Summer Rain Outlook Update November 12 2012 (Updated again 14 November)

Progress so far:

I remind readers again of my area of interest- subtropical Queensland.

Outlook for November and December:

The instability of the past few days will be repeated.  For the next 2 weeks I expect enhanced activity throughout Central and Southern Queensland and possibly beyond (circle these dates):

Mid to late November  with surges around 18, 22, and 25 (each +/- 5 days so very likely merging).

UPDATE and EARLY WARNING:   I expect a vigorous disturbance bringing heavy rain in early December (5th +/- 5 days), and another vigorous disturbance with heavy rain around December 20 +/- 5 days and probably extending past Christmas.  I expect more rain around the New Year.

It will be difficult to match individual events with predictions (as they are so close as to overlap, and sometimes enhancements bring cloud but little rain), but I can say mid to late November, early to mid December, and mid to late December will see several rain events.

I should mention that rainfall is measured at 9.00 a.m. on the day after it falls.

SOI 30 day mean (to 10 November) is + 1.53.

Weekly NINO 3.4 Index (to 4 November) was + 0.42.

The Indian Ocean Dipole is currently +0.03 and falling.

30 day mean Minimum percentage anomaly for the 10 Subtropical Queensland sites I monitor (as at 12 November) was -0.22.   (Correction-  4 November was -0.47).  It has been negative for all but 30 days of this year so far.

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