Global Temperature Page and Eastern Australia Rain Predictions- March

This page will be reposted around the middle of April, as soon as SOI and UAH data for the previous month are available.

The February UAH value is -0.12  making the running 12 month mean +0.14 +/- 0.1.  February SOI was 2.5- dropping quickly.

My predictions:

Month

Actual UAH 12 month mean

Predictions

December 2011

+0.15

+0.12

January 2012

+0.15

+0.12

February 2012

+0.14

+0.13

March 2012

+0.13

April 2012

+0.13

May 2012

+0.12

June 2012

+0.12

July 2012

+0.13

August 2012

+0.15

SOI values have dropped.  If we enter a new El Nino phase we can expect global 12 month mean temperatures to rise rapidly in the last part of 2012 and 2013.  If we remain in a neutral phase, 12 month mean temperatures should stay in the +0.1 to +0.2 range for the next 18 months.  A renewed La Nina will lead to mean temperatures dropping below 0.0.

Last month I tipped “for Queensland and New South Wales the next major enhancement of rain with upper level disturbance, an active monsoon, and a possible cyclone will occur from 26 February to mid-March.”

Again that was pretty much spot on, with heavy rain in SE Queensland (24-25 February and 4-5 March), and southern NSW and northern Victoria with major flooding of inland rivers.  Oddly, Queensland’s Central Coast, Central Highlands,  and Central and Southern Inland missed most of this rain, although between 24 – 28 February my gauge measured 455mm.  It looks like a drier year (than the last three!) coming up.  A tropical low dumped on the Sunshine Coast, and for a while was expected to develop into a cyclone, but it moved away and weakened.  However, the monsoon did not become more active, although plenty of rain fell north of Townsville.

Here are 3 weekly rainfall maps showing how this developed.

The monsoon has now retreated and conditions are hot and very humid north of Mackay.  Normal wet season storms and showers will continue, but to the south autumn has arrived with cooler, drier conditions.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation will next affect southern Queensland and NSW in the period 28 March – 11 April, although rain may not be as heavy.  The influence after this will move further south in early to mid-May, and after that bring normal winter rain to southern states, although some usually spills into Queensland.

I have changed my timings between weather enhancements to 30 to 45 days (from 35 to 49).

6 Responses to “Global Temperature Page and Eastern Australia Rain Predictions- March”

  1. Tom Harley Says:

    Reblogged this on pindanpost.

  2. Siliggy Says:

    “A renewed La Nina will lead to mean temperatures dropping below 0.0.”
    It is possible!
    Norwegeian Climate Scientist Tore Furevik Says Cooling “La Niña Will Not Be Going Away”
    http://notrickszone.com/2012/03/02/norwegeian-scientist-tore-furevik-says-cooling-la-nina-will-not-be-going-away/
    Since then this has been updated and two of these temps got colder again.
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst.for
    Lance

    • kenskingdom Says:

      Gday Lance
      Interesting. Whatever happens in the short term, the long term trend is for plateau/ steady decline over the next decade. See my previous posts (especially January).
      Ken

      • Siliggy Says:

        Another week goes by and 3 of those 4 indices show cooling. A big jump down! The one that remained the same cooled last time.

  3. Siliggy Says:

    Ooh they all went up!

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