Limited Blogging for a While

Due to family reasons, I can’t give much attention to this blog for a while.

I’ll leave you with two graphs to contrast climate alarmism about heatwaves with reality.

Dr Sarah Perkins of the Climate Change Research Centre and Dr Karl Braganza were in the news this week claiming that

“we’re definitely seeing more heatwaves across Australia”

and

“the number of days that belong in a heatwave each season — has been increasing since the 1950s.”

and

“Brisbane has been getting heatwaves in spring”

Let’s look at Brisbane.  Dr Perkins, a heatwave expert,  defines a heatwave as “three days in a row of temperatures in the top 10 per cent”.  The top 10% of days are those with a temperature above 29.5 degrees Celsius.  Yep, 29.5 C is apparently an extremely hot day at Brisbane Airport!  This shows consecutive days above 29.5 C- the red line is the 3 day heatwave benchmark.  Note the linear trend.

spring consec 29.5 brisbane

This shows the highest temperatures reached in 3 day heatwaves:

spring temps 29.5 brisbane

Just two graphs refute all of the above claims about Brisbane:

definitely NOT more heatwaves

definitely NOT more hot days each season since the 1950s

and Brisbane has ALWAYS had heatwaves in spring, but not so many nowadays.

There has been a slight increase in the number of standalone days above 29.5 C (0.17 days in 66 years), but ‘heatwaves’ have been getting COOLER.

Enough said.

7 Responses to “Limited Blogging for a While”

  1. Ian G Says:

    People, unfortunately those in ‘positions of influence’, just say stuff and are believed.
    Someone posted that Melbourne has had a 50% increase in +40C days since 1998.
    When I ran the figures, there were 37 days over 40C since 1998 to the present.
    When I checked the corresponding period from 1898 to Feb, 1915, there were 38 days – i.e. no change in 100 years.
    I think they just start from 1970.

  2. Peter Carabot Says:

    G’day Ken, hope everybody is OK.
    Last night during the weather report on their ABC, Jenny, our intrepid Meteorologist, was commenting on Boulia being the hottest in Queensland, she also mentioned that yesterday was the hottest day in Boulia since 1886(?). Either BoM is running scared or all of a sudden they discovered records that were not correct 2 days ago but they can be quoted now…..
    They are a bit of joke…
    All the best Ken

  3. Ian G Says:

    Peter
    Boulia’s hottest temp for March was 46.7C on 2nd Mar, 1951.
    Hottest this month has been 44.9C (on the 2nd).
    Yesterday was between 43C and 44C (have to wait for confirmation). It was 43.2C at 3:00pm.
    Records go back to 1888.

  4. Phill Says:

    Hi Ken, good luck and hope all goes well.

    I’ve been pondering the issue of the missing heatwaves.
    The BOM/CSIRO are modelling and spruiking apocalyptic warming. A key element of this is longer, hotter heatwaves. Most modelling and analysis are showing that this is not happening. It doesn’t seem to matter which way you cut it, absolute hottest day, days in the top 10%, days above 35C etc. The story is the same in all of our capital cities but when you look at averages in the cities these have gone up substantially, so why not our heat waves as well? This is, after all, where the Urban and other heat island effects are the greatest. Here in Melbourne the average minimum has risen around 3C and the average maximums by at least 1.5. So the real question is why? I think the answer is that the super hot days in our cities are the result of advected air blowing in from the centre of Australia. When the north wind blows it doesn’t matter that the thermometers are beside multiple lanes of freeway or in traffic islands beside high rise buildings. On these days the temperature being measured is not the temperature of the local environment but the temperature of the inland and by and large is no hotter out there than it’s ever been.
    Peter,
    The same thing happened with Marble Bar a few months back. After a big build up suggesting that records were going to be broken the news item came out with “Hottest since 1902!”

  5. Ian G Says:

    Just an observation further to your point, Phill.
    The hottest day for Melbourne was 7th Feb, 2009 at 46.4C. It was also the day at the height of the Vic 2009 bushfire.
    On 8th Feb, 1851, the temp in Melbourne was reported to be 47.1C – also the day of the worst bush fires in Victoria. This temp was ‘adjusted’ downwards at a later date.
    The 2nd highest temp was on 13th Jan,1939 at 45.6C – also the day of the 1939 Vic bush fires.
    I believe the fires would have warmed the air quite considerably.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s


%d bloggers like this: