Outlook for 2013 – Update 21 January

Throughout the past 18 months or so that I have been studying weather cycles, I have found this study to be a continuing learning experience, and one that I have enjoyed very much.  This month is no different.

At the beginning of this month I repeated my predictions made back on 27 November, and extended out to the beginning of June.  For the year so far, I predicted weather enhancements or changes for:  January 3, possibly 8, 14, 18, possibly 21, 25, 30-31, all +/- 3 days.

Results so far: 

Here’s the plot of  the 3 day Tmin anomaly index and 3day rain anomaly index. Jan 2013 actual T & rain

Predicted dates to watch are in green.  Notice the temperature (red) peaks on January 5 (within 2 days of 3rd) , and 14 (spot on).   The rain peak on 16 relates to 14th, and 20th relates to 18th.  But what happened to the 8th?

I decided to check with the mean of the 9.00 a.m. Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) at 8 of the 10 locations, and this is what it shows (the MSLP is inverted and scaled for comparison):Jan 2013 actual with mslp

Definitely a learning experience.  The black MSLP surprisingly comes 3 days before the Tmin peak but close to the predicted 3rd, however it matches 14th exactly and is 1 day off 18th.  But compare the predicted 8th with the massive (inverted) low pressure on 9-10th.  While perhaps I can be accused of moving the goal posts, and therefore I won’t claim the 8th as a success as it didn’t show in temperature change or rainfall, in future I will use MSLP as a useful third metric to identify weather change.

There was a weather disturbance here in Central Queensland this morning with cloud and showers, but I won’t claim it just yet.  Nevertheless, all of 3rd, 14th, and 18th I predicted on 27 November I will claim as successful.  That’s 3 out of 4 if I don’t use MSLP.  I won’t be so hard on myself in future.

Updated predictions for Sub-Tropical Queensland for January to June:

An enhancement (pressure change, temperature change, and/or rain) between these dates:

January:  23-27,  28-31.

February:  28 January-3, (I’m tipping the wet season to start around this time), 4-8, 12-16, 18-22, 23-27, 28-5 March (possibly 2 surges).

March:  5-10, 11-14, 15-22 (2 surges?), 25-29, 30- 2 April.

April:  3-6, 6-10, 10-12, 12-14, 15-21 (2-3 surges?), 24-29, 30-3 May.

May:  3-5??, 7-10, 11-15, 17-21, 25-27, 25-2 June (possibly 2 surges)

June: May 28-2, 3-8 (2 surges?), 9-12, 13-15, 16-19, 20-24, 27-30+.

SOI 30 day mean (to 21 January) is +2.0 (neutral).

Weekly NINO 3.4 Index (to 13 January) was -0.27 (neutral).

The Indian Ocean Dipole is currently +0.37 (neutral).

6 Responses to “Outlook for 2013 – Update 21 January”

  1. Shane Battistuzzi Says:

    Looking forward to the wet season!! Boy do we need some rain. Thanks for the update Ken.

  2. cementafriend Says:

    Ken, well done on timing. We had here rain on 5, 6,7 &8th, 15th &22nd compared with your prediction of 3,8,14,18, poss 21 +/- 5days
    I said that rain would be less than normal from historical data but I did not expect such low rainfall. Our total for Jan to 23rd is 29mm compared to the average for the month of 240mm I hope we get a downpour on your predictions of 25th and 30th. We could get 100mm in a day but the average looks a long way to achieve.

    • kenskingdom Says:

      Thanks!
      Heavy rain overnight here in CQ and moving south. 24th is pretty close to 25th predicted in November and 22+/- 2 days predicted in September. It’s been a long time between good drinks here. I’m learning as I go and I hope I’m getting better.
      Ken

      • cementafriend Says:

        Ken, 0.9mm in the gauge this morning (24th) and it is raining now so yes you got 25th right.
        It seems the wet season is late, as you say, and has stayed north (floods in Indonesia earlier in the month)
        The 2011 floods in SE Qld were due to an early rainy season (all time record rainfall here in Dec 2010 of 668mm) and more than double rainfall in Jan 2011 (566mm but no where near record of 1384 mm set in 1898).
        You will have to write a paper. Plos One (http://www.plosone.org/) would be a good peer reviewed journal. I would be happy to join you and contribute to cover the cost. If you look at the publishing criteria (such as ethics and integrity) most articles written by so-called “Climate Scientists” would not be acceptable.

  3. cementafriend Says:

    Ken, hope you are OK. The wet season has certainly arrived. Again, your timing is spot on. My thoughts of less than normal rain has been dashed or splashed. This morning there was 216mm in the gauge and still raining heavily.(got 1.5mm in a smaller gauge while emptying the first) Now upto 367mm for the month. Dry early with heavy late in the last week is rare but has occurred-1896 is an example. Hope we then do not repeat in a couple of years 1898 when there was 666mm in a single day.(9th Jan) followed by 288mm the next day.

    • Ken Stewart Says:

      Yes thanks, we’re all fine here, our neighbours had a friend staying with them who had a metre of water through her house just from the water coming off the street. Enormous rainfalls- 743mm in Bloxsome Street. Lots of areas are still cut off, and huge floods in the Callide valley and Boyne River. Next in line will be Burnett , Mary, and Brisbane catchments.
      Yes, exactly on time, and my calculations show another spike sometime between tomorrow and next Sunday (aroundWednesday or Thursday give or take a day or two.which I expect to involve North Qld as well (at least Central Coast district).

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