In my last post I showed how a numerical near-balance of adjustments to the ‘raw’ minimum temperatures at 83 out of 104 Acorn sites resulted in a 66.6% increase in warming trend across the nation.
I now turn to the effect on state and regional temperatures, which is enormously varied.
Note the little “bulls eyes” in various places, indicating where the local trend at individual sites is out of sync with the wider trend. I’m sure you can identify Tibooburra in north western NSW, Richmond in northern inland Qld, Rutherglen in Victoria, Marree in northern SA, and Carnarvon on the WA coast.
The concentration of Acorn sites in the south east of Australia, and the concentration of warming adjustment there as well, is plainly obvious.
Now I shall show each quadrant in turn, showing the trend difference at each site.
In the next section I look at how the adjustments affect the mean minima in each state. First I’ll look at the Northern Territory, which is atypical and based on only three sites (Alice Springs, Victoria River Downs, and Rabbit Flat), the two last with less than 50 years of observations.
So far, every state has seen an increase in warming much less than the national mean of 66.6%, so much depends on the final two states.
That is pretty amazing, but the result for Victoria is even more astounding.
The implications for the trend map in Figure 1 are obvious. One hopes that those adjustments are well and truly justified!
In the next post I will discuss the remaining 21 sites which I am unable to compare directly, and later, the trend outliers.