Archive for October, 2013

UAH for September

October 19, 2013

The UAH lower tropospheric temperature anomaly for Australia for September was +1.56C, up from +1.12C in August.  The 12 month running mean has now reached +0.72C, which as commenter barry noted is not statistically different from equal highest since 1979.  Nor is it a record- the 12 months to September is now the third hottest (after June and May 2010).  Uncertainty for UAH is +/- 0.1C.  We may yet see a record.

uah 12m sept13

 

2010 and 2013 marked.  Mean and +/- 2 standard deviations shown.

October- December Predictions

October 2, 2013

At the start of last month, I said:

“A vigorous change came through the Capricornia district today, and further events are expected on:  4, 7, 9-10, 13, 16-17-18, 23-24-25, and 30- October 2.”

Results in September have not been as successful.  Changes occurred on September 2, 10, 13-14, 17, 25, 27, and storms brought rain to some places in the last two days.

6 right, 3 wrong, and 1 miss (which in hindsight I should have seen.)

75% right, 25% wrong, and a miss- not good.

For the rest of the year, I am predicting weather events (storms, heat followed by cool changes, dry fronts moving through) at the following times:

October
Sep 30- 1-2, 8-9-10, 14-15-16, 20-21-22-23, 25?, 28-29-30-31-Nov 1 (possibly 2 events).
November
4; 6-7; 9-10; 13-14-15; 18-19-20-21; 27-28-29.
December
5-6-7; 8-9-10; 12-13-14; 17-18-19; 22-23-24; 26-27-28.

For January-March 2014:  If I get within a day or two of these I’ll be happy.

January:

5, 9?, 14, 20-26 unsettled.

February:

6, 10, 16?, 21-24, 27?.

March:

4-9 (unsettled).

Concerning how hot September was:

Yes, it was hot.  Many daily and monthly records were broken.

For the 10 sites I monitor, all but Rockhampton, Maryborough, and Amberley broke daily and monthly records.  Rockhampton equalled the monthly record but had no chance of breaking the 37.9 (corrected to 37.4) daily record mentioned in the 1953 Commonwealth Year Book, p.44.  (And Brisbane was not even close to 38.3 set in 1943.)  Inland was very hot.

The 365 day mean of maxima has been above average all year.