Every morning I get these annoying “click bait” pop-ups on my phone, which I usually ignore. This morning I weakened, and tapped the headline:
Antarctica Melting: Climate change and the journey to the “doomsday glacier”.
Knowing a bit about Antarctica, I dismissed it as more BBC rubbish, but just a few minutes ago I received a message from the Institute of Public Affairs with a link to a press release and article by the Global Warming Policy Forum. Here it is in full:
Press Release 29/01/20
BBC Accused of Misleading Reporting About Melting Antarctic Glacier
Why did the BBC fail to mention the volcanoes underneath?
London, 29 January: The Global Warming Policy Forum has criticised the BBC for misleading the public about the melting of the Thwaites Glacier.
In its numerous reports online, on radio and on television, the BBC blamed the melting of this Antarctic glacier on climate change. However, the BBC’s reports do not mention an important fact that has been widely known and that the BBC itself has reported previously – the influence of volcanoes beneath the glacier.
Scientists have known for years that subglacial volcanoes and other geothermal “hotspots” underneath the glacier are contributing to the melting of the Thwaites Glacier.
“Despite claims about climate change and admonition to lower our greenhouse gas emission as a way to ameliorate the melting of Thwaites, the BBC should have been pointing out that what is happening underneath the glacier could be in large parts an act of geology and one of those natural and globally-important dynamics that have been occurring throughout the ages,” said GWPF science editor Dr David Whitehouse.
What is more, the scientists will remain on Thwaites for a while. They have not analysed their data yet, so claims that they have confirmed “the Thwaites glacier is melting even faster than scientists thought…” are premature.
…..
More information about the Thwaites Glacier and the BBC’s misleading reporting can be found on the GWPF website.
I have long suspected that any warming in Antarctica might be due to the large volcanic province beneath West Antarctica, when UAH satellite temperatures show no sign of Antarctic warming, as I have shown here.
I’m pleased the GWPF is onto it so quickly, and many thanks to the IPA for alerting me.
From the Bureau’s solar radiation glossary, “Downward infrared irradiance is a measurement of the irradiance arriving on a horizontal plane at the Earth’s surface, for wavelengths in the range 4 – 100 μm (the wavelength emitted by atmospheric gases and aerosols). It is related to a `representative (or effective radiative) temperature’ of the Earth’s atmosphere by the Stefan-Boltzmann Law: E = σ T4 Where: E = irradiance measured [W/m2] σ = Stefan-Boltzmann constant [5.67 x 10-8 W/m2/K4 T = representative atmospheric temperature [K] Consequently, this quantity will continue to have a positive value, even at night time. It can be measured using an Eppley PIR pyrgeometer.”
As atmospheric temperature increases, DWIR must also increase. This would be a symptom of warming. A reader commented: ”What we need is DWIR nighttime measurements only (preferably without clouds) in a location where there is little or no water vapour. Atacama Chile would be perfect. Alice Springs maybe but less so. i am willing to bet that one couldn’t measure the DWIR at night without clouds in Atacama because it would be so low.” I am unable to get data for Atacama, but here is DWIR data for Alice Springs for July 2018. July is mid-winter and usually dry and cloud free. No rain fell in July 2018 at the Alice. Figure 1 shows maxima and minima for the month: While July had no rain, there were several large weather changes shown by the spikes and dips in temperature. Coldest temperatures were on 12-13-14 July. Fig.1: Surface temperatures Alice Springs July 2018
Next, downwelling IR. The weather changes show up in IR as well. Fig.2: Downwelling IR Alice Springs July 2018
Now for IR in the hours of darkness: Fig.3: Downwelling IR Alice Springs July 2018 at night (6pm to 6am)
Clearly, DWIR is real and measurable at night, in all conditions. It usually (but not always) decreases in a smooth curve. Putting it together, we see a clear daily cycle: DWIR usually increases rapidly in daytime, and decreases at night. Fig.4: Downwelling IR Alice Springs July 2018 by day and night
Now we look at typical IR behaviour in cool, dry conditions on 12 and 13 July 2018. The x-axis is in 3 hourly divisions and I have marked in midnight of 12-13. Fig.5: Downwelling IR Alice Springs 12-13 July 2018
Note the curve is not completely smooth: there are little variations due to pockets of different temperatures in the air. The lowest DWIR values (227.36 Watts/sq.metre averaged over one minute) are reached around 8.00 a.m. shortly after sunrise, then values rise rapidly before tapering off to peak in the late afternoon. During the night they decrease until the sun heats the ground again in the morning. Now for the period 5 to 8 July: Fig.6: Downwelling IR Alice Springs 5-8 July 2018
On the 6th and 8th strange things happen after midnight, almost certainly clouds. Strange things also happen from 23 to 25 July. On the 24th a heavy bank of cloud comes over and clears with a sudden dry change after sundown, with more separated clouds arriving later at night before finally clearing about 9 a.m. next morning. Fig.7: Downwelling IR Alice Springs 23 – 25 July 2018
How do I know those spikes were caused by clouds? Here’s direct radiation and IR for 23-25 July. Fig.8: Downwelling IR and Direct Irradiance Alice Springs 23 – 25 July 2018
Direct irradiance is the radiation from the sun’s direct beam. It is zero at night but rises rapidly to peak at local solar noon, then rapidly falls to zero at dusk. Not all solar radiation reaches the surface. Some is reflected, some is scattered by dust, smoke, or rain drops, but on a clear day the pattern is like 23 July. On 24 July clouds block the sun’s direct rays for most of the day, and downwelling IR increases markedly. This is from warm moist air in the cloud which has come from somewhere else. My conclusion: Downwelling infra-red radiation (so called “back radiation”) is real and measurable including at night. It is greatly increased by cloud and humidity, and there is always some moisture in the air even in the desert. It results from the ground heating up in the daytime, which then loses heat by conduction, convection, and radiation, into the atmosphere where the IR is repeatedly absorbed and re-emitted in all directions by greenhouse gases (including water vapour). A warmer atmosphere from whatever cause, natural or enhanced, will result in greater downwelling IR.
