How Much Warming Have School Leavers Seen?

Reports of the recent heatwave and record high temperatures in November (which coincided with the end of schooling for our Year 12 students), have been exciting the media here in Australia, and last week Professor Lesley Hughes of the Climate Council got herself overheated and joined in.

Professor Hughes, an ecologist, this year was awarded the Australian Government Eureka Prize for Promoting Understanding of Australian Science Research.

prof hughes

See  http://australianmuseum.net.au/media/2014-Eureka-Promoting

Last week, she claimed that “climate change was having a significant impact on Australia’s temperatures, with record-breaking weather becoming more frequent and more severe.”

“Nine of the 10 warmest springs have occurred in just the last 13 years,’’ Prof Hughes said. “Heatwaves are becoming hotter, lasting longer and occurring more often.

“This is resulting in year after year of recordbreaking temperatures, which increases the risk of bushfires, droughts and heatwave-related health issues.”

How much of this frightening climate change have the current school leavers experienced?

Here are some graphs of Australian monthly temperature anomalies, straight from the Bureau’s Climate Change website, for the entire period of their schooling- from January 2002 to November 2014 (Preschool to Year 12 in Queensland).

Minima:

aust min 2002-14

Yes, over the past 13 years minimum temperatures have increased at a rate of about +0.08 degrees C per decade, or +0.8 C per 100 years- but less than the post 1910 trend of +0.1 C per decade.

Maxima:

aust max 2002-14

Oops! Over the whole period of the school leavers’ education, maxima have decreased at -0.06 degrees per decade.

Means:

aust mean 2002-14

Throughout their school years our school leavers have experienced a warming trend of…. +0.01 C per decade.  Or about 15 thousandths of a degree over 13 years.  Even with the hottest November on record, that’s somewhat less than the trend of +0.9 C per decade since 1910.  I’d call that a slowdown.

Welcome to the real world, school leavers.  It’s not as frightening as Professor Hughes (or Barack Obama) would have you believe.

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7 Responses to “How Much Warming Have School Leavers Seen?”

  1. omanuel Says:

    Steven Goddard correctly identified the reason for global climate warming in “Spectacular Malfeasance from the World’s Greatest Climate Scientist,”

    http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/12/06/spectacular-malfeasance-from-the-worlds-greatest-climate-scientist/

    The first comment posted there explains why modern consensus science worked for 69 years – since the end of WWII – inside a DARK MATRIX OF DECEIT to hide reality.

  2. Anthony Says:

    Interesting post Ken which should be in the MSM; how is the DTR over the period?

  3. Ian George Says:

    Ken
    I noticed that NSW was supposed to have its hottest October for max temps this year at +4.03C anomaly. When I ran the numbers from the BoM’s NSW climate summary site I found that the average of the some 150 w/s was below +3.0C (only 22 stations broke the +4.0C mean). I mentioned this on WH’s blog and he did some extra calculations and came up with this.
    http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=3384
    Note the disparity between the the infilled map and the actual temp for each region. How are these means calculated (from infilling data or the actual temps from individual w/s)?

  4. Ken McMurtrie Says:

    Reblogged this on The GOLDEN RULE and commented:
    This is prompted by the BOM post on Facebook today which claims:
    “WATCH: 2014 was Australia’s third-warmest year on record with frequent heatwaves and warm spells. Rainfall was near average for Australia as a whole, but drier in much of the east and along the west coast.

    More information in our latest Annual Climate Statement: http://bom.is/acs
    So for readers who can think for themselves, hopefully including students, an interesting excercise for you to reach your own conclusions.
    After all, how less a scientific statement can you get from the official government sources than “climate change was having a significant impact on Australia’s temperatures,..”?

  5. DaveR Says:

    Ken,

    yesterday (Jan 6) the Australian ran the story 2014 was the third hottest year on record. This comes from the BOM supported by quotes from “Prof” Will Steffen (in the early print version).

    What BOM didnt say is that their definition of “records began” is 1910, neatly avoiding the high temperatures of the Federation Drought period of 1896-1902, and a series of much earlier temperature records.

    What BOM also didnt say is that they have been adjusting down temperatures for all of the early records, without detailed justification. Based on analysis of raw temperatures against the adjusted BOM Acorn series, Ken Stewart estimates the average 1910 temperature for Australia may have been lowered by 1.0-1.5 deg C.

    This reporting from BOM (supported by green scientists) is deliberately misleading and needs to be independently analysed so the public have an accurate view of the “science” underpinning so much public spending.

    Phrases such as “unprecedented heat waves” and “unseasonal warm spells” are all designed to mislead average Australian who do not understand what the BOM is up to.

    There is an urgent need for a complete overhaul of the corrupted BOM, and for the creation of a quality temperature series going back to when quality records really began in the mid 1800s.

    After all, the calibration of thermometers in those days is unlikely to be off by 1.0-2.0 deg, and the BOM adjustments are highly questionable to say the least. A less charitable interpretation is the records have been deliberately truncated and adjusted to produce an exaggerated warming trend over the 20th century.

    Similar adjustments have been made to raw temperatures in New Zealand (NIWA) and United Kingdom (Met Office) by government bodies that have been shown through the Climategate emails to be working together.

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