Interim Pause Update: July 2016

This is a brief initial post with the UAH data for July 2016 with Global, Northern Hemisphere, Southern Hemisphere, and Tropical data only, which were released this morning.  I will post all graphs when the full dataset is available in about one week’s time.

Globe:

Pause july 16 globe

The Pause is hanging on but the trend will probably go above +0.1C per 100 years next month.

Northern Hemisphere:

Pause july 16 nh

The Pause is over, but the trend for the past 18 years and 3 months is +0.28C, which is about one fifth of the trend for the whole satellite period.

Southern Hemisphere:

Pause july 16 sh

The Pause has shortened by 4 months to 20 years and 2 months.

Tropics:

Pause july 16 tropics

The Pause has decreased to 19 years 1 month.

All graphs will be available shortly.

Tags: , ,

10 Responses to “Interim Pause Update: July 2016”

  1. Schwache Sonne – kühle Erde! La Niña ist da: „Global Warming“ Reality Check Juli 2016 – wobleibtdieglobaleerwaermung Says:

    […] Der Plot zeigt das laufende 12-Monatsmittel der globalen Satellitendaten von UAH v6.0 von Dezember 1978 (Beginn der Satellitenmessungen) bis Juli 2016. Von Februar 1998 bis Juli 2016 (dicke braune Linie) gibt es keinen globalen Temperaturanstieg, also seit 18 Jahren und 6 Monaten oder 222 Monaten. Dies ist fast die Hälfte des gesamten Messzeitraums seit Dezember 1978 (dünne braune waagerechte Linie). Quelle: Interim Pause Update: July 2016 […]

  2. ngard2016 Says:

    Ken thanks for this interim pause update. Steve McIntyre has an interesting post about the Law Dome series from Antarctica that shows a steady decline in temp over the Holocene.
    Most of the alarmist scientists try to hide this data “for obvious reasons” and Steve shows the recent data torturing methods of Gergis following the same trend.
    Just thought that you may be interested in this Climate audit link because you’ve found a decline in temp since DEC 1978 from South polar UAH data. Law Dome shows a decline since the Hol climate optimum.

    https://climateaudit.org/2016/08/03/gergis-and-law-dome/#more-22100

    • kenskingdom Says:

      Thanks for the link. I will be posting re very long climate records (glacial and interglacial scales) using a number of datasets in the next couple of days.

  3. MikeR Says:

    Interesting about the Antarctic data. As Ken pointed out previously the UAH data for the land and ocean components of UAH data show different trends (See https://kenskingdom.wordpress.com/2016/04/17/antarctic-trends/).

    The positive trend for the UAH land data for the South Pole is in line with the BEST data showing warming in Antarctic- see http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/regions/antarctica . For the Law Dome, the BEST data for the Law Dome can be found at http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/stations/151561 .

    By the way Ken, are you using UAH V6 beta 5 for your calculations? I have tried to emulate your calculations using the current global UAH data with running 12 month averages. You show in your top figure a trend of 0.00075 (I assume degrees per month) which corresponds to 0.09 degrees per century.

    When I do my calculations I get the minimum slope of 0.11 degrees per century (using March 1998 as the starting point, similarly for Feb 1998). I have done these calculations in Excel and confirmed them using Matlab.

    Very puzzling and normally I wouldn’t quibble over small differences but we it seems we don’t have to wait until next month to bury the pause , even using your somewhat bizarre methodology of 12 month running averages and the arbitrary criterion of defining the pause as being a trend less than 0.1 degrees per century. Maybe it is time to raise the bar again and you could get a few more months out of this exercise.

    In contrast , if we just use the raw unadulterated UAH data the global pause has been dead and buried for 5 months.

  4. kenskingdom Says:

    Hi Mike, nothing new I see. I’d double check your calculations because mine are spot on.
    The full July dataset has been released- will try to post tomorrow if possible but might be a day or two longer.

    • MikeR Says:

      Hi Ken,

      Finally sorted out our discrepancy above with regard to the trends. There are at least three, if not more, versions of UAH V6 beta5 floating around. They seem to change the data very slightly from month to month with 0.01 degree differences for about 5 to 10% of the months. These small changes are hard to spot by eye as they are for months at least a year prior to the latest month.

      With a version of a couple of months ago , I get the same value that you calculated of 0.33 while the latest version gives 0.35 degrees C per century.

      It looks like one has to be careful and update the spreadsheets from the very latest version of UAH 6 beta 5, not just add the new monthly temperatures to the spreadsheet.

      At least that is sorted out and our numbers should agree from now on and we can get onto more substantive issues.

  5. MikeR Says:

    Hi Ken,

    I have rechecked my spreadsheet and Matlab calculations and have close agreement with your calculations for the trend since 1979 for the 4 graphs above, but significant discrepancies with your values for the shorter term trends.

    Maybe the problem is with the rolling 12 month average. It appears you are forward averaging i.e. your last date is August 2015 which is the average of that month’s temperature with the following 11 months up to July 2016 which gives a value of 0.48 C . Similarly the value for April 1997 is 0.1575 C . Hopefully you have the same values . If they are different then this should allow us to clear up the discrepancies.

    Finally I calculate the smallest trend value for the global data (after smoothing) to be 0.11 degrees C per century- see the following link.

    https://s32.postimg.org/cabp2jy11/trend_April_1997.jpg .

    Ken, I am looking forward to your post for the full dataset. I have managed to automate the process so it is a one step process to calculate the minimum (and maximum trends) for all 27 regions/data sets for both smoothed and raw data, for any starting time until the present, so hopefully we can compare notes.

  6. ngard2016 Says:

    A new NASA study has found that the earth is heating the Greenland ice sheet from below. Not their so called CAGW. The temp at the bottom of the ice sheet is 10 degrees warmer than the surface.
    The same heating from undersea volcanoes was found to be heating the West Antarctic ice sheet. But even so that area has been cooling for at least 18 years. Here’s the Greenland study link.

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/science/696717/CLIMATE-CHANGE-SHOCK-Ice-sheet-melt-caused-by-heat-from-Earth-s-core-NOT-global-warming

  7. Das Jahr 2016 ist nun kälter als 1998: „Global Warming“ Reality Check August 2016 – wobleibtdieglobaleerwaermung Says:

    […] Der Plot zeigt das laufende 12-Monatsmittel der globalen Satellitendaten von UAH v6.0 von Dezember 1978 (Beginn der Satellitenmessungen) bis Juli 2016. Von Februar 1998 bis Juli 2016 (dicke braune Linie) gibt es keinen globalen Temperaturanstieg, also seit 18 Jahren und 6 Monaten oder 222 Monaten. Dies ist fast die Hälfte des gesamten Messzeitraums seit Dezember 1978 (dünne braune waagerechte Linie). Quelle: Interim Pause Update: July 2016 […]

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s


%d bloggers like this: