The complete UAH v6.0 data for March have been released. I present all the graphs for various regions, and as well summaries for easier comparison. The Pause refuses to go away, despite greatly exaggerated rumours of its death.
These graphs show the furthest back one can go to show a zero or negative trend (less than +0.1C/ 100 years) in lower tropospheric temperatures. I calculate 12 month running means to remove the small possibility of seasonal autocorrelation in the monthly anomalies. Note: The satellite record commences in December 1978- now 37 years and 4 months long- 448 months. 12 month running means commence in November 1979. The graphs below start in December 1978, so the vertical gridlines denote Decembers. The final plotted points are March 2016.
As I intimated in the previous post, there have been some small changes in the data. Some slope values have changed slightly.
[CLICK ON IMAGES TO ENLARGE]
Sorry, GWEs, The Pause, for more than half the record, is still an embarrassing reality! For how much longer we don’t know.
And, for the special benefit of those who think that I am deliberately fudging data by using 12 month running means, here is the plot of monthly anomalies, which shows that The Pause is over by my rather strict criterion:
I will continue posting these figures showing these scarey trends from monthly anomalies. The Pause will return sooner with monthly anomalies than 12 month means of course.
The Northern Hemisphere Pause refuses to go quietly and remains at more than half the record. It may well disappear in the next month or two.
For well over half the record the Southern Hemisphere has zero trend.
Northern Extra Tropics:
The Pause by this criterion has ended in this region, however note that the slope since 1998 is one tenth of the slope for the whole period.
Southern Extra Tropics:
The Pause here has shortened.
As the trend exceeds -0.1, this region is cooling for the entire record.
USA 49 States:
The next graphs summarise the above plots. First, a graph of the relative length of The Pause in the various regions:
Apart from the North Polar, whose Pause is shorter, and the Northern Extra Tropics, whose Pause has ended, all other regions have a Pause of 18 years or longer- including the South Polar region which has been cooling for the whole record,
The variation in the linear trend for the whole record, 1978 to the present:
Note the decrease in trends from North Polar to South Polar.
And the variation in the linear trend since June 1998, which is about halfway between the global low point of December 1997 and the peak in December 1998:
The only region to show strong warming for this period is the North Polar region: the Northern Extra Tropics has very mild warming: all other regions are Paused or cooling.
12 month means will continue to grow for the next few months, so the Pause may disappear shortly, and may not reappear until early 2018. The impact of the coming La Nina will be worth watching.