Future posts will look at the relationship between solar radiation, downwelling IR, and temperature.
Australia, being a wealthy, modern, western nation with a very well-resourced Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), might be expected to have weather stations that set a high standard of siting and reliability.
Unfortunately, that is far from the case. This pie chart shows the percentage of weather stations that comply with siting specifications, don’t meet those specifications, or are “marginal”- not fully compliant but not as bad as some.
Less than a third comply and may be relied on (assuming that the screen and the immediate area around it is kept well maintained with a few centimetres of natural grass, and the surrounding environment does not change).
This map, thanks to Lance Pidgeon, shows the locations of weather stations audited.
As you can see, removing non-compliant and marginal sites leaves very large gaps.
Australia’s climate analysis is based on 112 stations in the ACORN-SAT network. I surveyed 111 Acorn stations. (Wittenoom stopped reporting in July 2019 and is now apparently closed). Here is a pie chart of Acorn station compliance:
Again, thanks to Lance, this is a map of Australian Acorn stations….
…and this map shows the layout of the Acorn network with non-compliant stations removed, leaving marginal and compliant sites.
Only New South Wales has a decent density of compliant sites. There are huge gaps in Queensland, Western Australia, and South Australia. No wonder the Bureau is desperately defending their realm!
Of 666 weather stations I was able to identify and survey, nearly half (328) did not comply with siting specifications.
Less than a third (209) fully comply (assuming that the screens and surroundings are well maintained).
Another 129 are marginal- not fully compliant but not as bad as the non-compliant sites.
48 of the 111 remaining Acorn stations are not compliant, and a further 22 are marginal.
The Bureau of Meteorology starts its climate analysis using Acorn from 1910. Reasons given are that the network, especially in remote areas, and also Western Australia and Tasmania, was extremely sparse before this, and except in Queensland and South Australia (where Clement Wragge had instituted Stevenson screens and standardised practises by the mid-1890s) temperature observations and instrument siting were non-standard. Temperature records before 1910 are not recognised by the Bureau. For example, the hottest temperature recorded, 53.1C at Cloncurry on 16 January 1889 is discounted as it was not recorded in a Stevenson screen; and the temperature of 51.6C in Bourke on 3 January 1909 is discounted, even though it was in a Stevenson screen. How can we be any more confident in current temperatures recorded at non-compliant sites?
With only 209 stations of the 666 surveyed fully complying with specifications, doubt must be raised not only about the modern network coverage but also the reliability and comparability of modern and historical temperature records.
The next step:
Over some time, I will be comparing data from several pairs of compliant and non-compliant stations to see if siting has any detectable effect on temperatures recorded.
Appendix:- Background and details of survey:
In July 2019 I commenced a 6 month long survey of 666 weather stations that currently report temperatures to the Latest Weather Observations pages for each state (also to Climate Data Online and to international weather and climate agencies). Many are used to make adjustments to Acorn stations. Of the 753 stations listed (and these change from time to time) I was able to identify and examine 666.
I did not include offshore island territories or islands far distant from the mainland (e.g. Willis island) but islands close to the coast were included. Other stations not included were those in the National Tidal Centre network, which are located on wharves and breakwaters and have beehive screens instead of Stevenson screens; Lucas Heights nuclear facility; a number of recent defence stations that were impossible to locate; stations in areas where satellite imagery has poor resolution, and a number of sites that have not yet been included in the BOM metadata and thus have no site plans and can’t be located- a good example is Wellcamp Airport in southern Queensland. (See below for the full list.)
