Acorn or A Con: Acorn’s Daily Adjustments

Ken Stewart, June 2012

Comments on Jo Nova’s site, especially from Richard of NZ, indicate a need for the public to see samples of the daily adjustments made by the authors of ACORN-SAT.  So here they are.  All are for minima.

Please note: In this post I am not claiming that Acorn only cools past temperatures and warms recent ones.  On the contrary, there are many examples of the opposite, e.g. Tennant Creek.  There is a predominance of early cooling.  However in this post I am looking at the actual adjustments.

First, Alice Springs.  Here is a table showing 1943, when there was overlap between the old Post Office observations and the new airfield built for the war effort.  Note that Acorn bears little resemblance to either of the raw data records.

Yr	Month	Day	Old	Air	Acorn	Diff old	Diff air
1943	9	1	1.1	2.6	0.6	-0.5	-2
1943	9	2	2.8	3.8	2.2	-0.6	-1.6
1943	9	3	5	7	3.7	-1.3	-3.3
1943	9	4	5.6	5.1	4.7	-0.9	-0.4
1943	9	5	4.4	3.8	3.1	-1.3	-0.7
1943	9	6	2.8	3.7	2.2	-0.6	-1.5
1943	9	7	2.2	5.7	1.3	-0.9	-4.4
1943	9	8	2.8	6	2.2	-0.6	-3.8
1943	9	9	8.9	12.6	7.4	-1.5	-5.2
1943	9	10	10.6	13.3	9.8	-0.8	-3.5
1943	9	11	11.7	11.3	10.3	-1.4	-1
1943	9	12	8.9	8.7	7.4	-1.5	-1.3
1943	9	13	8.9	14.9	7.4	-1.5	-7.5
1943	9	14	14.4	12.6	13.4	-1	0.8
1943	9	15	8.9	5.7	7.4	-1.5	1.7
1943	9	16	14.4	14.4	13.4	-1	-1
1943	9	17	11.7	7.9	10.3	-1.4	2.4
1943	9	18	9.4	7.8	8	-1.4	0.2
1943	9	19	9.4	12.1	8	-1.4	-4.1
1943	9	20	17.2	17.3	15.7	-1.5	-1.6
1943	9	21	18.3	21.4	13.8	-4.5	-7.6
1943	9	22	12.2	12.1	10.3	-1.9	-1.8
1943	9	23	8.9	7.4	7.4	-1.5	0
1943	9	24	12.2	9.1	10.3	-1.9	1.2
1943	9	25	13.9	9.7	13.5	-0.4	3.8
1943	9	26	8.3	13.4	7.2	-1.1	-6.2
1943	9	27	7.2	8.7	5.9	-1.3	-2.8
1943	9	28	7.8	10.9	6.5	-1.3	-4.4
1943	9	29	6.7	7.7	5.6	-1.1	-2.1
1943	9	30	7.2	3.6	5.9	-1.3	2.3
1943	10	1	9.4	3.8
1943	10	2	5	5.7
1943	10	3	6.1	7.8
1943	10	4	5	8.5
1943	10	5	5.6	9
1943	10	6	8.3	7.9
1943	10	7	9.4	10.8
1943	10	8	13.9	17.2
1943	10	9	14.4	16.9
1943	10	10	15	16.3
1943	10	11	15	21.6
1943	10	12	13.3	16.3
1943	10	13	11.7	18.7
1943	10	14	11.1	17.1
1943	10	15	12.8	16.7
1943	10	16	11.7	17.1
1943	10	17	11.7	18.9
1943	10	18	12.2	17.7
1943	10	19	15	20.3
1943	10	20	15.6	20.1
1943	10	21	14.4	20.7
1943	10	22	12.2	20.7
1943	10	23	11.7	16.7
1943	10	24	12.2	13.3
1943	10	25	12.2	15.5
1943	10	26	15	15.3
1943	10	27	15	15.2
1943	10	28	15	16.2
1943	10	29	7.8	10.2
1943	10	30	12.2	15.6
1943	10	31	12.2	18.8
1943	11	1	12.2	20.4
1943	11	2	17.2	19.4	18.5	1.3	-0.9
1943	11	3	12.2	12.2	13.4	1.2	1.2
1943	11	4	12.2	10.7	13.4	1.2	2.7
1943	11	5	11.7	10.4	11.8	0.1	1.4
1943	11	6	12.8	12.7	13.6	0.8	0.9
1943	11	7	11.1	9.5	9.8	-1.3	0.3
1943	11	8	11.1	10.4	9.8	-1.3	-0.6
1943	11	9	10.6	11.3	9.2	-1.4	-2.1
1943	11	10	11.1	14.8	9.8	-1.3	-5
1943	11	11	12.2	13.6	13.4	1.2	-0.2
1943	11	12	15.6	14.9	15.2	-0.4	0.3
1943	11	13	12.8	14.6	13.6	0.8	-1
1943	11	14	15	14.4	15.2	0.2	0.8
1943	11	15	18.9	20	19.1	0.2	-0.9

