Throughout the past 18 months or so that I have been studying weather cycles, I have found this study to be a continuing learning experience, and one that I have enjoyed very much. This month is no different.
At the beginning of this month I repeated my predictions made back on 27 November, and extended out to the beginning of June. For the year so far, I predicted weather enhancements or changes for: January 3, possibly 8, 14, 18, possibly 21, 25, 30-31, all +/- 3 days.
Results so far:
Predicted dates to watch are in green. Notice the temperature (red) peaks on January 5 (within 2 days of 3rd) , and 14 (spot on). The rain peak on 16 relates to 14th, and 20th relates to 18th. But what happened to the 8th?
Definitely a learning experience. The black MSLP surprisingly comes 3 days before the Tmin peak but close to the predicted 3rd, however it matches 14th exactly and is 1 day off 18th. But compare the predicted 8th with the massive (inverted) low pressure on 9-10th. While perhaps I can be accused of moving the goal posts, and therefore I won’t claim the 8th as a success as it didn’t show in temperature change or rainfall, in future I will use MSLP as a useful third metric to identify weather change.
There was a weather disturbance here in Central Queensland this morning with cloud and showers, but I won’t claim it just yet. Nevertheless, all of 3rd, 14th, and 18th I predicted on 27 November I will claim as successful. That’s 3 out of 4 if I don’t use MSLP. I won’t be so hard on myself in future.
Updated predictions for Sub-Tropical Queensland for January to June:
An enhancement (pressure change, temperature change, and/or rain) between these dates:
January: 23-27, 28-31.
February: 28 January-3, (I’m tipping the wet season to start around this time), 4-8, 12-16, 18-22, 23-27, 28-5 March (possibly 2 surges).
March: 5-10, 11-14, 15-22 (2 surges?), 25-29, 30- 2 April.
April: 3-6, 6-10, 10-12, 12-14, 15-21 (2-3 surges?), 24-29, 30-3 May.
May: 3-5??, 7-10, 11-15, 17-21, 25-27, 25-2 June (possibly 2 surges)
June: May 28-2, 3-8 (2 surges?), 9-12, 13-15, 16-19, 20-24, 27-30+.
SOI 30 day mean (to 21 January) is +2.0 (neutral).
Weekly NINO 3.4 Index (to 13 January) was -0.27 (neutral).
The Indian Ocean Dipole is currently +0.37 (neutral).