This page will be reposted around the middle of March, as soon as SOI and UAH data for the previous month are available.
The January UAH value is -0.09 making the running 12 month mean +0.15 +/- 0.1. January SOI was 9.4.
My predictions:
|
Month |
Actual UAH 12 month mean |
Predictions |
|
December 2011 |
+0.15 |
+0.12 |
|
January 2012 |
+0.15 |
+0.12 |
|
February 2012 |
|
+0.13 |
|
March 2012 |
|
+0.13 |
|
April 2012 |
|
+0.13 |
|
May 2012 |
|
+0.12 |
|
June 2012 |
|
+0.12 |
|
July 2012 |
|
+0.13 |
Last month I tipped “I expect the next major build up of heavy rain and possibly cyclones off the east coast around 22 January to mid February. This is the usual time for the arrival of the Wet season in this part of Queensland- when school starts.”
That was pretty much spot on, with heavy rain in SE Queensland, Northern NSW, Central and Southern Inland Queensland and Inland NSW with major flooding of inland rivers. Oddly, Queensland’s Central Coast missed most of this rain. Cyclone Jasmine also developed but moved away from the coast.
Here are 3 weekly rainfall maps showing how this developed.
The monsoon has now retreated and conditions are hot, sunny, and very humid. Normal wet season storms and showers will continue, but for Queensland and New South Wales the next major enhancement of rain with upper level disturbance, an active monsoon, and a possible cyclone will occur from 26 February to mid-March. This may be followed by another disturbance in early to mid April, after which conditions should settle.
The Madden-Julian Oscillation is supposed to affect mainly equatorial and tropical regions, so this pattern of upper level lows and monsoon advance may be due to some other factor; or else the MJO has far greater influence in La Nina periods.
kenskingdom 