The Pause Update: April 2017

The complete UAH v6.0 data for April have finally been released. I present all the graphs for various regions, and as well summaries for easier comparison. I also include graphs for the North and South Temperate regions (20-60 North and South), estimated from Polar and Extra-Tropical data.

The Pause has ended globally and for all regions including the USA and the Southern Hemisphere, except for Southern Extra-Tropics, South Temperate, South Polar, and Australia. The 12 month mean to April 2017 for the Globe is +0.36 C and continuing steadily downwards.

These graphs show the furthest back one can go to show a zero or negative trend (less than 0.1 +/-0.1C per 100 years) in lower tropospheric temperatures. I calculate 12 month running means to remove the small possibility of seasonal autocorrelation in the monthly anomalies. Note: The satellite record commences in December 1978- now 38 years and five months long- 461 months. 12 month running means commence in November 1979. The y-axes in the graphs below are at December 1978, so the vertical gridlines denote Decembers. The final plotted points are March 2017.


Pause Apr 17 globe

The Pause has ended. A trend of +0.44 C/100 years (+/- 0.1C) since March 1998 is creeping up, but the 12 month means have peaked and are heading down.

And, for the special benefit of those who think that I am deliberately fudging data by using 12 month running means, here is the plot of monthly anomalies:

Pause Apr 17 globe monthly

Northern Hemisphere:

Pause Apr 17 NH

The Northern Hemisphere Pause has well and truly ended.

Southern Hemisphere:

Pause Apr 17 SH

The Pause has ended but temperatures for the last 19 years are rising very slowly.


Pause Apr 17 Tropics

The Pause in the Tropics (20N to 20S) has ended and the minimal trend is now +0.45C/ 100 years. 12 month means are dropping fast.

Northern Extra Tropics:

Pause Apr 17 NExT

Northern Temperate Region:

Pause Apr 17 NTemp

Using estimates calculated from North Polar and Northern Extra-Tropics data, the slowdown is obvious.

Southern Extra Tropics:

Pause Apr 17 SExT

The Pause has weakened and shortened but still persists, and 12 month means have peaked.

Southern Temperate Region:

Pause Apr 17 STemp

Using estimates calculated from South Polar and Southern Extra-Tropics data, the Pause likewise persists.

Northern Polar:

Pause Apr 17 NP

The trend has increased rapidly and will continue to do so even though 12 month means have started to fall.  There is an argument for saying that no recent pause is visible, but there was one for the first 16 years.

Southern Polar:

Pause Apr 17 SP

The South Polar region has been cooling (-0.16C) for the entire record. Although the 12 month means may have peaked, this cooling trend will slow over the next few months.

USA 49 States:

Pause Apr 17 USA49

The Pause has ended. It will not re-appear for some time.


Pause Apr 17 Oz

The Pause is still 21 years 2 months- well over half the record.

The next graphs summarise the above plots. First, a graph of the relative length of The Pause in the various regions:

Pause length Apr 17

Note that the Pause has ended by my criteria in all regions of Northern Hemisphere, and consequently the Globe, and the Tropics, but all southern regions have a Pause for over half the record, including the South Polar region which has been cooling for the whole record. Note that the Tropic influence has been enough to end the Pause for the Southern Hemisphere.

The variation in the linear trend for the whole record, 1978 to the present:

Trends 78 now Apr 17

Note the decrease in trends from North Polar to South Polar.

And the variation in the linear trend since June 1998, which is about halfway between the global low point of December 1997 and the peak in December 1998:

Trends June 98 now Apr 17

The imbalance between the two hemispheres is obvious. The lower troposphere over Australia has been strongly cooling for 18 years and 11 months- over half the record.  The Pause has disappeared from the USA and the Southern Hemisphere, but not the Southern Extra-Tropics, South Temperate, and South Polar regions, or Australia. El Nino tropical heat is rapidly decreasing, with all means falling. The next few months will be interesting.

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5 Responses to “The Pause Update: April 2017”

  1. ngard2016 Says:

    Ken are you saying that OZ is now cooling in TLT at about 0.3 c per century since June 1998? Does that apply to OZ for TMT as well? If not what is that OZ TMT trend?
    And can you find any tropical hot spot in TLT or TMT compared to other regions. There doesn’t seem to be. Have you got any theories why OZ has been paused or cooling for over 21 years at this time?
    Also doesn’t AGW theory state that there should be enhanced warming at the poles? So why has the SP region missed out since DEC 1978? Thanks.

    • kenskingdom Says:

      Yes Australian TLT have been cooling at -0.31C/ 100 yrs since June 1998.
      Mid Troposphere has been paused- +0.07C/100 yrs since then as well.
      There is no tropical hotspot in TLT, nor in TMT.
      No theories- anyone’s guess.
      And SP- because global warming is not true.

      • ngard2016 Says:

        Thanks Ken and keep up the good work. Any thoughts on my Ant pen comment below? Thanks again.

  2. ngard2016 Says:

    This latest BAS study now finds that the Antarctic peninsula has been cooling since 1998. Amazing that this most northerly and seemingly vulnerable prong is now cooling after all the warnings from Gore plus all media and scientists for many decades.
    They’re now doing their best to assure us we will still be swamped by SLR, just you wait. That’s unless we agree to waste endless trillions $ until 2100. All stupid mitigation BS of course, but who cares? Here’s New Scientist’s desperate spin.

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