This page will be reposted around the middle of May, as soon as SOI and UAH data for the previous month are available.
The March UAH value is +0.11, making the running 12 month mean +0.15 +/- 0.1. March SOI was 2.9 but the recent 30 day average has been dropping quickly. The next few weeks will indicate what the next ENSO event will be- El Nino (likely) or La Nina (would be very interesting!) The monthly SOI has been positive for 24 months- it was last in negative territory in March 2010.
My predictions:
|
Month |
Actual UAH 12 month mean |
Predictions |
|
December 2011 |
+0.15 |
+0.12 |
|
January 2012 |
+0.15 |
+0.12 |
|
February 2012 |
+0.14 |
+0.13 |
|
March 2012 |
+0.15 |
+0.13 |
|
April 2012 |
|
+0.13 |
|
May 2012 |
|
+0.12 |
|
June 2012 |
|
+0.12 |
|
July 2012 |
|
+0.13 |
|
August 2012 |
|
+0.15 |
|
September 2012 |
|
+0.15 |
If we enter a new El Nino phase we can expect global 12 month mean temperatures to rise steadily in the last part of 2012 and more rapidly in 2013. If we remain in a neutral phase, 12 month mean temperatures should stay in the +0.1 to +0.2 range for the next 18 months. A renewed La Nina will lead to temperatures dropping below +0.1, possibly to below 0.0 if La Nina is strong enough.
Last month I tipped “The Madden-Julian Oscillation will next affect southern Queensland and NSW in the period 28 March – 11 April, although rain may not be as heavy. The influence after this will move further south in early to mid-May, and after that bring normal winter rain to southern states, although some usually spills into Queensland.”
Well, the upper level low started about 14 April and brought rain to SE Queensland and is now dumping on NSW, so it was a bit later than expected. There was also a Coral Sea trough which developed and moved west at the same time bringing further rain north of Cardwell. However I completely missed the redevelopment of the monsoon which brought very heavy rain to north Queensland in mid-March. Here are weekly rainfall maps showing how this developed.
Darn! Missed it!
It appears the monsoon cycles and upper trough cycles are different, but sometimes coinciding as in early 2011.
The next weather enhancement for SE Queensland and NSW will be in about five to seven weeks- late May to early June.
The monsoon has now retreated but still appears to be lingering in the Torres Strait. The ants are still climbing high and building entrance chimneys, so if they know anything there’s more rain to come!
kenskingdom 