Archive for June, 2012

Acorn or A Con: Acorn’s Daily Adjustments

June 23, 2012

Ken Stewart, June 2012

Comments on Jo Nova’s site, especially from Richard of NZ, indicate a need for the public to see samples of the daily adjustments made by the authors of ACORN-SAT.  So here they are.  All are for minima.

Please note: In this post I am not claiming that Acorn only cools past temperatures and warms recent ones.  On the contrary, there are many examples of the opposite, e.g. Tennant Creek.  There is a predominance of early cooling.  However in this post I am looking at the actual adjustments.

First, Alice Springs.  Here is a table showing 1943, when there was overlap between the old Post Office observations and the new airfield built for the war effort.  Note that Acorn bears little resemblance to either of the raw data records.

Yr

Month

Day

Old

Air

Acorn

Diff old

Diff air

1943

9

1

1.1

2.6

0.6

-0.5

-2

1943

9

2

2.8

3.8

2.2

-0.6

-1.6

1943

9

3

5

7

3.7

-1.3

-3.3

1943

9

4

5.6

5.1

4.7

-0.9

-0.4

1943

9

5

4.4

3.8

3.1

-1.3

-0.7

1943

9

6

2.8

3.7

2.2

-0.6

-1.5

1943

9

7

2.2

5.7

1.3

-0.9

-4.4

1943

9

8

2.8

6

2.2

-0.6

-3.8

1943

9

9

8.9

12.6

7.4

-1.5

-5.2

1943

9

10

10.6

13.3

9.8

-0.8

-3.5

1943

9

11

11.7

11.3

10.3

-1.4

-1

1943

9

12

8.9

8.7

7.4

-1.5

-1.3

1943

9

13

8.9

14.9

7.4

-1.5

-7.5

1943

9

14

14.4

12.6

13.4

-1

0.8

1943

9

15

8.9

5.7

7.4

-1.5

1.7

1943

9

16

14.4

14.4

13.4

-1

-1

1943

9

17

11.7

7.9

10.3

-1.4

2.4

1943

9

18

9.4

7.8

8

-1.4

0.2

1943

9

19

9.4

12.1

8

-1.4

-4.1

1943

9

20

17.2

17.3

15.7

-1.5

-1.6

1943

9

21

18.3

21.4

13.8

-4.5

-7.6

1943

9

22

12.2

12.1

10.3

-1.9

-1.8

1943

9

23

8.9

7.4

7.4

-1.5

0

1943

9

24

12.2

9.1

10.3

-1.9

1.2

1943

9

25

13.9

9.7

13.5

-0.4

3.8

1943

9

26

8.3

13.4

7.2

-1.1

-6.2

1943

9

27

7.2

8.7

5.9

-1.3

-2.8

1943

9

28

7.8

10.9

6.5

-1.3

-4.4

1943

9

29

6.7

7.7

5.6

-1.1

-2.1

1943

9

30

7.2

3.6

5.9

-1.3

2.3

1943

10

1

9.4

3.8

     

1943

10

2

5

5.7

     

1943

10

3

6.1

7.8

     

1943

10

4

5

8.5

     

1943

10

5

5.6

9

     

1943

10

6

8.3

7.9

     

1943

10

7

9.4

10.8

     

1943

10

8

13.9

17.2

     

1943

10

9

14.4

16.9

     

1943

10

10

15

16.3

     

1943

10

11

15

21.6

     

1943

10

12

13.3

16.3

     

1943

10

13

11.7

18.7

     

1943

10

14

11.1

17.1

     

1943

10

15

12.8

16.7

     

1943

10

16

11.7

17.1

     

1943

10

17

11.7

18.9

     

1943

10

18

12.2

17.7

     

1943

10

19

15

20.3

     

1943

10

20

15.6

20.1

     

1943

10

21

14.4

20.7

     

1943

10

22

12.2

20.7

     

1943

10

23

11.7

16.7

     