What happened to October?

Here’s April and May 1931, just before a site shift in 1932.  Note the average adjustment for these two months is -2.8 degrees, with two days adjusted down by 8 degrees, and not accidentally.

Yr	Month	Day	PO	Acorn	Diff air	365d av PO	Acorn	365d diff
1931	4	1	23.3	20.5	-2.8	13.5	12.0	-1.5
1931	4	2	19.2	15.3	-3.9	13.5	12.0	-1.5
1931	4	3	11.4	9.3	-2.1	13.5	12.0	-1.5
1931	4	4	8.3	5.9	-2.4	13.5	12.0	-1.5
1931	4	5	8.3	5.9	-2.4	13.5	12.0	-1.5
1931	4	6	8.3	5.9	-2.4	13.5	12.0	-1.5
1931	4	7	10.6	9.1	-1.5	13.5	12.0	-1.5
1931	4	8	10.3	8.3	-2	13.5	12.0	-1.5
1931	4	9	10.6	9.1	-1.5	13.5	12.0	-1.5
1931	4	10	7.2	5.3	-1.9	13.5	12.0	-1.5
1931	4	11	9.4	7.7	-1.7	13.4	12.0	-1.5
1931	4	12	17.5	14.8	-2.7	13.5	12.0	-1.5
1931	4	13	20.6	17.4	-3.2	13.5	12.0	-1.5
1931	4	14	18.3	14.5	-3.8	13.5	12.1	-1.5
1931	4	15	14.6	12.4	-2.2	13.5	12.1	-1.5
1931	4	16	13.3	10	-3.3	13.5	12.1	-1.5
1931	4	17	10.6	9.1	-1.5	13.5	12.1	-1.5
1931	4	18	8.9	6.5	-2.4	13.5	12.1	-1.5
1931	4	19	11.7	9.4	-2.3	13.5	12.1	-1.5
1931	4	20	13.3	10	-3.3	13.5	12.1	-1.5
1931	4	21	10.7	9.1	-1.6	13.5	12.0	-1.5
1931	4	22	7.8	5.6	-2.2	13.5	12.0	-1.4
1931	4	23	8.9	6.5	-2.4	13.4	12.0	-1.4
1931	4	24	8.1	5.9	-2.2	13.4	11.9	-1.4
1931	4	25	7.8	5.6	-2.2	13.4	11.9	-1.4
1931	4	26	8.9	6.5	-2.4	13.4	11.9	-1.4
1931	4	27	10	8.3	-1.7	13.4	11.9	-1.4
1931	4	28	18	14.4	-3.6	13.4	11.9	-1.4
1931	4	29	10.6	9.1	-1.5	13.4	11.9	-1.4
1931	4	30	10.6	9.1	-1.5	13.4	11.9	-1.4
1931	5	1	8.1	5.8	-2.3	13.3	11.9	-1.4
1931	5	2	8.5	6.1	-2.4	13.3	11.9	-1.4
1931	5	3	8.4	6.1	-2.3	13.3	11.9	-1.4
1931	5	4	10.6	8.5	-2.1	13.3	11.9	-1.4
1931	5	5	17.7	9.7	-8	13.3	11.9	-1.5
1931	5	6	18.3	10.3	-8	13.3	11.9	-1.5
1931	5	7	12.2	8.8	-3.4	13.3	11.9	-1.5
1931	5	8	11.4	8.8	-2.6	13.4	11.9	-1.5
1931	5	9	11.7	8.8	-2.9	13.4	11.9	-1.5
1931	5	10	16.1	11.3	-4.8	13.4	11.9	-1.5
1931	5	11	21.7	14.8	-6.9	13.4	11.9	-1.5
1931	5	12	23.3	16.4	-6.9	13.4	11.9	-1.5
1931	5	13	20.6	13.7	-6.9	13.5	12.0	-1.5
1931	5	14	10.2	8.1	-2.1	13.5	12.0	-1.5
1931	5	15	3.9	1.9	-2	13.5	12.0	-1.5
1931	5	16	8.8	6.6	-2.2	13.5	12.0	-1.5
1931	5	17	11.1	8.8	-2.3	13.5	12.0	-1.5
1931	5	18	9.4	6.7	-2.7	13.5	12.0	-1.5
1931	5	19	12.2	8.8	-3.4	13.6	12.0	-1.5
1931	5	20	9.4	6.7	-2.7	13.6	12.0	-1.5
1931	5	21	11.7	8.8	-2.9	13.6	12.1	-1.5
1931	5	22	14.4	11	-3.4	13.6	12.1	-1.5
1931	5	23	10.6	8.5	-2.1	13.6	12.1	-1.5
1931	5	24	10	7.4	-2.6	13.7	12.1	-1.5
1931	5	25	9.4	6.7	-2.7	13.7	12.1	-1.5
1931	5	26	7.8	5.8	-2	13.7	12.1	-1.6
1931	5	27	5.1	3.4	-1.7	13.7	12.1	-1.6
1931	5	28	5.3	3.5	-1.8	13.7	12.1	-1.6
1931	5	29	2.2	0.6	-1.6	13.7	12.1	-1.6
1931	5	30	2.8	1	-1.8	13.6	12.1	-1.6
1931	5	31	6.2	5.7	-0.5	13.6	12.1	-1.5
		Avg	11.4	8.6	-2.8

