The Pause Update: October 2016

The complete UAH v6.0 data for October have just been released. I present all the graphs for various regions, and as well summaries for easier comparison. The Pause has ended globally and for the Northern Hemisphere, and the Tropics, but still refuses to go away in the Southern Hemisphere.

These graphs show the furthest back one can go to show a zero or negative trend (less than 0.1 +/-0.1C per 100 years) in lower tropospheric temperatures. I calculate 12 month running means to remove the small possibility of seasonal autocorrelation in the monthly anomalies. Note: The satellite record commences in December 1978- now 37 years and 11 months long- 455 months. 12 month running means commence in November 1979. The y-axes in the graphs below are at December 1978, so the vertical gridlines denote Decembers. The final plotted points are October 2016.




The Pause has ended. A trend of +0.23 C/100 years (+/- 0.1C) since March 1998 is about one fifth of the trend for the whole record.

And, for the special benefit of those who think that I am deliberately fudging data by using 12 month running means, here is the plot of monthly anomalies:


Northern Hemisphere:


The Northern Hemisphere Pause has well and truly ended.

Southern Hemisphere:


For well over half the record, the Southern Hemisphere still has zero trend.  The Pause may end shortly.



The Pause in the Tropics (20N to 20S) has ended.

Tropical Oceans:


The Pause has ended for ocean areas.

Northern Extra Tropics:


The minimal trend is creeping up- how high will it go before decreasing again?

Southern Extra Tropics:


The Pause persists.

Northern Polar:


The trend has increased a lot.

Southern Polar:


The South Polar region has been cooling for the entire record- 37 years.

USA 49 States:


No change.



No change.

The next graphs summarise the above plots. First, a graph of the relative length of The Pause in the various regions:


Note that the Pause has ended by my criteria in all regions of Northern Hemisphere, and consequently the Globe, and the Tropics, but all southern regions have a Pause for over half the record, including the South Polar region which has been cooling for the whole record.

The variation in the linear trend for the whole record, 1978 to the present:


Note the decrease in trends from North Polar to South Polar.

And the variation in the linear trend since June 1998, which is about halfway between the global low point of December 1997 and the peak in December 1998:


The imbalance between the two hemispheres is obvious. The lower troposphere over Australia has been strongly cooling for more than 18 years- just shy of half the record.

The next few months will be interesting. The Pause may disappear from the Southern Hemisphere soon. The behaviour of the Tropics and the South Polar regions will be crucial.  (I would like to see separate data for the Extra-tropical regions from 20 to 60 degrees north and south.)


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4 Responses to “The Pause Update: October 2016”

  1. Geoff Sherrington Says:

    Thanks for the data. This is not a criticism, but I cannot reconcile by eye the area above and below the brown line on some graphs, to cancel out the difference. The region from 2002-07 seems to have too little below the line once I have balanced all other dates. Of course, eyeball is terrible, buy it is usually how one picks up possible errors. Would a quick check from scratch be worthwhile?
    Tropical oceans was my first note.

  2. ngard2016 Says:

    Ken what do you make of this claim about a big drop in RSS TLT over land? The data are available at the full post link. The Greenland claim looks interesting as well.

    • kenskingdom Says:

      Coming off the El Nino, land areas are cooling much faster than oceans, which in UAH are at record high levels still. Globally, land area monthly figure is down to “pause” level, but North Polar land temp is still high while NP ocean is at record level. Cooling land in high latitudes with warm oceans should lead to increased snowfall. I have a post coming up re ocean SST.

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