Pause Update September 2015

UAH v6.0 data for August were released on Wednesday.  Here are updated graphs for various regions showing the furthest back one can go to show a zero or negative trend (less than +0.01C/ 100 years) in lower tropospheric temperatures.  The strongest El Nino since 1997-98 is affecting some regions more than others.

Globe:

global aug

Due to the strong El Nino, global temperatures are expected to continue to increase until May or June of 2016 (at least until February).  This will shorten the Pause.

Northern Hemisphere:

NH

Southern Hemisphere:

S hemis aug

Tropics (20N – 20S):

tropics aug

Tropical Oceans:

tropic oceans aug

The bulk of solar heating of the Earth occurs in the tropics, which is  mostly ocean, and ENSO events occur here.  Since October 1992, very much before the 1997-98 Super El Nino, there has been no warming at all.

North Polar:

N Pole aug

South Polar:

S Pole aug

Oops!  For the whole of the satellite record, there has been NO warming in the atmosphere above Antarctica.  Remember, one of the “fingerprints” of global warming due to the Enhanced Greenhouse Effect is greater warming towards the Poles.

USA 49 States:

USA aug

Australia:

aust aug

There has been no warming in the atmosphere above Australia for almost the whole lives of the current cohort of 1st Year Uni students. Just for comparison, the Australian ACORN-SAT surface data show a pause since February 2002- since they were in Preschool.

aust acorn

The Pause continues.

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5 Responses to “Pause Update September 2015”

  1. Neville Says:

    Ken the HAD 4 data shows about 0.8 C warming since 1850. Can you tell me why this is unusual/unprecedented when we also know that the LIA finished about 1850?

    http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1850/offset/trend

  2. Neville Says:

    Ken I’m very much an uneducated layman and that’s why I’d like to read your longer answer.
    You must have thought about this over many years. For example, what about the UHI effect, data tampering, cloud changes, some extra solar forcing, recovery from the LIA etc?
    As for unprecedented or unusual I’d just like to quote the study from former IPCC lead author Philip Lloyd. He found an average one degree deviation ( per century) over the last 80 centuries. But we’ve only had a slight 0.8 c warming since 1850. So why all the fuss?

    http://www.researchgate.net/publication/276276180_An_Estimate_of_The_Centennial_Variability_of_Global_Temperatures

  3. JJM Gommers Says:

    Is it possible for the Antarctic to calculate what the temperature increase would have been as result of the CO2 increase(340-400 ppmv). Assuming all other parameters remain the same.
    If it would be tiny it’s not interesting but in case of 0.1 or up 0.2 oC that would mean cooling is underway.

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