 

Now here is December 2004, when the adjustments end.  Note the 365 day running means show there is a 0.8 degree adjustment on average.  (Don’t be confused by the difference- numbers are rounded to one decimal place.)  Note the sudden change from a large adjustment to no adjustment on 1 January 2005.  Happy New Year Richard!  Your comments at Jo Nova are spot on!

Yr	Month	Day	Air	Acorn	Diff air		365d av air	Acorn	365d diff
2004	12	1	23.3	23.9	0.6		14.9	14.1	0.8
2004	12	2	11.5	12.7	1.2		14.9	14.1	0.8
2004	12	3	13	14.2	1.2		14.9	14.0	0.8
2004	12	4	20.4	20.9	0.5		14.9	14.0	0.8
2004	12	5	21.1	21.7	0.6		14.9	14.0	0.8
2004	12	6	20.6	21.1	0.5		14.9	14.1	0.8
2004	12	7	20.4	20.9	0.5		14.9	14.0	0.8
2004	12	8	15.3	16.1	0.8		14.8	14.0	0.8
2004	12	9	12.9	14.1	1.2		14.8	14.0	0.8
2004	12	10	16.5	17.5	1		14.8	14.0	0.8
2004	12	11	16.5	17.5	1		14.8	14.0	0.8
2004	12	12	17.8	18.9	1.1		14.8	14.0	0.8
2004	12	13	19.5	20.2	0.7		14.8	14.0	0.8
2004	12	14	26.1	26.8	0.7		14.8	14.0	0.8
2004	12	15	17.7	18.9	1.2		14.8	13.9	0.8
2004	12	16	21.9	22.6	0.7		14.8	13.9	0.8
2004	12	17	16.6	17.7	1.1		14.7	13.9	0.8
2004	12	18	18.8	19.8	1		14.7	13.9	0.8
2004	12	19	24.7	25.6	0.9		14.7	13.9	0.8
2004	12	20	20.9	21.4	0.5		14.7	13.9	0.8
2004	12	21	21.2	21.8	0.6		14.7	13.9	0.8
2004	12	22	22.9	23.6	0.7		14.7	13.9	0.8
2004	12	23	23	23.7	0.7		14.7	13.9	0.8
2004	12	24	20.7	21.1	0.4		14.7	13.9	0.8
2004	12	25	24.8	25.7	0.9		14.7	13.9	0.8
2004	12	26	19	20	1		14.7	13.9	0.8
2004	12	27	24.6	25.3	0.7		14.7	13.9	0.8
2004	12	28	24.2	24.9	0.7		14.7	13.9	0.8
2004	12	29	20.7	21.1	0.4		14.7	13.9	0.8
2004	12	30	12.7	13.9	1.2		14.7	13.8	0.8
2004	12	31	15.8	16.7	0.9
2005	1	1	19.4	19.4	0
2005	1	2	29.8	29.8	0
2005	1	3	24.9	24.9	0
2005	1	4	21.5	21.5	0
2005	1	5	16	16	0
2005	1	6	14.1	14.1	0
2005	1	7	15	15	0
2005	1	8	15.7	15.7	0
2005	1	9	12.8	12.8	0
2005	1	10	14.8	14.8	0

