This page will be regularly updated, as soon as I have enough RAINFALL and MINIMUM TEMPERATURE data.
This series of posts is a continuing public testing and refining of my hunch that surges in minimum anomalies indicate later upper level disturbances.
On October 5 I tipped for October 18 +/- 3 days a possible disturbance. This was out by one week (although the October 11-14 rain could have been a continuation of the earlier disturbance, and on 1 August I had tipped “late September to mid-October”). I also tipped on October 5, for October 28 +/- 3 days, “Possible disturbance- Possible storms” and this was exactly right. There were widespread storms throughout the region. Note I had also predicted a disturbance for late October- early November back on 1 August.
This is how we went: I remind readers again of my area of interest- subtropical Queensland.
And the plot of rainfall events since 1 July:
SOI 30 day mean (to 3 November) is + 4.48.
Weekly NINO 3.4 Index (to 28 October) was + 0.55 and rising.
The Indian Ocean Dipole is currently +0.29 and falling.
Here’s what I said for the remainder of the year back on 1 August: “Indications are that there will be heavier rain events starting in the period early to mid-November and early to mid-December. These events may affect NSW as well, but I am restricting my study at this stage to Queensland”.
Rain events will become more frequent and more significant as the year progresses. I’m tipping an early and heavier Wet, and a return to La Nina next year. I’m not so sure about January now: earlier I thought it would be hot and dry but I will have to wait until further into the season. Normal or above wet season rains are likely in early February.
For Central and Southern Queensland, indications for the next 5 months (with updates in BOLD) are:
|Commencement period||Description||Likely result|
|November 7 +/- 3 days||Possible disturbance||Cloud and rain|
|13 +/- 10 days||Enhanced weather activity to begin in this period||Possible storms. This may last to early December.|
|20 +/- 3 days||Possible disturbance|
|December4 +/- 4 days||Possible upper system||Possible storms|
|9 +/- 3 days||Possible disturbance|
|20 +/- 8 days (13-28 December)||Indications of a stronger system||Probable heavier storms or rain starting in this period, possibly lasting past Xmas.|
|26 +/- 2 days||Possible extra influence|
|Januarypossible 13 +/- 3 days?||Possible early storms?|
|22 +/- 2 days?||“ “|
|Late January- February (in the region 28 January-onwards)||Probable upper system enhancing wet season begins in this period||Widespread rain, amount unknown (no-brainer- this is the wet season)|
|30 +/- 7 days|
|February6 +/- 4 days||Probable upper systems enhancing wet season in this period||Widespread rain, amount unknown (no-brainer- this is the wet season) with several enhancements|
|13 +/- 3 days||Likely surges|
|18 +/- 3 days||“ “|
|26 +/- 4 days||“ “|
|March6 March onwards||Possible upper system|
|17 +/- 5 days||“ “|
|27 +/- 5 days||“”|
|April10 +/- 5 days||“”||Last of the Wet season? Possibly clearer weather after this.|
I will monitor conditions and refine my predictions as the season develops.
30 day mean Minimum percentage anomaly for the 10 Subtropical Queensland sites I monitor (as at 4 November) was -0.099. -0.1 is no change from 5 October.