Global Temperature Predictions- May

This page will be reposted around the middle of June, as soon as SOI and UAH data for the previous month are available.

The April UAH value is +0.29,  making the running 12 month mean +0.17 +/- 0.1.  April SOI was -7.1 which is neutral ENSO, but dropping.  The next few weeks will be interesting.  My predictions:


Actual UAH 12 month mean


December 2011



January 2012



February 2012



March 2012



April 2012



May 2012


June 2012


July 2012


August 2012


September 2012


October 2012


We’ll see how we go with this calculation!

If we enter a new El Nino phase we can expect global 12 month mean temperatures to rise steadily in the last part of 2012 and more rapidly in 2013, peaking about mid-year.  If we remain in a neutral phase, 12 month mean temperatures should stay in the +0.1 to +0.2 range for the next 18 months.  A renewed La Nina will lead to temperatures dropping below +0.1, possibly to below 0.0 if La Nina is strong enough.

Last month I tipped “The next weather enhancement for SE Queensland and NSW  will be in about five to seven weeks- late May to early June.”  As the winter pattern is now established, that appears to hold, but there may be a mid to late June influence.

Here are weekly rainfall maps for the past few weeks.  I was plain wrong about the late April disturbance.

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