 

Now Rutherglen.  First, winter 1913, when the largest cooling adjustments were made.

Year	Month	Day	Rutherglen	Acorn	diff
1913	6	1	3.1	2.2	-0.9
1913	6	2	6.1	4.5	-1.6
1913	6	3	10.6
1913	6	4	4.7	3.5	-1.2
1913	6	5	-2.5	-3.7	-1.2
1913	6	6	-2.2	-3.3	-1.1
1913	6	7	-3.1	-4.9	-1.8
1913	6	8	-1.9	-3	-1.1
1913	6	9	-2.5	-3.7	-1.2
1913	6	10	-3.3	-5.5	-2.2
1913	6	11	-3.3	-5.5	-2.2
1913	6	12	-3.3	-5.5	-2.2
1913	6	13	-2.2	-3.3	-1.1
1913	6	14	-1.1	-2.1	-1
1913	6	15	1.1	0.1	-1
1913	6	16	0.3	-1	-1.3
1913	6	17	3.9	2.8	-1.1
1913	6	18	-2.8	-4.4	-1.6
1913	6	19	2.2	1.5	-0.7
1913	6	20	3.9	2.8	-1.1
1913	6	21	-1.4	-2.6	-1.2
1913	6	22	1.1	0.1	-1
1913	6	23	6.7	5.1	-1.6
1913	6	24	8.9	6.3	-2.6
1913	6	25	8.9	6.3	-2.6
1913	6	26	2.2	1.5	-0.7
1913	6	27	-1.9	-3	-1.1
1913	6	28	-2.2	-3.3	-1.1
1913	6	29	-1.1	-2.1	-1
1913	6	30	3.9	2.8	-1.1
1913	7	1	1.7	1.1	-0.6
1913	7	2	0.6	-0.3	-0.9
1913	7	3	-3.1	-5.4	-2.3
1913	7	4	-4.2	-6.7	-2.5
1913	7	5	4.4	3	-1.4
1913	7	6	4.4	3	-1.4
1913	7	7	1.9	1.2	-0.7
1913	7	8	2.2	1.4	-0.8
1913	7	9	-1.1	-2.7	-1.6
1913	7	10	-3.9	-6.4	-2.5
1913	7	11	-1.4	-3.1	-1.7
1913	7	12	2.2	1.4	-0.8
1913	7	13	3.6	2.5	-1.1
1913	7	14	1.9	1.2	-0.7
1913	7	15	5	3.5	-1.5
1913	7	16	7.2	5.3	-1.9
1913	7	17	4.7	3.2	-1.5
1913	7	18	6.9	5.1	-1.8
1913	7	19	6.9	5.1	-1.8
1913	7	20	3.9	2.7	-1.2
1913	7	21	3.9	2.7	-1.2
1913	7	22	-1.7	-3.3	-1.6
1913	7	23	-2.6	-4.5	-1.9
1913	7	24	-2.4	-4.4	-2
1913	7	25	-3.9	-6.4	-2.5
1913	7	26	-2.1	-3.9	-1.8
1913	7	27	1.5	0.9	-0.6
1913	7	28	3.3	2.2	-1.1
1913	7	29	3.4	2.4	-1
1913	7	30	7.3	5.5	-1.8
1913	7	31	8.3	6.7	-1.6
		AVERAGE	1.50	-0.07	-1.42

 

Now 1973, when the adjustments end.  Note the 365 day average shows an adjustment of -0.5, which ends suddenly on New Year’s Day again.