1943

10

24

12.2

13.3

     

1943

10

25

12.2

15.5

     

1943

10

26

15

15.3

     

1943

10

27

15

15.2

     

1943

10

28

15

16.2

     

1943

10

29

7.8

10.2

     

1943

10

30

12.2

15.6

     

1943

10

31

12.2

18.8

     

1943

11

1

12.2

20.4

     

1943

11

2

17.2

19.4

18.5

1.3

-0.9

1943

11

3

12.2

12.2

13.4

1.2

1.2

1943

11

4

12.2

10.7

13.4

1.2

2.7

1943

11

5

11.7

10.4

11.8

0.1

1.4

1943

11

6

12.8

12.7

13.6

0.8

0.9

1943

11

7

11.1

9.5

9.8

-1.3

0.3

1943

11

8

11.1

10.4

9.8

-1.3

-0.6

1943

11

9

10.6

11.3

9.2

-1.4

-2.1

1943

11

10

11.1

14.8

9.8

-1.3

-5

1943

11

11

12.2

13.6

13.4

1.2

-0.2

1943

11

12

15.6

14.9

15.2

-0.4

0.3

1943

11

13

12.8

14.6

13.6

0.8

-1

1943

11

14

15

14.4

15.2

0.2

0.8

1943

11

15

18.9

20

19.1

0.2

-0.9

What happened to October?

Here’s April and May 1931, just before a site shift in 1932.  Note the average adjustment for these two months is -2.8 degrees, with two days adjusted down by 8 degrees, and not accidentally.

