October- December Predictions

At the start of last month, I said:

“A vigorous change came through the Capricornia district today, and further events are expected on:  4, 7, 9-10, 13, 16-17-18, 23-24-25, and 30- October 2.”

Results in September have not been as successful.  Changes occurred on September 2, 10, 13-14, 17, 25, 27, and storms brought rain to some places in the last two days.

6 right, 3 wrong, and 1 miss (which in hindsight I should have seen.)

75% right, 25% wrong, and a miss- not good.

For the rest of the year, I am predicting weather events (storms, heat followed by cool changes, dry fronts moving through) at the following times:

October
Sep 30- 1-2, 8-9-10, 14-15-16, 20-21-22-23, 25?, 28-29-30-31-Nov 1 (possibly 2 events).
November
4; 6-7; 9-10; 13-14-15; 18-19-20-21; 27-28-29.
December
5-6-7; 8-9-10; 12-13-14; 17-18-19; 22-23-24; 26-27-28.

For January-March 2014:  If I get within a day or two of these I’ll be happy.

January:

5, 9?, 14, 20-26 unsettled.

February:

6, 10, 16?, 21-24, 27?.

March:

4-9 (unsettled).

Concerning how hot September was:

Yes, it was hot.  Many daily and monthly records were broken.

For the 10 sites I monitor, all but Rockhampton, Maryborough, and Amberley broke daily and monthly records.  Rockhampton equalled the monthly record but had no chance of breaking the 37.9 (corrected to 37.4) daily record mentioned in the 1953 Commonwealth Year Book, p.44.  (And Brisbane was not even close to 38.3 set in 1943.)  Inland was very hot.

The 365 day mean of maxima has been above average all year.

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One Response to “October- December Predictions”

  1. cementafriend Says:

    I still think your forecasts are good. We had 1mm on 3rd &4th 0.4mm on 10th. You picked the storm starting 16th -2.7mm 17th 39.3mm 18th 2.1mm and 19th 0.3mm .There was 1.8mm in the gauge on 28th and 1.5mm in the gauge on 2nd Oct.
    I suggest you are more successful than BOM with their high powered computer (but garbage in is still garbage out).
    Do not get discouraged.

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