Year	Month	Day	Rutherglen	Acorn	diff	365d av	Acorn	365d diff
1973	11	1	10.5	9.9	-0.6	8.5	8.1	-0.5
1973	11	2	9.5	9.1	-0.4	8.6	8.1	-0.5
1973	11	3	6	5.6	-0.4	8.6	8.1	-0.5
1973	11	4	10	9.4	-0.6	8.5	8.1	-0.5
1973	11	5	10	9.4	-0.6	8.6	8.1	-0.5
1973	11	6				8.6	8.1	-0.5
1973	11	7	5.5			8.5	8.1	-0.5
1973	11	8	7	6.8	-0.2	8.6	8.1	-0.5
1973	11	9	12	11.9	-0.1	8.6	8.1	-0.5
1973	11	10	15.5	14.9	-0.6	8.6	8.1	-0.5
1973	11	11	7	6.8	-0.2	8.6	8.1	-0.5
1973	11	12	8.5	7.6	-0.9	8.6	8.1	-0.5
1973	11	13	6.5	6	-0.5	8.6	8.1	-0.5
1973	11	14	5	4.7	-0.3	8.6	8.1	-0.5
1973	11	15	6.5	6	-0.5	8.6	8.1	-0.5
1973	11	16	5	4.7	-0.3	8.6	8.1	-0.5
1973	11	17	7.5	7	-0.5	8.6	8.1	-0.5
1973	11	18	13	12.6	-0.4	8.6	8.1	-0.5
1973	11	19	12	11.9	-0.1	8.6	8.1	-0.5
1973	11	20	19.5	19	-0.5	8.6	8.1	-0.5
1973	11	21	5.5	5.2	-0.3	8.6	8.1	-0.5
1973	11	22	5	4.7	-0.3	8.6	8.1	-0.5
1973	11	23	6	5.6	-0.4	8.6	8.1	-0.5
1973	11	24	7.6	7.1	-0.5	8.6	8.1	-0.5
1973	11	25	8.5	7.6	-0.9	8.6	8.0	-0.5
1973	11	26	9.5	9.1	-0.4	8.6	8.0	-0.5
1973	11	27	13.5	13	-0.5	8.6	8.1	-0.5
1973	11	28	12.5	12.2	-0.3	8.6	8.1	-0.5
1973	11	29	10	9.4	-0.6	8.6	8.1	-0.5
1973	11	30	10	9.4	-0.6	8.6	8.1	-0.5
1973	12	1	10	9.4	-0.6	8.6	8.1	-0.5
1973	12	2	21	20.5	-0.5	8.6	8.1	-0.5
1973	12	3	10.5	9.7	-0.8	8.6	8.1	-0.5
1973	12	4	11	10.1	-0.9	8.6	8.1	-0.5
1973	12	5	6	5.4	-0.6	8.6	8.1	-0.5
1973	12	6	7	6.3	-0.7	8.6	8.1	-0.5
1973	12	7	11	10.1	-0.9	8.6	8.1	-0.5
1973	12	8	10	9.4	-0.6	8.6	8.1	-0.5
1973	12	9	10	9.4	-0.6	8.6	8.1	-0.5
1973	12	10	14	13.2	-0.8	8.6	8.1	-0.5
1973	12	11	19	18.3	-0.7	8.6	8.1	-0.5
1973	12	12	16.5	15.9	-0.6	8.6	8.1	-0.5
1973	12	13	16	15.4	-0.6	8.6	8.1	-0.5
1973	12	14	21	20.5	-0.5	8.7	8.1	-0.5
1973	12	15	18	16.9	-1.1	8.7	8.1	-0.5
1973	12	16	15	14.4	-0.6	8.7	8.1	-0.5
1973	12	17	8.5	8	-0.5	8.6	8.1	-0.5
1973	12	18	11	10.1	-0.9	8.6	8.1	-0.5
1973	12	19	9	8.5	-0.5	8.6	8.1	-0.5
1973	12	20	11.5	10.9	-0.6	8.6	8.1	-0.5
1973	12	21	17.5	16.8	-0.7	8.6	8.1	-0.5
1973	12	22	9	8.5	-0.5	8.6	8.1	-0.5
1973	12	23	5.4	4.8	-0.6	8.5	8.0	-0.5
1973	12	24	7	6.3	-0.7	8.5	8.0	-0.5
1973	12	25	13.8	13.1	-0.7	8.5	8.0	-0.5
1973	12	26	7.5	6.9	-0.6	8.5	8.0	-0.5
1973	12	27	10.5	9.7	-0.8	8.5	8.0	-0.5
1973	12	28	15.5	14.8	-0.7	8.5	8.0	-0.5
1973	12	29	14	13.2	-0.8	8.5	8.0	-0.5
1973	12	30	18	16.9	-1.1	8.5	8.0	-0.5
1973	12	31	10	9.4	-0.6	8.5	8.0	-0.5
1974	1	1	10	10	0
1974	1	2	10.5	10.5	0
1974	1	3	15	15	0
1974	1	4	20	20	0
1974	1	5	17.5	17.5	0
1974	1	6	12	12	0
1974	1	7	14.5	14.5	0
1974	1	8	12.3	12.3	0
1974	1	9	12.5	12.5	0
1974	1	10	18.3	18.3	0
1974	1	11	17.7	17.7	0
		AVERAGE	10.81	10.33	-0.57

