The Pause Update: May 2017

The complete UAH v6.0 data for May have been released. I present all the graphs for various regions, and as well summaries for easier comparison. I also include graphs for the North and South Temperate regions (20-60 North and South), estimated from Polar and Extra-Tropical data.

The Pause has ended globally and for all regions including the USA and the Southern Hemisphere, except for Southern Extra-Tropics, South Temperate, South Polar, and Australia. The 12 month mean to May 2017 for the Globe is +0.35 C – down 0.01C from April.

These graphs show the furthest back one can go to show a zero or negative trend (less than 0.1 +/-0.1C per 100 years) in lower tropospheric temperatures. I calculate 12 month running means to remove the small possibility of seasonal autocorrelation in the monthly anomalies. Note: The satellite record commences in December 1978- now 38 years and six months long- 462 months. 12 month running means commence in November 1979. The y-axes in the graphs below are at December 1978, so the vertical gridlines denote Decembers. The final plotted points are May 2017.


Pause May 17 globe

The Pause has ended. A trend of +0.46 C/100 years (+/- 0.1C) since March 1998 is creeping up, but the 12 month means have peaked and are heading down.

And, for the special benefit of those who think that I am deliberately fudging data by using 12 month running means, here is the plot of monthly anomalies:

Pause May 17 globe mthly

Northern Hemisphere:

Pause May 17 NH

The Northern Hemisphere Pause has well and truly ended.

Southern Hemisphere:

Pause May 17 SH

The Pause has ended but temperatures for the last 19 years are rising very slowly.


Pause May 17 Tropics

The Pause in the Tropics (20N to 20S) has ended and the minimal trend is now +0.47C/ 100 years. 12 month means are dropping fast.

Northern Extra Tropics:

Pause May 17 NExt

Northern Temperate Region:

Pause May 17 NTemp

Using estimates calculated from North Polar and Northern Extra-Tropics data, the slowdown is obvious.

Southern Extra Tropics:

Pause May 17 SExt

The Pause has weakened but still persists, and 12 month means have peaked.

Southern Temperate Region:

Pause May 17 STemp

Using estimates calculated from South Polar and Southern Extra-Tropics data, the Pause likewise persists.

Northern Polar:

Pause May 17 NP

The trend has increased rapidly and will continue to do so even though 12 month means have started to fall.  The horizontal black lines show the pause for the first 16 years, and the pause from 2003 – 2015.  The strong trend in Arctic temperatures is due to a step change from 1995 – 2002, and the strong 2015 – 2016 El Nino.

Southern Polar:

Pause May 17 SP

The South Polar region has been cooling (-0.14C) for the entire record. Although the 12 month means may have peaked, this cooling trend will slow over the next few months, and Global Warming Enthusiasts may start to get excited.

USA 49 States:

Pause May 17 USA49

The Pause has ended. It will not re-appear for some time.  And by the way, that is almost entirely due to Alaska: here’s the plot without Alaska:

Pause May 17 USA48

Paused!  But that could disappear as well.


Pause May 17 Oz

The Pause has shortened dramatically, but is still 19 years 9 months- over half the record.   And the trend since September 1995, two years longer, is less than +0.2C.

The next graphs summarise the above plots. First, a graph of the relative length of The Pause in the various regions:

Pause Length May 17

Note that the Pause has ended by my criteria in all regions of Northern Hemisphere, and consequently the Globe, and the Tropics, but all southern regions have a Pause for over half the record, including the South Polar region which has been cooling for the whole record. Note that the Tropic influence has been enough to end the Pause for the Southern Hemisphere.

The variation in the linear trend for the whole record, 1978 to the present:

Pause May 17 trends 78

Note the decrease in trends from North Polar to South Polar.

And the variation in the linear trend since June 1998, which is about halfway between the global low point of December 1997 and the peak in December 1998:

Pause May 17 trends 98

For 19 years “global” warming has been dominated by the influence of the Tropics and North Polar regions.

The imbalance between the two hemispheres is obvious.

The lower troposphere over Australia has been strongly cooling for those 19 years- over half the record.

The Pause has disappeared from the USA and the Southern Hemisphere, but not the Southern Extra-Tropics, South Temperate, and South Polar regions, or Australia. El Nino tropical heat is rapidly decreasing, with all means falling. The next few months will be interesting.


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12 Responses to “The Pause Update: May 2017”

  1. ngard2016 Says:

    So Ken what do you think about the 2017 Santer et al study ( Mann, Mears of RSS are co authors) that now admits that the models show too much warming? Of course this study uses Satellite troposphere temps and not surface data like HAD 4 and GISS.

    Here’s Dr Ryan Maue’s post from WUWT.

  2. ngard2016 Says:

    This is O/T, but interesting.
    Prof Stephen Hawking flies off the deep end, just unbelievable nonsense. Can’t these people read and comprehend?

    And UAH V 6 drops back to just +0.21 c for June.

  3. ngard2016 Says:

    Sorry I linked twice and landed in MOD again.

  4. ngard2016 Says:

    There has been a drop in TLT since May of 0.23 c in the UAH V 6 for the globe and a huge drop of 0.4 c in the SH. Why was the drop so great in the SH and where has that heat gone in just 30 days? Just asking?

    2017 05 +0.44 +0.39 +0.49 +0.41
    2017 06 +0.21 +0.32 +0.09 +0.39

  5. ngard2016 Says:

    RSS V 4 shows a drop of 0.14 c in global temp for June. But SH shows about 0.23 c or 0.17 c less than UAH. Seems a big difference in just 30 days? Of course global temp much higher than UAH , May was 0.63 c and June was 0.49 c= drop of 0.14 c. So why is RSS V 4 NOW so much higher than UAH V 6?

  6. ngard2016 Says:

    Also why is RSS V 4 so much higher than RSS V 3 as well?

  7. kenskingdom Says:

    I’ll do the June update as soon as possible after data are released; but a sharp downturn is entirely expected.

    • ngard2016 Says:

      Thanks Ken, but why the difference now between RSS V4 , RSS V 3 and UAH V 6? Or why is the new version 4 showing a much higher trend although S Polar region is still showing no warming since 1978 on all data sets.

  8. ngard2016 Says:

    Dr Roy Spencer compares the latest RSS V 4 TLT dataset with UAH V 6 TLT. Note that both are well below average model trends.
    Average model trends are about 2.7 c/ decade and UAH V6 trend is just 1.2 c/decade and RSS V4 trend is about 1.7 c/decade. Therefore average model trends are 2.25 times higher than UAH V 6 and 1.6 times higher than RSS V 4.

    • ngard2016 Says:

      Sorry the above should be average model trend 0.27 c/ decade, UAH trend 0.12 c/dec and RSS trend 0.17 c/dec

  9. Eisige Antarktis: Riesiger Eisberg bricht unter wachsender Last ab! Antarktiseis wächst seit 10.000 Jahren! – wobleibtdieglobaleerwaermung Says:

    […] „The South Polar region has been cooling (-0.14C) for the entire record. Although the 12 month means may have peaked, this cooling trend will slow over the next few months, and Global Warming Enthusiasts may start to get excited.“ Quelle: The Pause Update: May 2017 […]

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