Yr

Month

Day

PO

Acorn

Diff air

365d av PO

Acorn

365d diff

1931

4

1

23.3

20.5

-2.8

13.5

12.0

-1.5

1931

4

2

19.2

15.3

-3.9

13.5

12.0

-1.5

1931

4

3

11.4

9.3

-2.1

13.5

12.0

-1.5

1931

4

4

8.3

5.9

-2.4

13.5

12.0

-1.5

1931

4

5

8.3

5.9

-2.4

13.5

12.0

-1.5

1931

4

6

8.3

5.9

-2.4

13.5

12.0

-1.5

1931

4

7

10.6

9.1

-1.5

13.5

12.0

-1.5

1931

4

8

10.3

8.3

-2

13.5

12.0

-1.5

1931

4

9

10.6

9.1

-1.5

13.5

12.0

-1.5

1931

4

10

7.2

5.3

-1.9

13.5

12.0

-1.5

1931

4

11

9.4

7.7

-1.7

13.4

12.0

-1.5

1931

4

12

17.5

14.8

-2.7

13.5

12.0

-1.5

1931

4

13

20.6

17.4

-3.2

13.5

12.0

-1.5

1931

4

14

18.3

14.5

-3.8

13.5

12.1

-1.5

1931

4

15

14.6

12.4

-2.2

13.5

12.1

-1.5

1931

4

16

13.3

10

-3.3

13.5

12.1

-1.5

1931

4

17

10.6

9.1

-1.5

13.5

12.1

-1.5

1931

4

18

8.9

6.5

-2.4

13.5

12.1

-1.5

1931

4

19

11.7

9.4

-2.3

13.5

12.1

-1.5

1931

4

20

13.3

10

-3.3

13.5

12.1

-1.5

1931

4

21

10.7

9.1

-1.6

13.5

12.0

-1.5

1931

4

22

7.8

5.6

-2.2

13.5

12.0

-1.4

1931

4

23

8.9

6.5

-2.4

13.4

12.0

-1.4

1931

4

24

8.1

5.9

-2.2

13.4

11.9

-1.4

1931

4

25

7.8

5.6

-2.2

13.4

11.9

-1.4

1931

4

26

8.9

6.5

-2.4

13.4

11.9

-1.4

1931

4

27

10

8.3

-1.7

13.4

11.9

-1.4

1931

4

28

18

14.4

-3.6

13.4

11.9

-1.4

1931

4

29

10.6

9.1

-1.5

13.4

11.9

-1.4

1931

4

30

10.6

9.1

-1.5

13.4

11.9

-1.4

1931

5

1

8.1

5.8

-2.3

13.3

11.9

-1.4

1931

5

2

8.5

6.1

-2.4

13.3

11.9

-1.4

1931

5

3

8.4

6.1

-2.3

13.3

11.9

-1.4

1931

5

4

10.6

8.5

-2.1

13.3

11.9

-1.4

1931

5

5

17.7

9.7

-8

13.3

11.9

-1.5

1931

5

6

18.3

10.3

-8

13.3

11.9

-1.5

1931

5

7

12.2

8.8

-3.4

13.3

11.9

-1.5

1931

5

8

11.4

8.8

-2.6

13.4

11.9

-1.5

1931

5

9

11.7

8.8

-2.9

13.4

11.9

-1.5

1931

5

10

16.1

11.3

-4.8

13.4

11.9

-1.5

1931

5

11

21.7

14.8

-6.9

13.4

11.9

-1.5

1931

5

12

23.3

16.4

-6.9

13.4

11.9

-1.5

1931

5

13

20.6

13.7

-6.9

13.5

12.0

-1.5

1931

5

14

10.2

8.1

-2.1

13.5

12.0

-1.5

1931

5

15

3.9

1.9

-2

13.5

12.0

-1.5

1931

5

16

8.8

6.6

-2.2

13.5

12.0

-1.5

1931

5

17

11.1

8.8

-2.3

13.5

12.0

-1.5

1931

5

18

9.4

6.7

-2.7

13.5

12.0

-1.5

1931

5

19

12.2

8.8

-3.4

13.6

12.0

-1.5

1931

5

20

9.4

6.7

-2.7

13.6

12.0

-1.5

1931

5

21

11.7

8.8

-2.9

13.6

12.1

-1.5

1931

5

22

14.4

11

-3.4

13.6

12.1

-1.5

1931

5

23

10.6

8.5

-2.1

13.6

12.1

-1.5

1931

5

24

10

7.4

-2.6

13.7

12.1

-1.5

1931

5

25

9.4

6.7

-2.7

13.7

12.1

-1.5

1931

5

26

7.8

5.8

-2

13.7

12.1

-1.6

1931

5

27

5.1

3.4

-1.7

13.7

12.1

-1.6

1931

5

28

5.3

3.5

-1.8

13.7

12.1

-1.6

1931

5

29

2.2

0.6

-1.6

13.7

12.1

-1.6

1931

5

30

2.8

1

-1.8

13.6

12.1

-1.6

1931

5

31

6.2

5.7

-0.5

13.6

12.1

-1.5

    Avg

11.4

8.6

-2.8

     

 

Now here is December 2004, when the adjustments end.  Note the 365 day running means show there is a 0.8 degree adjustment on average.  (Don’t be confused by the difference- numbers are rounded to one decimal place.)  Note the sudden change from a large adjustment to no adjustment on 1 January 2005.  Happy New Year Richard!  Your comments at Jo Nova are spot on!

