Archive for July, 2013

Weather Predictions to 30 June (and for June -September)

July 1, 2013

On 14 May my predictions for sub-tropical Queensland (St Lawrence to Longreach and south to the border) for June were:

Unsettled with several successive events for the next several weeks:

-31-1-2 June

June

5-6-7-8-9-10-11, 13-14-15-16-17, 20-21-22-23, 27-28-29-30

Results:

There were weather events on 1-2 June, 7-8 June, 10-14 June, 17-18 June, 21-22 June, and rain and cold in the south east especially for the past several days.  June 6 was a fail, but the others were pretty much on the money.  In the south east it has been very unsettled.

Here’s a graph of Rain, and 3 day averages of Tmin, Tmax, and Pressure, with predictions and results shown.results june 30

For the first 6 months of this year, results are:

42 out of 45 correct- 3 wrong and 2 missed events.  93.3% of predictions were correct, and 89.4% of events were predicted.  This system works, for the south east especially.  The alternative method I used for Capricornia works, but with less accuracy (+/- 2 days) but is still worth pursuing.

My predictions for the next 3 months are:

Continuing instability especially in south-east Queensland!  Weather events (not necessarily rain, but a wet winter and spring is likely) are expected on the days marked in bold, and in the range joined by hyphens:

July

2-3-4-5-6-7, 9-1011-12-13, 15-16-17, 19-20-21-22, (24-25-26?) –27-28-29-30

August

1-2-3-4-5-6-78-9, 11-1213-14, 15-16-17-18-19-20-21, 23-24-25, 27-28-29-3031

September

1-2-3-4-5-678-9, 12-1314-15, 18-19-20, 22-23-24-25-26-27-28

Those who doubt are welcome to make their own alternative predictions.

And incidentally, my method indicates weather events, probably storms, as far ahead as 6-7 December.

Advertisements