June Forecast Update

A quick update:

Two weeks ago my predictions were-

Unsettled with several successive events for the next several weeks:

May

17-18-19-20, 21-22-23, 24-25-26-27-28-29-30-31-1-2 JunePred res june 2

There were weather events on 16-17 May, 22-23, 29-30, and a big change with very little rain on 1-2 June.  25-26 was wrong,(though there was a wobble in the Maxima).  That’s 36 out of 38 correct this year- 2 wrong and 2 missed events.

Forecasting for such a large area as sub-tropical Queensland has too many problems for my liking, so I will provide a final summary at the end of June, as I am now concentrating on an improved method of forecasts for specific locations.  For example, my forecast for the Capricornia district of Central Queensland (specifically Rockhampton) for the next 160 days:

Higher humidity, more cloud, and increased likelihood of rain, followed by a cooler, drier change, on the following dates:

June:

5, 9-10-11, 15-16-17, 21-22, 25-26.

July:

4, 6-7, 10-11, 13(?), 15, 19-20, 23-24, 26-27, 29.

August:

1(?), 4(?), 6, 9, 11, 16-17, 23-24, 26-27, 29-30(?).

September:

2-3, 5, 8-9,14, 18-19, 23-24-25, 27-28.

October:

1, 7-8, 11, 14, 18, 24, 27(?), 30.

November:

1, 3(?), 9(?).

The days with (?) are possibilities only, worth watching- might only be fog.  Unfortunately, I can’t say exactly when it will rain or how much, but those are the most likely days for Rockhampton.  A wet winter and spring is looking more and more likely.

4 Responses to “June Forecast Update”

  1. cementafriend Says:

    Hi Ken, I have said before that I am impressed with your accuraccy.
    I live a bit south of you but can confirm the outcome of your predictions. We had in May significant (over 3mm) rain on 3rd, 6-7-8 &9th, 12th (22.3mm), 17th, 23rd & 30th.

    • kenskingdom Says:

      Thanks! I know it works, still no idea how or why. I’m currently looking at difference between intra-day warming and cooling as an indicator of instability. There’s still an uncertainty of up to two days in the predictions but the observations appear to match the 160 day lag much more closely. The only trouble is archived data is not freely available and I’m going to have to choose very carefully what records I decide to pay for. (I’m currently using 3 hour observations from my own weather station. Imperfect as it is, it still identifies instability precisely.)

  2. cementafriend Says:

    Sorry Ken, had to go out and left the comment incomplete. I should have put that at the end of May there was significant rain on 29th, 30th and 31st (26.4mm). There was rain on 1st June and it has teemed down the last few days 25.1 mm in the gauge yesterday and 71.0mm this morning with more to come in the gauge tomorrow. (In the gauge on 6th June there was only 2.0mm so some instability).
    We have already exceeded the 120yr average for June of 108mm and the average of 1806mm for the year.
    Keep up the good work.
    Hope some commercial TV station picks up your forecast skills. I am sure a few dollars would help you improve your weather station.
    Good health to you and your family.

  3. Edith Says:

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