Yr Month Day Air Acorn Diff air   365d av air Acorn 365d diff
2004 12 1 23.3 23.9 0.6   14.9 14.1 0.8
2004 12 2 11.5 12.7 1.2   14.9 14.1 0.8
2004 12 3 13 14.2 1.2   14.9 14.0 0.8
2004 12 4 20.4 20.9 0.5   14.9 14.0 0.8
2004 12 5 21.1 21.7 0.6   14.9 14.0 0.8
2004 12 6 20.6 21.1 0.5   14.9 14.1 0.8
2004 12 7 20.4 20.9 0.5   14.9 14.0 0.8
2004 12 8 15.3 16.1 0.8   14.8 14.0 0.8
2004 12 9 12.9 14.1 1.2   14.8 14.0 0.8
2004 12 10 16.5 17.5 1   14.8 14.0 0.8
2004 12 11 16.5 17.5 1   14.8 14.0 0.8
2004 12 12 17.8 18.9 1.1   14.8 14.0 0.8
2004 12 13 19.5 20.2 0.7   14.8 14.0 0.8
2004 12 14 26.1 26.8 0.7   14.8 14.0 0.8
2004 12 15 17.7 18.9 1.2   14.8 13.9 0.8
2004 12 16 21.9 22.6 0.7   14.8 13.9 0.8
2004 12 17 16.6 17.7 1.1   14.7 13.9 0.8
2004 12 18 18.8 19.8 1   14.7 13.9 0.8
2004 12 19 24.7 25.6 0.9   14.7 13.9 0.8
2004 12 20 20.9 21.4 0.5   14.7 13.9 0.8
2004 12 21 21.2 21.8 0.6   14.7 13.9 0.8
2004 12 22 22.9 23.6 0.7   14.7 13.9 0.8
2004 12 23 23 23.7 0.7   14.7 13.9 0.8
2004 12 24 20.7 21.1 0.4   14.7 13.9 0.8
2004 12 25 24.8 25.7 0.9   14.7 13.9 0.8
2004 12 26 19 20 1   14.7 13.9 0.8
2004 12 27 24.6 25.3 0.7   14.7 13.9 0.8
2004 12 28 24.2 24.9 0.7   14.7 13.9 0.8
2004 12 29 20.7 21.1 0.4   14.7 13.9 0.8
2004 12 30 12.7 13.9 1.2   14.7 13.8 0.8
2004 12 31 15.8 16.7 0.9        
2005 1 1 19.4 19.4 0        
2005 1 2 29.8 29.8 0        
2005 1 3 24.9 24.9 0        
2005 1 4 21.5 21.5 0        
2005 1 5 16 16 0        
2005 1 6 14.1 14.1 0        
2005 1 7 15 15 0        
2005 1 8 15.7 15.7 0        
2005 1 9 12.8 12.8 0        
2005 1 10 14.8 14.8 0        

 

Now Rutherglen.  First, winter 1913, when the largest cooling adjustments were made.

Year Month Day Rutherglen Acorn diff

1913

6

1

3.1

2.2

-0.9

1913

6

2

6.1

4.5

-1.6

1913

6

3

10.6

   