 

Finally, Brisbane Aero.  A commenter claimed the 1960s were very cold in Brisbane, and it is much warmer now.  Note what Acorn has done to the data. 

The raw data consists of the old Regional Office data, which appears affected by UHI, and the Old Airport (Eagle Farm), which is several kilometres closer to Moreton Bay.  The new Aero site is several kilometres closer to the Bay again.

 

Year	Mon	Day	RO	Air old	Acorn	diff		RO 365d	Old	Acorn		old diff
1964	6	1	13.6	13.5	13.7	0.2		15.7	15.6	14.7		-1.0
1964	6	2	9.4	9.3	7.3	-2		15.7	15.6	14.7		-1.0
1964	6	3	12.9	12.8	12.5	-0.3		15.7	15.6	14.7		-1.0
1964	6	4	13.4	13.6	13.7	0.1		15.7	15.6	14.6		-1.0
1964	6	5	10.9	11	9.7	-1.3		15.7	15.6	14.6		-1.0
1964	6	6	12.8	13.5	13.7	0.2		15.7	15.6	14.6		-1.0
1964	6	7	13.7	12.3	11.5	-0.8		15.7	15.6	14.6		-1.0
1964	6	8	14.1	14.3	14.7	0.4		15.7	15.6	14.6		-1.0
1964	6	9	11.7	12.1	11.1	-1		15.7	15.6	14.7		-1.0
1964	6	10	11.4	11.5	10.2	-1.3		15.7	15.6	14.7		-1.0
1964	6	11	9.6	7.9	5.1	-2.8		15.7	15.6	14.7		-1.0
1964	6	12	11.1	9.4	7.4	-2		15.7	15.6	14.6		-1.0
1964	6	13	13.4	12	11	-1		15.7	15.6	14.6		-1.0
1964	6	14	8.6	8.7	6.1	-2.6		15.7	15.6	14.6		-1.0
1964	6	15	8.8	9.6	7.9	-1.7		15.7	15.6	14.6		-1.0
1964	6	16	8.4	9.4	7.4	-2		15.7	15.6	14.6		-1.0
1964	6	17	8	8.8	6.4	-2.4		15.7	15.6	14.6		-1.0
1964	6	18	11.3	11.2	9.9	-1.3		15.7	15.6	14.6		-1.0
1964	6	19	13.9	13.9	14.1	0.2		15.7	15.6	14.6		-1.0
1964	6	20	13.1	11.6	10.5	-1.1		15.7	15.6	14.6		-1.0
1964	6	21	10.7	7.8	5	-2.8		15.7	15.6	14.6		-1.0
1964	6	22	9.9	8.3	5.3	-3		15.7	15.6	14.6		-1.0
1964	6	23	9.6	8.7	6.1	-2.6		15.7	15.6	14.6		-1.0
1964	6	24	11.6	8.9	6.7	-2.2		15.7	15.6	14.6		-1.0
1964	6	25	7.4	7.8	5	-2.8		15.7	15.6	14.6		-1.0
1964	6	26	9.7	9.8	8.2	-1.6		15.7	15.6	14.6		-1.0
1964	6	27	9.1	8.7	6.1	-2.6		15.7	15.6	14.6		-1.0
1964	6	28	5.5	6.2	3	-3.2		15.7	15.6	14.5		-1.0
1964	6	29	7.7	8.3	5.3	-3		15.7	15.5	14.5		-1.0
1964	6	30	11.8	11.7	10.5	-1.2		15.7	15.5	14.5		-1.0
1964	7	1	11.7	11.3	10.8	-0.5		15.7	15.5	14.5		-1.0
1964	7	2	13.9	13.3	14	0.7		15.7	15.6	14.5		-1.0
1964	7	3	15.6	15.7	16.2	0.5		15.7	15.6	14.6		-1.0
1964	7	4	10.8	10.4	9.2	-1.2		15.7	15.6	14.6		-1.0
1964	7	5	6.3	4.4	0.5	-3.9		15.7	15.6	14.6		-1.0
1964	7	6	5.5	6.2	2.5	-3.7		15.7	15.6	14.6		-1.0
