The Pause Update: April 2016

The complete UAH v6.0 data for April were released on Friday.  I could have presented this earlier, but there are some more important things in my life, like grandkids’ sleepovers and Mothers’ Day.  Back to business.  I present all the graphs for various regions, and as well summaries for easier comparison.  The Pause still refuses to go away, despite all expectations.

These graphs show the furthest back one can go to show a zero or negative trend (less than +0.1C/ 100 years) in lower tropospheric temperatures. I calculate 12 month running means to remove the small possibility of seasonal autocorrelation in the monthly anomalies. Note: The satellite record commences in December 1978- now 37 years and 5 months long- 448 months. 12 month running means commence in November 1979. The graphs below start in December 1978, so the vertical gridlines denote Decembers. The final plotted points are April 2016.



Apr 16 globe

The 12 month mean to April 2016 is +0.43C.  However, the Pause is still an embarrassing reality! For how much longer we don’t know.

And, for the special benefit of those who think that I am deliberately fudging data by using 12 month running means, here is the plot of monthly anomalies, which shows that The Pause is over by my rather strict criterion:

Apr 16 globe mthly

+0.22C/100 years since December 1997- not exactly alarming.  The Pause will return sooner with monthly anomalies than 12 month means of course.

Northern Hemisphere:

Apr 16 NH

The Northern Hemisphere Pause refuses to go quietly and remains at the same length. It may well disappear in the next month or two.

Southern Hemisphere:

Apr 16 SH

The pause has shortened by one month.  For well over half the record the Southern Hemisphere has zero trend.


Apr 16 Tropics

The Pause has shortened by 3 months.

Tropical Oceans:

Apr 16 Tropic Oceans

The Pause has shortened by 3 months.

Northern Extra Tropics:

Apr 16  NH ExtraTropics

The Pause by this criterion has ended in this region, however note that the slope since 1998 is +0.17 +/- 0.1C per 100 years compared with +1.56C for the whole period.  That’s not much above dead flat.

Southern Extra Tropics:

Apr 16  SH ExtraTropics

The Pause has lengthened by one month.

Northern Polar:

Apr 16 NP

No change.

Southern Polar:

Apr 16 SP

At -0.18C/ 100 years, this region is cooling for the entire record.

USA 49 States:

Apr 16 USA 49

No change


Apr 16 Oz

One month longer.

The next graphs summarise the above plots. First, a graph of the relative length of The Pause in the various regions:

Pause length

Apart from  the North Polar, whose Pause is shorter, and the Northern Extra Tropics, whose Pause has ended, all other regions have a Pause of 18 years 3 months (half the record) or longer- including the South Polar region which has been cooling for the whole record,

The variation in the linear trend for the whole record, 1978 to the present:

Trends 1978 regions

Note the decrease in trends from North Polar to South Polar.

And the variation in the linear trend since June 1998, which is about halfway between the global low point of December 1997 and the peak in December 1998:

Trends 1998 regions

The only region to show strong warming for this period is the North Polar region: the Northern Extra Tropics at +0.18C/ 100 years has very mild warming, and the Northern Hemisphere at +0.12C/ 100 years is virtually flat: all other regions are Paused or cooling.

12 month means will continue to grow for the next few months, so the Pause as  here defined may disappear shortly, and may not reappear until early 2018.  The impact of the coming La Nina will be worth watching.  Unless temperatures reset at a new, higher level and continue rising, very low trends will remain.

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3 Responses to “The Pause Update: April 2016”

  1. Mason I. Bilderberg (MIB) Says:

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  2. „Global Warming“ Reality Check April 2016: Die globalen Temperaturen gehen weiter zurück – wobleibtdieglobaleerwaermung Says:

    […] The Pause Update: April 2016 […]

  3. Die globale Abkühlung verstärkt sich – „Global Warming“ Reality Check Mai 2016 – wobleibtdieglobaleerwaermung Says:

    […] The Pause Update: April 2016 […]

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