1913

6

4

4.7

3.5

-1.2

1913

6

5

-2.5

-3.7

-1.2

1913

6

6

-2.2

-3.3

-1.1

1913

6

7

-3.1

-4.9

-1.8

1913

6

8

-1.9

-3

-1.1

1913

6

9

-2.5

-3.7

-1.2

1913

6

10

-3.3

-5.5

-2.2

1913

6

11

-3.3

-5.5

-2.2

1913

6

12

-3.3

-5.5

-2.2

1913

6

13

-2.2

-3.3

-1.1

1913

6

14

-1.1

-2.1

-1

1913

6

15

1.1

0.1

-1

1913

6

16

0.3

-1

-1.3

1913

6

17

3.9

2.8

-1.1

1913

6

18

-2.8

-4.4

-1.6

1913

6

19

2.2

1.5

-0.7

1913

6

20

3.9

2.8

-1.1

1913

6

21

-1.4

-2.6

-1.2

1913

6

22

1.1

0.1

-1

1913

6

23

6.7

5.1

-1.6

1913

6

24

8.9

6.3

-2.6

1913

6

25

8.9

6.3

-2.6

1913

6

26

2.2

1.5

-0.7

1913

6

27

-1.9

-3

-1.1

1913

6

28

-2.2

-3.3

-1.1

1913

6

29

-1.1

-2.1

-1

1913

6

30

3.9

2.8

-1.1

1913

7

1

1.7

1.1

-0.6

1913

7

2

0.6

-0.3

-0.9

1913

7

3

-3.1

-5.4

-2.3

1913

7

4

-4.2

-6.7

-2.5

1913

7

5

4.4

3

-1.4

1913

7

6

4.4

3

-1.4

1913

7

7

1.9

1.2

-0.7

1913

7

8

2.2

1.4

-0.8

1913

7

9

-1.1

-2.7

-1.6

1913

7

10

-3.9

-6.4

-2.5

1913

7

11

-1.4

-3.1

-1.7

1913

7

12

2.2

1.4

-0.8

1913

7

13

3.6

2.5

-1.1

1913

7

14

1.9

1.2

-0.7

1913

7

15

5

3.5

-1.5

1913

7

16

7.2

5.3

-1.9

1913

7

17

4.7

3.2

-1.5

1913

7

18

6.9

5.1

-1.8

1913

7

19

6.9

5.1

-1.8

1913

7

20

3.9

2.7

-1.2

1913

7

21

3.9

2.7

-1.2

1913

7

22

-1.7

-3.3

-1.6

1913

7

23

-2.6

-4.5

-1.9

1913

7

24

-2.4

-4.4

-2

1913

7

25

-3.9

-6.4

-2.5

1913

7

26

-2.1

-3.9

-1.8

1913

7

27

1.5

0.9

-0.6

1913

7

28

3.3

2.2

-1.1

1913

7

29

3.4

2.4

-1

1913

7

30

7.3

5.5

-1.8

1913

7

31

8.3

6.7

-1.6

    AVERAGE

1.50

-0.07

-1.42

 

Now 1973, when the adjustments end.  Note the 365 day average shows an adjustment of -0.5, which ends suddenly on New Year’s Day again.

Year Month Day Rutherglen Acorn diff 365d av Acorn 365d diff

1973

11

1

10.5

9.9

-0.6

8.5

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

2

9.5

9.1

-0.4

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

3

6

5.6

-0.4

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

4

10

9.4

-0.6

8.5

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

5

10

9.4

-0.6

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

6

     

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

7

5.5

   

