Spring-Summer Rain Outlook Update November 6 2012

This page will be regularly updated, as soon as I have enough RAINFALL and MINIMUM TEMPERATURE data.

This series of posts is a continuing public testing and refining of my hunch that surges in minimum anomalies indicate later upper level disturbances.

Progress:

On October 5 I tipped for October 18 +/- 3 days a possible disturbance.  This was out by one week (although the October 11-14 rain could have been a continuation of the earlier disturbance, and on 1 August I had tipped “late September to mid-October”).  I also tipped on October 5, for October 28 +/- 3 days, “Possible disturbance- Possible storms” and this was exactly right.  There were widespread storms throughout the region.  Note I had also predicted a disturbance for late October- early November back on 1 August.

This is how we went: I remind readers again of my area of interest- subtropical Queensland.

And the plot of rainfall events since 1 July:

Outlook:

SOI 30 day mean (to 3 November) is + 4.48.

Weekly NINO 3.4 Index (to 28 October) was + 0.55 and rising.

The Indian Ocean Dipole is currently +0.29 and falling.

Here’s what I said for the remainder of the year back on 1 August:  “Indications are that there will be heavier rain events starting in the period early to mid-November and early to mid-December. These events may affect NSW as well, but I am restricting my study at this stage to Queensland”.

Rain events will become more frequent and more significant as the year progresses.  I’m tipping an early and heavier Wet, and a return to La Nina next year.  I’m not so sure about January now: earlier I thought it would be hot and dry but I will have to wait until further into the season.  Normal or above wet season rains are likely in early February.

For Central and Southern Queensland, indications for the next 5 months (with updates in BOLD) are:

Commencement period Description Likely result
November 7 +/- 3 days Possible disturbance Cloud and rain
13 +/- 10 days Enhanced weather activity to begin in this period Possible storms.  This may last   to early December.
20 +/- 3 days Possible disturbance
Possibly 26?
December4 +/- 4 days Possible upper system Possible storms
9 +/- 3 days Possible disturbance
20 +/- 8 days (13-28 December) Indications of a stronger system Probable heavier storms or rain starting in this period, possibly   lasting past Xmas.
26 +/- 2 days Possible extra influence
Januarypossible 13 +/- 3 days? Possible early storms?
22 +/- 2 days? “ “
Late January- February (in the region 28 January-onwards)  Probable upper system enhancing wet season begins in this period Widespread rain, amount unknown (no-brainer- this is the wet season)
30 +/- 7 days
February6 +/- 4 days  Probable upper systems enhancing wet season in this period Widespread rain, amount unknown (no-brainer- this is the wet season)   with several enhancements
13 +/- 3 days Likely surges
18 +/- 3 days “ “
26 +/- 4 days “ “
March6 March onwards Possible upper system
17 +/- 5 days “ “
27 +/- 5 days “”
April10 +/- 5 days  “” Last of the Wet season?  Possibly clearer weather after this.

I will monitor conditions and refine my predictions as the season develops.

30 day mean Minimum percentage anomaly for the 10 Subtropical Queensland sites I monitor (as at 4 November) was -0.099.  -0.1 is no change from 5 October.

6 Responses to “Spring-Summer Rain Outlook Update November 6 2012”

  1. Shane Battistuzzi Says:

    Good info Ken, keep it coming, I appreciate it!

    • kenskingdom Says:

      Gday Shane
      Thanks, maybe I’m just lucky but I think I’m on to something. Another update in the next couple of days, but watch for more rain in the period 14th to 27th (say 17-18th, 20th, and 24th all +/- 5 days).
      Whereabouts are you?
      ken

  2. cementafriend Says:

    Good work Ken, had 21.3 mm the last two days and still raining

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