1964	7	7	8.7	8.8	7.4	-1.4		15.7	15.6	14.5		-1.0
1964	7	8	6.3	7.3	4.9	-2.4		15.7	15.6	14.5		-1.0
1964	7	9	6.3	7.1	4.6	-2.5		15.7	15.6	14.5		-1.0
1964	7	10	8.8	8.9	7.4	-1.5		15.7	15.6	14.5		-1.0
1964	7	11	11.5	12.1	12.1	0		15.7	15.6	14.5		-1.0
1964	7	12	12.5	9.2	7.8	-1.4		15.7	15.6	14.6		-1.0
1964	7	13	16.7	15.1	15.6	0.5		15.7	15.6	14.6		-1.0
1964	7	14	17.4	14.4	14.9	0.5		15.7	15.6	14.6		-1.0
1964	7	15	11.3	10.9	10	-0.9		15.7	15.6	14.6		-1.0
1964	7	16	10.2	8.9	7.4	-1.5		15.8	15.6	14.6		-1.0
1964	7	17	11.7	11.7	11.5	-0.2		15.8	15.6	14.7		-1.0
1964	7	18	13.5	13.6	14.2	0.6		15.8	15.7	14.7		-1.0
1964	7	19	10.3	8.9	7.4	-1.5		15.8	15.7	14.7		-1.0
1964	7	20	12	12.2	12.2	0		15.8	15.7	14.7		-1.0
1964	7	21	8.9	6.5	2.7	-3.8		15.8	15.7	14.8		-1.0
1964	7	22	7.6	5.8	2.2	-3.6		15.8	15.7	14.7		-1.0
1964	7	23	6.7	5.6	1.9	-3.7		15.8	15.7	14.7		-1.0
1964	7	24	4.9	5.6	1.9	-3.7		15.8	15.7	14.7		-1.0
1964	7	25	6.4	6.8	3.2	-3.6		15.8	15.7	14.7		-1.0
1964	7	26	9.1	8.7	6.8	-1.9		15.8	15.7	14.7		-1.0
1964	7	27	8.4	8.7	6.8	-1.9		15.8	15.7	14.7		-1.0
1964	7	28	8.8	9.4	7.9	-1.5		15.8	15.7	14.7		-1.0
1964	7	29	10.2	10.5	9.6	-0.9		15.8	15.6	14.6		-1.0
1964	7	30	10.2	9.9	8.6	-1.3		15.8	15.7	14.7		-1.0
1964	7	31	9.7	10.4	9.2	-1.2		15.8	15.7	14.7		-1.0
1964	8	1	11.5	11.1	9.8	-1.3		15.8	15.7	14.7		-1.0
1964	8	2	7.3	6.7	3.3	-3.4		15.8	15.7	14.7		-1.0
1964	8	3	7.7	7.8	5.3	-2.5		15.8	15.7	14.7		-1.0
1964	8	4	10.8	7.7	5	-2.7		15.8	15.7	14.6		-1.0
1964	8	5	9.6	6.3	2.9	-3.4		15.8	15.6	14.6		-1.0
1964	8	6	12.6	11	9.6	-1.4		15.8	15.6	14.6		-1.0
1964	8	7	11.7	12.5	12.5	0		15.8	15.6	14.6		-1.0
1964	8	8	8.7	9.2	7.2	-2		15.8	15.6	14.6		-1.0
1964	8	9	8.7	8.2	5.5	-2.7		15.7	15.6	14.6		-1.0
1964	8	10	5.9	5.4	2	-3.4		15.7	15.6	14.6		-1.0
1964	8	11	10.2	9.5	8	-1.5		15.7	15.6	14.6		-1.0
1964	8	12	8.6	7.3	4	-3.3		15.7	15.6	14.5		-1.0
1964	8	13	2.7	3.3	-0.1	-3.4		15.7	15.6	14.5		-1.1
1964	8	14	8.1	9.4	8	-1.4		15.7	15.6	14.5		-1.1
1964	8	15	13.2	13.6	14	0.4		15.7	15.6	14.5		-1.1
1964	8	16	8.6	6.7	3.3	-3.4		15.7	15.6	14.5		-1.1
1964	8	17	9.8	8.3	5.7	-2.6		15.7	15.6	14.5		-1.1
1964	8	18	6.2	6.3	2.9	-3.4		15.7	15.5	14.5		-1.1
1964	8	19	7.6	7.8	5.3	-2.5		15.7	15.5	14.5		-1.1
1964	8	20	8.4	9.3	7.4	-1.9		15.6	15.5	14.4		-1.1
		Avg.	10.04	9.61	7.88	-1.73