8.5

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

8

7

6.8

-0.2

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

9

12

11.9

-0.1

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

10

15.5

14.9

-0.6

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

11

7

6.8

-0.2

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

12

8.5

7.6

-0.9

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

13

6.5

6

-0.5

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

14

5

4.7

-0.3

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

15

6.5

6

-0.5

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

16

5

4.7

-0.3

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

17

7.5

7

-0.5

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

18

13

12.6

-0.4

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

19

12

11.9

-0.1

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

20

19.5

19

-0.5

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

21

5.5

5.2

-0.3

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

22

5

4.7

-0.3

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

23

6

5.6

-0.4

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

24

7.6

7.1

-0.5

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

25

8.5

7.6

-0.9

8.6

8.0

-0.5

1973

11

26

9.5

9.1

-0.4

8.6

8.0

-0.5

1973

11

27

13.5

13

-0.5

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

28

12.5

12.2

-0.3

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

29

10

9.4

-0.6

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

30

10

9.4

-0.6

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

12

1

10

9.4

-0.6

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

12

2

21

20.5

-0.5

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

12

3

10.5

9.7

-0.8

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

12

4

11

10.1

-0.9

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

12

5

6

5.4

-0.6

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

12

6

7

6.3

-0.7

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

12

7

11

10.1

-0.9

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

12

8

10

9.4

-0.6

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

12

9

10

9.4

-0.6

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

12

10

14

13.2

-0.8

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

12

11

19

18.3

-0.7

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

12

12

16.5

15.9

-0.6

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

12

13

16

15.4

-0.6

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

12

14

21

20.5

-0.5

8.7

8.1

-0.5

1973

12

15

18

16.9

-1.1

8.7

8.1

-0.5

1973

12

16

15

14.4

-0.6

8.7

8.1

-0.5

1973

12

17

8.5

8

-0.5

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

12

18

11

10.1

-0.9

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

12

19

9

8.5

-0.5

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

12

20

11.5

10.9

-0.6

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

12

21

17.5

16.8

-0.7

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

12

22

9

8.5

-0.5

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

12

23

5.4

4.8

-0.6

8.5

8.0

-0.5

1973

12

24

7

6.3

-0.7

8.5

8.0

-0.5

1973

12

25

13.8

13.1

-0.7

8.5

8.0

-0.5

1973

12

26

7.5

6.9

-0.6

8.5

8.0

-0.5

1973

12

27

10.5

9.7

-0.8

8.5

8.0

-0.5

1973

12

28

15.5

14.8

-0.7

8.5

8.0

-0.5

1973

12

29

14

13.2

-0.8

8.5

8.0

-0.5

1973

12

30

18

16.9

-1.1

8.5

8.0

-0.5

1973

12

31

10

9.4

-0.6

8.5

8.0

-0.5

1974

1

1

10

10

0

     

1974

1

2

10.5

10.5

0

     

1974

1

3

15

15

0

     

1974

1

4

20

20

0

     

1974

1

5

17.5

17.5

0

     

1974

1

6

12

12

0

     

1974

1

7

14.5

14.5

0

     

1974

1

8

12.3

12.3

0

     

1974

1

9

12.5

12.5

0

     

1974

1

10

18.3

18.3

0

     

1974

1

11

17.7

17.7

0

     
                 
    AVERAGE

10.81

10.33

-0.57

     

 

Finally, Brisbane Aero.  A commenter claimed the 1960s were very cold in Brisbane, and it is much warmer now.  Note what Acorn has done to the data. 

The raw data consists of the old Regional Office data, which appears affected by UHI, and the Old Airport (Eagle Farm), which is several kilometres closer to Moreton Bay.  The new Aero site is several kilometres closer to the Bay again.

 

Year

Mon

Day

RO

Air old

Acorn

diff

 

RO 365d

Old

Acorn

 

old diff

1964

6

1

13.6

13.5

13.7

0.2

 

15.7

15.6

14.7

 

-1.0

1964

6

2

9.4

9.3

7.3

-2

 

15.7

15.6

14.7

 

-1.0

1964

6

3

12.9

12.8

12.5

-0.3

 

15.7

15.6

14.7

 

-1.0

1964

6

4

13.4

13.6

13.7

0.1

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

6

5

10.9

11

9.7

-1.3

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

6

6

12.8

13.5

13.7

0.2

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

6

7

13.7

12.3

11.5

-0.8

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

6

8

14.1

14.3

14.7

0.4

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

6

9

11.7

12.1

11.1

-1

 

15.7

15.6

14.7

 

-1.0

1964

6

10

11.4

11.5

10.2

-1.3

 

15.7

15.6

14.7

 

-1.0

1964

6

11

9.6

7.9

5.1

-2.8

 

15.7

15.6

14.7

 

-1.0

1964

6

12

11.1

9.4

7.4

-2

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

6

13

13.4

12

11

-1

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

6

14

8.6

8.7

6.1

-2.6

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

6

15

8.8

9.6

7.9

-1.7

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

6

16

8.4

9.4

7.4

-2

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

6

17

8

8.8

6.4

-2.4

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

6

18

11.3

11.2

9.9

-1.3

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

6

19

13.9

13.9

14.1

0.2

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

6

20

13.1

11.6

10.5

-1.1

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

6

21

10.7

7.8

5

-2.8

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

6

22

9.9

8.3

5.3

-3

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

6

23

9.6

8.7

6.1

-2.6

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

6

24

11.6

8.9

6.7

-2.2

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

6

25

7.4

7.8

5

-2.8

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

6

26

9.7

9.8

8.2

-1.6

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

6

27

9.1

8.7

6.1

-2.6

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

6

28

5.5

6.2

3

-3.2

 

