0 +/- 0.1	+0.16
December 2011	0.07 +/- 0.1
January 2012	0.08+/- 0.1
February 2012	0.12+/- 0.1
March 2012	0.15 +/- 0.1
April 2012	0.17 +/- 0.1
May 2012	0.18 +/- 0.1

Last month I tipped an early start to the Wet, with a monsoon trough (and possibly a tropical low) appearing on Australian weather maps by mid November (35-49 days from the beginning of October).  I predicted the next significant weather system to affect eastern Australia from mid to late November.  These arrived as expected, with heavy rain and flooding in SE Queensland and Northern NSW:

Wet season storms and rain will continue, but the next major enhancement to weather with heavier rainfall should be in the last week of December to mid January.

From the end of 2011 on I will concentrate on long term estimates.

For what it’s worth, here’s my long range predictions for 12 month running mean global tropospheric temperatures over the next 10 years, excluding major volcanic eruptions or other unforseen factors, as recorded by UAH.  This is based on my analysis of the UAH record compared with the 120 month running mean of the Southern Oscillation Index with a lag of 11 years and the 12 month running mean of the SOI with a lag of 6 months.

The upper and lower limits are for the maximum and minimum historical values for the 12 month mean SOI (+23 and -23).   If the global 12 month means exceed the black line for more than 2 years I would consider this prediction falsified.

Advertisement