Denial 101- My “Assignment”

I have just completed the 6 week online course “Making Sense of Climate Science Denial”.  What joy! (that I’ve finished).  This was Climate Science Lite- at its most basic.  I don’t think we have to worry too much about the trolls trained up by this course.

I sent in my “assignment”  yesterday, and had to mark five other students’ responses.  My final mark- 87%!!  here it is:

 

  1. FACT: There is no evidence for any “hot spot” in the tropical upper troposphere, the hypothetical existence of which is one of the key signatures of man-made global warming.

    Satellites have been measuring temperatures of layers of the atmosphere since 1978. The most recent version of the UAH (University of Alabama- Huntsville) dataset shows the tropical upper troposphere has in fact a much smaller trend than climate models say it should be. The data show no amplified warming of the upper troposphere, and no hot spot.

    Further, since the 1950s thousands of weather balloons have been deployed in the atmosphere and have likewise failed to identify any hotspot.

    There is a myth, however, that claims that lack of evidence for the hot spot is not important, as the hot spot would be evidence for any natural warming, not just greenhouse warming.

    Those who advance this myth admit there is no sign of the tropical hot spot, but say that any sort of warming will produce one. This is true. They fail to explain, however, the reason for its absence, and fail to explain that as a consequence, global warming, natural or man-made, cannot be amplified by feedback from water vapour when there is no evidence for this in the most important location.

    This is because the hot spot is fundamental to global warming theory. As the Earth’s surface warms, much greater amounts of water can be evaporated. While much of this water vapour condenses to form clouds and returns to the surface as precipitation, with increased warming more water vapour condenses and releases heat higher up, in the upper troposphere. This effect is expected to be strongest in the tropics, and this is referred to as the tropical hot spot. (It is not really “hot”, but relatively warmer than the extremely cold upper atmosphere.)

    Being a strong greenhouse gas, this additional water vapour adds to the warming due to carbon dioxide (or any natural warming) in a positive feedback. This is the reason that finding the hot spot is important. If it is not there, in the most important atmospheric layer for feedback from water vapour, then there is little evidence for amplification of global warming beyond that expected from carbon dioxide and other man-made greenhouse gases.

    Unfortunately, even after decades of warming, neither weather balloons nor satellites can find any evidence for this hot spot.

    Saying that the missing hot spot is not important is an example of the fallacy of misrepresenting the science. To claim this, misrepresents the science which says that the tropical hot spot would be strong evidence for the expected amplified warming due to increased water vapour.

    The lack of the tropical hot spot is indeed a major problem for climate scientists. No hot spot, no excessive warming.

ASSESSMENTS OF YOUR RESPONSE

  1. STRUCTURE- OVERALL GRADE OUT OF 5 POINTS

    • ASSESSOR:PEER 1Peer’s Assessment:Good

      GRADE EARNED:4 POINTS

    • ASSESSOR:PEER 2Peer’s Assessment:Good

      GRADE EARNED:4 POINTS

    • ASSESSOR:PEER 3Peer’s Assessment:Excellent

      GRADE EARNED:5 POINTS

  2. STICKY SCIENCE- OVERALL GRADE OUT OF 5 POINTS

    • ASSESSOR:PEER 1Peer’s Assessment:Excellent

      GRADE EARNED:5 POINTS

    • ASSESSOR:PEER 2Peer’s Assessment:Good

      GRADE EARNED:4 POINTS

    • ASSESSOR:PEER 3Peer’s Assessment:Excellent

      GRADE EARNED:5 POINTS

  3. FLU SHOT- OVERALL GRADE OUT OF 5 POINTS

    • ASSESSOR:PEER 1Peer’s Assessment:Needs Improvement

      GRADE EARNED:3 POINTS

    • ASSESSOR:PEER 2Peer’s Assessment:Needs Improvement

      GRADE EARNED:3 POINTS

    • ASSESSOR:PEER 3Peer’s Assessment:Excellent

      GRADE EARNED:5 POINTS

  4. CONVINCING ARGUMENT OVERALL GRADE OUT OF 5 POINTS

    • ASSESSOR:PEER 1Peer’s Assessment:Needs Improvement

      GRADE EARNED:3 POINTS

    • ASSESSOR:PEER 2Peer’s Assessment:Needs Improvement

      GRADE EARNED:3 POINTS

    • ASSESSOR:PEER 3Peer’s Assessment:Excellent

      GRADE EARNED:5 POINTS

 

(I think Peer Assessor 3 might be a sceptic!!  I wonder how many more there were.)

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3 Responses to “Denial 101- My “Assignment””

  1. catweazle666 Says:

    PEER ASSESSOR:PEER 2

    Peer’s assessment:

    I was confused when I first read this. Had to do some research myself to better understand this one, having never heard of it before.

    Really?

    Weren’t the “ASSESSORS” climate scientists then?

    Where were they recruited, the local Job Centre?

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