Archive for June, 2019

More Footprint Comparisons

June 18, 2019

In my previous post I showed different ways of comparing carbon dioxide emissions.

Here are some more, unashamedly with an Australian focus, in different formats.

As in my last post I use data from the Global Carbon Atlas for fossil fuel emissions for 2017 (the most recent data available), and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from the World Bank, also for 2017. GDP for each nation is calculated in current US dollars.

Percentages

Figure 1 shows cumulative percentages of 2017 fossil fuel emissions for all 202 countries with available data.

Fig. 1:  Cumulative CO2 emissions 2017 expressed as percentages

Globalco2 cum %

China, the USA, and India are the big hitters.  China produces 28.5% on its own.  Australia, in 16th place, produces 1.2% of global emissions, a bit behind Canada at 1.66%, and just ahead of the UK at 1.12%.  France and Italy are just over 1% each.  The remaining 183 countries each produce less than 1% – many much less.

Earth Hours

Earth Hour, where some people show how virtuous they are by switching off their lights for an hour in order to reduce emissions, might provide another way of comparing emissions.  I next compare emissions by units of “Earth Hours”.  One Australian Earth Hour is the amount of CO2 emissions reduced when:

Across Australia, all lights powered by fossil fuels; all stoves, fridges, air conditioners, and other appliances; all battery chargers; all street lights, traffic lights, and emergency lighting; all hospitals, schools, shopping centres, and telecommunications including computers; all mining operations; all transport- cars, trucks, trains, and aircraft; all farming operations; all water pumping; all manufacturing industry small and large, including steel and aluminium; all building and construction:  are shut down for one hour.

That is one Australian Earth Hour.

One Chinese Earth Hour is equal to 23.82 Australian Earth Hour units- Australia could run for 23 hours and 48 minutes on the equivalent amount of emissions. The value for America in Australian Earth Hours is 12 hours and 45 minutes; India, 6 hours; Russia, 4 hours; Japan, 2 hours 54 minutes. The value for the UK is 55 minutes and 53 seconds worth of Australian emissions output.

At the other end of the scale, El Salvador’s hourly emissions would last Australia for one minute.  Tuvalu’s total emissions are the equivalent of one tenth of one second of Australia’s emissions.

Efficiency

Here’s another idea.  Australia is the world’s 13th largest economy, and achieves this with emissions per dollar of GDP that put us in 105th place.  For all nations the average CO2 emissions per US dollar of GDP is 485 grams per dollar.  What if all countries were as efficient as Australia?  That is, they all had the same amount of emissions as Australia: 312 grams of CO2 per dollar of GDP.

Figure 2 shows what global emissions would look like if all nations were as efficient as Australia.

Fig. 2:  Global fossil fuel emissions currently and at Australia’s rate per dollar GDP

Global Oz efficiency

Or, to put it another way, Figure 3 shows the effect on the global economy for the same level of emissions.

Fig. 3:  Global GDP currently and at Australia’s emissions rate per dollar GDP

Global GDP Oz efficiency

That’s a potential increase of 37.7%.

Conclusion

Australia is punching above its weight in regard to efficiency of fossil fuel emissions per dollar of GDP.  Our carbon footprint is tiny compared with the big three- China, the USA, and India.  While there is always room for us to improve, if every country behaved as well as we do, the world would be a better place.

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Carbon Footprints in Perspective

June 16, 2019

According to a Lowy poll before our recent “climate change election”, apparently 89% of Australians were in favour of action on climate change.  They got it wrong of course, but there is still much gnashing of teeth over the size of our carbon footprint, especially in regard to our emissions per capita.   According to the University of Melbourne’s Climate Energy College, “Australia’s per-capita emissions remain the highest among its key trading partners”.

So how does Australia rate in the world of carbon emissions?

In this post I use data from the Global Carbon Atlas for fossil fuel emissions for 2017 (the most recent data available), and population, land area, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from the World Bank, also for 2017. GDP for each nation is calculated in current US dollars.

Figure 1 shows 2017 fossil fuel emissions for all 202 countries with available data, in millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide.

Fig. 1:  Fossil fuel emissions 2017

CO2top5

In 2017 China was way in front with close to 10 billion tonnes of CO2 emitted, distantly followed by the USA, with India, Russia, and Japan well behind.  Australia was in 16th place, following Germany, Iran, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Canada, Mexico, Indonesia, Brazil, South Africa, and Turkey.  At the other end of the scale the tiny Pacific nation of Tuvalu emitted only 13,000 tonnes of CO2.

In absolute terms our 413 million Tonnes of CO2 emissions are mediocre.  In the 20 years from 1998 to 2017, Australia’s carbon footprint increased by 78.4 million tonnes.  China’s increased by 6,573 million tonnes.  We’re not in the race, and it is blindingly obvious that however much we reduce our emissions we will have almost zero impact on the global total.

That is the reason that global warming enthusiasts in academia and the media promote the idea of per capita emissions- because we look worse that way.

Fig. 2:  2017 emissions per capita

CO2percap

It is certainly true that we emit larger amounts of CO2 per person compared with our major trading partners.  Fossil fuel is dirt cheap in oil rich nations, but in poor African countries each person emits less than a quarter of a Tonne of CO2 from fossil fuels per year.  There, firewood is the fuel of necessity, with severe consequences for health and the environment.  It is interesting that New Caledonia emits more per head than Australia.

Why does Australia hold this position?  The amount of wealth created by fossil fuel use is a measure of productivity and efficiency.  Figure 3 shows how countries rate in efficiency- how much CO2 is emitted for each US dollar in GDP.

Fig. 3:  2017 emissions per US $ GDP

CO2per$

Less is better.  Poorer countries that burn a lot of fossil fuel, and larger nations that do the same- including Russia, India, China, South Korea, and Indonesia- have less efficient economies than western nations including Canada, Australia, and the USA.  Small countries, especially those with nuclear and renewable energy, rich island nations, and poor African nations using very little fossil fuel make up the best.  Australia has a productive economy with historically cheap fossil fuels- but the most important reason for our relatively high emissions per capita is our size.

Figure 4, a comparison of carbon intensity, is an alternative way of comparing emissions, and because it takes into account the natural advantages of other advanced economies, demonstrates our carbon efficiency much better than population or GDP comparisons.

Fig. 4: 2017 emissions per land area

CO2persqkm

Australia, in 144th position, is followed only by countries with much smaller economies, and none of them apart from Iceland and Greenland are European.  All of our major trading partners, and many others, have much higher carbon intensity than Australia.  All Pacific Island nations, except for Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu, and the Solomon Islands, have higher carbon intensity as well.

Why?  Our economy is diffused across a wide brown land.  Even our cities are relatively thinly populated by world standards.  Production centres and markets are vast distances apart.  Russia, China, Canada, the USA, and Brazil are all larger in area than Australia.  Even so, our emissions are much less: Australia- 53.7 Tonnes per square kilometre; Brazil- 61.5; Canada- 63; Russia- 103.4; USA- 576; China- 1,048 Tonnes per square kilometre.

Don’t preach to us- Australia is a carbon sink by comparison with most other countries.

*****

As an appendix, here are three plots showing Australia’s relative position in the world.

Fig. 5:  2017 population

Poptop5

Fig. 6:  2017 GDP

GDPtop5

Fig. 7:  Land area

Areatop5

Australia is sixth in land area, 13th in GDP, and 53rd in population.  We are a large, under-populated, productive nation.  Naturally we have fossil fuel emissions to match.