Ken Stewart, 17 March 2012
We’ve all heard about the Climate Commission’s report, “The Angry Summer”.
Tom Quirk has been able to obtain UAH lower atmospheric data for Australia, and has put together a comparison of BOM and UAH data for Australia and his conclusions are correct- there has been no significant warming since 2002.
I have used Tom’s work to compare the ACORN annual data with that of UAH. I have to thank Tom- without his initiative I would not have been able to obtain UAH lower atmospheric data for Australia.
To compare Acorn with UAH I calculated approximate Acorn anomalies from a 1981-2010 climatology (the same as UAH), instead of BOM’s 1961-1990 climatology.
The reasonably close match is remarkable, and confirms Tom’s finding.
This is in spite of all of our reservations about Acorn’s shortcomings, so it’s still good for something!
We may conclude that if BOM sticks to its 112 Acorn stations and maintains them, and if BOM manages to reduce the uncertainty in their data to +/-0.2C, then we can generally rely on their annual data into the future. Note to believers in man-made global warming: do not read too much into this: it is “near enough for a sheep station”, but not near enough for predictions of doom.
That bears repeating: BOM’s Acorn annual data matches UAH satellite data reasonably well.
Let’s look at the Angry Summer- in fact all summers in the satellite era.
Once again I re-calculated approximate Acorn summer anomalies from the 1981-2010 mean, as UAH does. Figure 3 shows the Acorn data for summers compared with UAH:
According to BOM last summer was a record, yet the satellites say it was pretty ordinary- 14th warmest out of the last 35. The last time there was such a large discrepancy was 1983- the two series since then have been reasonably similar.
Again I ask: what’s going on?