 Note the -0.1 in August 1964!  The average cooling adjustment is -1.73 degrees Celsius.

The lowest temperature for the new Airport was -0.1 on 19/07/2007, the only time the raw temperature for Brisbane has been below zero.  Acorn has several below zero temperatures in the 1960s, and has the record low as -2.2 on 22/07/1951, an adjustment of -4 degrees. 

The Percentile Matching algorithm may, in theory, be an excellent method of homogenizing temperatures.  However its effect in practice is to garble our temperature record, to make a nonsense of it.  

We’re being conned.

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Final Temperature Prediction- June

This page will be reposted around the middle of July, as soon as RAINFALL data for the previous month are available.

The May UAH value is +0.29,  making the running 12 month mean +0.18 +/- 0.1.  April SOI was -2.7 which is neutral ENSO.  The next few weeks will be interesting.  My predictions:

Month	Actual UAH 12 month mean	Predictions
December 2011	+0.15	+0.12
January 2012	+0.15	+0.12
February 2012	+0.14	+0.13
March 2012	+0.15	+0.13
April 2012	+0.17	+0.13
May 2012	+0.18	+0.12
June 2012		+0.12
July 2012		+0.13
August 2012		+0.15
September 2012		+0.15
October 2012		+0.16
November 2012		+0.16

If we enter a new El Nino phase we can expect global 12 month mean temperatures to rise steadily in the last part of 2012 and more rapidly in 2013, peaking about mid-year.  If we remain in a neutral phase, 12 month mean temperatures should stay in the +0.1 to +0.2 range for the next 18 months.  A renewed La Nina will lead to temperatures dropping below +0.1, possibly to below 0.0 if La Nina is strong enough.

However, after closely analysing rainfall and SOI data for a sample of Queensland sites (more on this in a later post), and reading an analysis by Willis Eschenbach, I have come to the conclusion that SOI is not a predictor of ENSO events, merely a symptom, like temperature and rainfall.  Therefore SOI is not likely to have much long term use in predicting temperature.  For this reason, this will be the final post concerning future temperatures, but I will be posting about rainfall in more detail.

Last month I tipped “The next weather enhancement for SE Queensland and NSW will be in about five to seven weeks- late May to early June.”  The weather co-operated, and the following maps show this, and as at 6 June there is heavy rain and wild weather in southern NSW and Victoria.

 

 

 

The next major weather enhancement is likely to be late June to early July.   We are likely to have a wetter than normal winter- at least the ants think so!  These ants regularly build higher chimneys on their entrances before wet weather.  Their chimneys have been rebuilt since the weekend rain.