This page will be regularly updated, as soon as I have enough RAINFALL and minimum temperature data.
This series of posts is a continuing public testing and refining of my hunch that surges in minimum anomalies indicate later upper level disturbances. Since September last year my success rate is 80%.
On September 5 I tipped for September 18 +/- 7 days, “Possibly an upper level system- Possible storm activity; probably only light rain.”
Exactly right. I could have narrowed it down to +/- 2 days.
SOI 30 day mean is 3.5.
NINO 3.4 Index for August was + 0.73 and rising.
The Indian Ocean Dipole is currently +0.48 and falling.
We are looking at a weak El Nino, with a positive IOD, so conditions will be generally dry in spring before returning to normal summer conditions. Alternatively, we could be in for an early and heavier Wet, and a return to La Nina next year- I will discuss this possibility in a future post. I’m not so sure about January now: earlier I thought it would be hot and dry but I will have to wait until further into the season. Normal or above wet season rains are likely in early February.
For Central and Southern Queensland indications for the next 5 months are:
|Commencement period||Description||Likely result|
|September 28 +/- 3 days, linking to:-||Possibly an upper level system||Possible storms|
|October 3 +/- 7 days
October 18 +/- 3 days?
October 30 +/- 3 days
|Upper system likely to start
|Possible storm activity|
|November 13 +/- 10 days
Possibly November 26?
|Enhanced weather activity to begin in this period||Possible storms. This may last to early December.|
|December 4 +/- 4 days||Possible upper system||Possible storms|
|December 20 +/- 8 days (13-28 December)
December 26 +/- 2 days
|Indications of a stronger system
Possible extra influence
|Possible heavier storms or rain starting in this period, possibly lasting past Xmas.|
|January- possible 13 +/- 3 days? 22 +/- 2 days?
Late January- February (in the region 28 January-onwards)
Probable upper system enhancing wet season begins in this period
|Possible early storms?
Widespread rain, amount unknown (no-brainer- this is the wet season)
I will monitor conditions and refine my predictions as the season develops.
30 day mean Minimum percentage anomaly for the 10 Subtropical Queensland sites I monitor as at 20 September (almost the equinox) was -0.39.