Archive for August, 2012

After two years, still dodging the issue

August 13, 2012

Followers of this blog will know that in 2010 I completed an analysis of the Bureau of Meteorology’s “High Quality” annual temperature record.  When comparing the raw data from the 100 non-urban sites with the adjusted data, I found a warming bias of about 40%.  The 34 urban sites showed even greater warming bias.

Since then I have been trying to get an explanation from the BOM for the reasons for the adjustments that have created this so called High Quality climate record (which is still used by the BOM and the CSIRO for their climate analyses and their advice to the Commonwealth and State governments about climate change.)

After several emails were ignored, I wrote letters, first to the Director of Meteorology and then to Minister Tony Burke.  I received a very unsatisfactory reply in February 2011, with the promise of further information including journal articles supporting the adjustments and any operational adjustments “later this year”.

In June 2011, they sent further information, supposedly explaining adjustments at 9 sites.  This provided no new information at all, and no journal articles.

In March 2012, I wrote again to the Director of Meteorology, with a copy to Minister Tony Burke, with a reminder of the undertaking to provide copies of the journal articles.

Having still received no reply, I wrote again in June 2012 requesting an immediate reply.  As I was about to post this letter, I received from the BOM a copy of a scientific paper on ACORN-SAT.  This was completely irrelevant, having nothing to do with the HQ series which was the subject of my many requests.  I added a further request to my letter:

Can you guarantee that the daily temperature minima and maxima as published at Climate Data Online is correctly digitised, and transcribed exactly from the original station records (apart from occasional typographical errors, and with the only change being conversion from Fahrenheit to Celsius), with no adjustments?

Since June I have been too busy with personal matters to give this any attention at all.  Imagine my surprise when last week I received this letter from Senator Don Farrell.

Senator the Hon Don Farrell

Parliamentary Secretary for Sustainability and Urban Water

02 Aug 2012

Mr Ken Stewart

XXXXXXXXXXX

Dear Mr Stewart

I refer to your letter of 20 March 2012 to the Minister for Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities, the Hon Tony Burke MP, concerning a request for journal papers relating to the Australian homogenised temperature record.  Your letter was forwarded to me as the matter you raised falls within my portfolio responsibilities.

I understand that the Bureau of Meteorology (the Bureau) has completed the initial stage of a planned re-analysis of the Australian homogenised temperature record.  This project, known as The Australian Climate Observations Reference Network- Surface Air Temperature (ACORN-SAT) has been underway since 2009, with the Bureau recently publishing a package of data and other material on its public website.

Through the website the Bureau provides details and material relating to peer review of the ACORN-SAT project.  I am advised that the review panel were satisfied overall with the methodologies used in the generation of the ACORN-SAT dataset.  I am also advised that the Bureau has provided you with a copy of a recently published peer reviewed scientific paper on ACORN-SAT.

The Bureau of Meteorology intends to publish a series of papers on ACORN-SAT in the international peer reviewed literature.  Some of this work has already been published as part of the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR) Technical Report Series.  This series is subject to the normal peer review process within CAWCR.  Some of this material is already available from the Bureau’s ACORN-SAT website and should assist you with your enquiries.  The Bureau of Meteorology is also intending to release computer code used for the homogenisation of ACORN-SAT on the web by the end of August.  This was one of the recommendations from the independent peer review.

I would also like to take this opportunity to advise you that Dr Ayers resigned as Director of the Bureau of Meteorology on 20 February 2012 due to ill health.  Thank you for writing on this matter.

Yours sincerely

Senator Don Farrell

 

Some comments:

  • That’s four and a half months it has taken for a reply to my 20 March letter.  I could have walked to Melbourne and back in that time.
  • After 21 months, I have still not received a substantive reply to my original request for an explanation for the temperature adjustments.
  • Call me naive, but I thought Commonwealth public servants would have similar timelines for Ministerials to their State counterparts.  When I was a principal with Education Queensland, the expected timeline for providing information needed for a Ministerial response was same-day: in other words, drop everything else.
  • The BOM is still dodging the issue.  I am well aware of ACORN-SAT, having pointed out many shortcomings in a number of the Acorn records.  Scientific papers and data referring to the ACORN-SAT daily dataset, while interesting, are irrelevant to my request for information about adjustments in the High Quality Annual dataset, which is still being used for climate analyses.
  • When I want information about ACORN-SAT, I will ask for it.  Until then, I am still waiting for a satisfactory explanation for the adjustments in the HQ record.
  • The length of time taken, and the lack of substantive explanation, lead me to conclude that the climate specialists in the Bureau of Meteorology are being deliberately obstructive, and are doing their best not to reply to questions that imply that their adjustments to the temperature record are manual, subjective, biased, and riddled with errors.

The Australian temperature record is a crock.

Rainfall Predictions- 1 August 2012

August 1, 2012

This page will be reposted towards the end of August, as soon as I have enough RAINFALL and minimum temperature data.

I delayed posting until the July rain event ceased, and since then I’ve been busy moving house so haven’t been able to give this much attention.  Also I’ve had some internet connection problems!

Last month I tipped “The next major weather enhancement is likely to be late June to early July.”

This is how we went:

The July rain event eventually petered out about 16 July, so it lasted a week longer than I expected, and was much heavier than anyone thought.

After further analysis, instead of just a month or so ahead I’m going to have a go at longer terms, starting with this:

For southern and central Queensland (Mackay to Longreach and south to the border), the next enhancements will be early to mid-August (which may last a week or two), another late September to mid-October, and maybe late October to early November.  Indications are that there will be heavier rain events starting in the period early to mid-November and early to mid-December.   These events may affect NSW as well, but I am restricting my study at this stage to Queensland.

Specifically, I’m expecting there may be a small rain event around 5-8 August and another probably larger one in the period 15-25 August, (I’m tipping close to 18-20 August). 

I’ll try to improve my predictions for the spring rainfall events in future posts.

How’s that for going out on a limb?

I’m doing this to test (publicly) a hunch/ theory I have about rainfall patterns.  Since September last year when I commenced predicting rain events I have been wrong once (I missed the return of the monsoon in mid-March), and this latest rain lasted longer than I expected, but generally I’ve been pretty darn close.  Check back and see if you don’t believe me.

More later!