15.7

15.6

14.5

 

-1.0

1964

6

29

7.7

8.3

5.3

-3

 

15.7

15.5

14.5

 

-1.0

1964

6

30

11.8

11.7

10.5

-1.2

 

15.7

15.5

14.5

 

-1.0

1964

7

1

11.7

11.3

10.8

-0.5

 

15.7

15.5

14.5

 

-1.0

1964

7

2

13.9

13.3

14

0.7

 

15.7

15.6

14.5

 

-1.0

1964

7

3

15.6

15.7

16.2

0.5

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

7

4

10.8

10.4

9.2

-1.2

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

7

5

6.3

4.4

0.5

-3.9

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

7

6

5.5

6.2

2.5

-3.7

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

7

7

8.7

8.8

7.4

-1.4

 

15.7

15.6

14.5

 

-1.0

1964

7

8

6.3

7.3

4.9

-2.4

 

15.7

15.6

14.5

 

-1.0

1964

7

9

6.3

7.1

4.6

-2.5

 

15.7

15.6

14.5

 

-1.0

1964

7

10

8.8

8.9

7.4

-1.5

 

15.7

15.6

14.5

 

-1.0

1964

7

11

11.5

12.1

12.1

0

 

15.7

15.6

14.5

 

-1.0

1964

7

12

12.5

9.2

7.8

-1.4

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

7

13

16.7

15.1

15.6

0.5

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

7

14

17.4

14.4

14.9

0.5

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

7

15

11.3

10.9

10

-0.9

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

7

16

10.2

8.9

7.4

-1.5

 

15.8

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

7

17

11.7

11.7

11.5

-0.2

 

15.8

15.6

14.7

 

-1.0

1964

7

18

13.5

13.6

14.2

0.6

 

15.8

15.7

14.7

 

-1.0

1964

7

19

10.3

8.9

7.4

-1.5

 

15.8

15.7

14.7

 

-1.0

1964

7

20

12

12.2

12.2

0

 

15.8

15.7

14.7

 

-1.0

1964

7

21

8.9

6.5

2.7

-3.8

 

15.8

15.7

14.8

 

-1.0

1964

7

22

7.6

5.8

2.2

-3.6

 

15.8

15.7

14.7

 

-1.0

1964

7

23

6.7

5.6

1.9

-3.7

 

15.8

15.7

14.7

 

-1.0

1964

7

24

4.9

5.6

1.9

-3.7

 

15.8

15.7

14.7

 

-1.0

1964

7

25

6.4

6.8

3.2

-3.6

 

15.8

15.7

14.7

 

-1.0

1964

7

26

9.1

8.7

6.8

-1.9

 

15.8

15.7

14.7

 

-1.0

1964

7

27

8.4

8.7

6.8

-1.9

 

15.8

15.7

14.7

 

-1.0

1964

7

28

8.8

9.4

7.9

-1.5

 

15.8

15.7

14.7

 

-1.0

1964

7

29

10.2

10.5

9.6

-0.9

 

15.8

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

7

30

10.2

9.9

8.6

-1.3

 

15.8

15.7

14.7

 

-1.0

1964

7

31

9.7

10.4

9.2

-1.2

 

15.8

15.7

14.7

 

-1.0

1964

8

1

11.5

11.1

9.8

-1.3

 

15.8

15.7

14.7

 

-1.0

1964

8

2

7.3

6.7

3.3

-3.4

 

15.8

15.7

14.7

 

-1.0

1964

8

3

7.7

7.8

5.3

-2.5

 

15.8

15.7

14.7

 

-1.0

1964

8

4

10.8

7.7

5

-2.7

 

15.8

15.7

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

8

5

9.6

6.3

2.9

-3.4

 

15.8

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

8

6

12.6

11

9.6

-1.4

 

15.8

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

8

7

11.7

12.5

12.5

0

 

