Archive for November, 2013

Weather Predictions November – March

November 3, 2013

At the start of October, I made the following predictions:

Sep 30- 1-2, 8-9-10, 14-15-16, 20-21-22-23, 25?, 28-29-30-31-Nov 1 (possibly 2 events).

Changes were detected on:- 2-3, 8-9, 13-14, 17-18, 22-23- 24, 28- 29-30-31 (the”possibly 2 events” was true indeed with a series of storm fronts that persisted.)Oct 13 results & pred

Dark red is Tmin, pink is Tmax, black is inverted pressure, blue is rain, green is the 160 day lagged Tmin, yellow is 40 day lagged pressure.  I may try 40 day lagged temperature in future.   November and December predictions are shown as red ovals.  So there were 5 correct predictions, 1 wrong, and 1 miss (although the wrong event would have been a “correct” if it had been a day earlier).  Not bad for 160 days out, I console myself.  I also suspect there has been a slight acceleration of weather systems, so perhaps I should be looking at events around 158 days ahead instead of 160.  No matter for now but I will keep an eye on it.

Predictions for November and December (slightly adjusted from last month):

5 to 10 unstable; 13 to 21 unstable with several events; 26-27-28-29-30 unstable.
2 to 10 unstable; 12-13-14; 16-17-18-19; 22-23-24; 26 to 31 unstable.

 January to March:

Here is the graph I use for predicting weather changes, which shows 2nd derivative, or acceleration/deceleration, of minimum temperature.

jan-mar 2014 predictions

Think of a cool change moving through from the west.  A large temperature differential, or a fast moving change, both have the same effect.  When the green line goes below zero, the temperature has decelerated, and a change (or unsettled weather) occurs in the time period indicated.  Several rapid oscillations appear to relate to unsettled weather.  My only problem is I am averaging over a very wide region, and the time lag may be changing.

There is always something to learn.