15.8

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

8

8

8.7

9.2

7.2

-2

 

15.8

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

8

9

8.7

8.2

5.5

-2.7

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

8

10

5.9

5.4

2

-3.4

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

8

11

10.2

9.5

8

-1.5

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

8

12

8.6

7.3

4

-3.3

 

15.7

15.6

14.5

 

-1.0

1964

8

13

2.7

3.3

-0.1

-3.4

 

15.7

15.6

14.5

 

-1.1

1964

8

14

8.1

9.4

8

-1.4

 

15.7

15.6

14.5

 

-1.1

1964

8

15

13.2

13.6

14

0.4

 

15.7

15.6

14.5

 

-1.1

1964

8

16

8.6

6.7

3.3

-3.4

 

15.7

15.6

14.5

 

-1.1

1964

8

17

9.8

8.3

5.7

-2.6

 

15.7

15.6

14.5

 

-1.1

1964

8

18

6.2

6.3

2.9

-3.4

 

15.7

15.5

14.5

 

-1.1

1964

8

19

7.6

7.8

5.3

-2.5

 

15.7

15.5

14.5

 

-1.1

1964

8

20

8.4

9.3

7.4

-1.9

 

15.6

15.5

14.4

 

-1.1

    Avg.

10.04

9.61

7.88

-1.73

           

 Note the -0.1 in August 1964!  The average cooling adjustment is -1.73 degrees Celsius.

The lowest temperature for the new Airport was -0.1 on 19/07/2007, the only time the raw temperature for Brisbane has been below zero.  Acorn has several below zero temperatures in the 1960s, and has the record low as -2.2 on 22/07/1951, an adjustment of -4 degrees. 

The Percentile Matching algorithm may, in theory, be an excellent method of homogenizing temperatures.  However its effect in practice is to garble our temperature record, to make a nonsense of it.  

We’re being conned.

Final Temperature Prediction- June

June 6, 2012

This page will be reposted around the middle of July, as soon as RAINFALL data for the previous month are available.

The May UAH value is +0.29,  making the running 12 month mean +0.18 +/- 0.1.  April SOI was -2.7 which is neutral ENSO.  The next few weeks will be interesting.  My predictions:

Month

Actual UAH 12 month mean

Predictions

December 2011

+0.15

+0.12

January 2012

+0.15

+0.12

February 2012

+0.14

+0.13

March 2012

+0.15

+0.13

April 2012

+0.17

+0.13

May 2012

+0.18

+0.12

June 2012

+0.12

July 2012

+0.13

August 2012

+0.15

September 2012

+0.15

October 2012

+0.16

November 2012

+0.16

If we enter a new El Nino phase we can expect global 12 month mean temperatures to rise steadily in the last part of 2012 and more rapidly in 2013, peaking about mid-year.  If we remain in a neutral phase, 12 month mean temperatures should stay in the +0.1 to +0.2 range for the next 18 months.  A renewed La Nina will lead to temperatures dropping below +0.1, possibly to below 0.0 if La Nina is strong enough.

However, after closely analysing rainfall and SOI data for a sample of Queensland sites (more on this in a later post), and reading an analysis by Willis Eschenbach, I have come to the conclusion that SOI is not a predictor of ENSO events, merely a symptom, like temperature and rainfall.  Therefore SOI is not likely to have much long term use in predicting temperature.  For this reason, this will be the final post concerning future temperatures, but I will be posting about rainfall in more detail.

Last month I tipped “The next weather enhancement for SE Queensland and NSW will be in about five to seven weeks- late May to early June.”  The weather co-operated, and the following maps show this, and as at 6 June there is heavy rain and wild weather in southern NSW and Victoria.

 

 

 

The next major weather enhancement is likely to be late June to early July.   We are likely to have a wetter than normal winter- at least the ants think so!  These ants regularly build higher chimneys on their entrances before wet weather.  Their chimneys have been rebuilt since the weekend rain.