The process I used is outlined in my post “How to check for yourself”. I also made use of information and photographs supplied by colleagues with local knowledge.
There are 328 examples of stations that are not compliant with specifications, listed by state here.
This is an example of a compliant station: Amberley AMO 40004 which is an Acorn station.
It has patches of rougher/ longer vegetation nearby and a large tree about 20 metres away.
(And the more I look at marginal sites the more I find that I should really have classified more as not compliant.)
These are the marginal stations (Acorn marked *):
Adelaide Airport
Middle Point
Armidale
Milingimbi
Batchelor
Moomba Airport
Batemans Bay
Mortlake
Bathurst *
Moss Vale
Boulia *
Mount Boyce
Bourke *
Mount Bundey North (Defence)
Bowen Airport AWS
Mount Crawford
Bradshaw-Angallari Valley (Defence)
Mount Ginini
Brisbane
Mount Ive
Brisbane Airport *
Mount Magnet Airport
Bulman
Mount Moornapa
Burketown Airport *
Mudgee
Cape Grim
Nambour
Cape Sorell
Neptune Island
Central Arnhem Plateau
New May Downs
Cerberus
Ngayawili (Elcho Island)
Charlton
Ngukurr AWS
Combienbar
Nhill Aerodrome *
Cooktown
Noarlunga
Coonawarra
Noonamah
Cootamundra
Nullo Mountain
Cowley Beach (Defence)
Oakey
Cultana (Defence)
Oodnadatta *
Darwin Airport *
Orbost *
Derby
Palmerville *
Devonport Airport
Parramatta
Dum In Mirrie
Pearce
Dwellingup
Port Augusta
Eildon Fire Tower
Port Fairy
Elliott
Portland Airport
Esperance Airport
Redland (Alexandra Hills)
Essendon Airport
Rhyll
Eucla *
Sheffield
Fingal
Sheoaks
Forrest *
Shepparton
Fowlers Gap
St George *
Gabo Island *
Stawell
Gelantipy
Stenhouse Bay
Grafton Airport
Swan Hill
Grove *
Sweers Island
Hamilton Island
Sydney Olympic Park
Horn Island *
Tabulam
Hume Reservoir
Tarcoola *
Hunters Hill
Taree Airport
Jervis Bay Airfield
Temora
Jervois
Tennant Creek *
kunanyi / Mount Wellington
Terrey Hills
Kununurra Airport
Thargomindah *
Lake Julius
The Monument
Lake Macquarie – Cooranbong
Tibooburra Airport *
Lake St Clair
Tocal
Lancelin (Defence)
Townsville Air Weapons Range (Defence)
Launceston Airport *
Trepell
Laverton (WA)
Tunnack
Legendre Island
Turretfield
Leigh Creek
Victor Harbor
Leonora Airport
Wadeye (Port Keats)
Lombadina
Warruwi
Lostock
White Cliffs AWS
Low Head *
Windorah
Luncheon Hill
Woolbrook
Mackay Airport
Yanakie
McArthur River Mine
Young
Melbourne Airport
These are the stations listed in Latest Weather Observations that I did not use (plus offshore island territories). You are welcome to try- let me know if you have any success.
Site compliance is important because temperature data from these stations is liberally reported in the media especially if hot or cold records are set. They also contribute to AWAP (the Australian Water Availability Project) and ADAM which produce maps of present and past temperatures. As well, data from these stations is used to homogenise data at stations in Australia’s ACORN-SAT network, which are used for showing trends since 1910. Finally, this data is exported to be used by international databases (GISS, CruTem4) for regional and global climate analysis. If the data is affected by site specific factors, e.g being too close to a road, this may affect the quality of the analysis.
I am agnostic as to the overall effect of these poorly sited stations. Maxima at some sites may be artificially low, or minima may be artificially high, and this may vary with seasons and rainfall. Analysis and comparison of temperatures will come later. My focus here is to show the large number of modern stations whose data may be unreliable.
The quality of these non-compliant stations varies. While some are truly horrendous, others are not nearly as bad, but all fail on one or more specifications.
Find your favourite station, click on it, and the link will take you to my assessment of its siting quality. Use the back arrow to return here.
The screen is 15 metres from a bitumen road, 36 metres from a bitumen carpark, and 18 metres from the railway track. It is also close to bare dirt. Further, in 2008, either the area was watered or else the natural grass was worn away or removed to bare dirt to within a few metres.
This station is non-compliant, with temperatures reported at Latest Weather Observations and used to adjust data at Acorn sites.
This Acorn station was established here in 2012, but there have been no site plans since 2011. For a period of time until the grass grew, the enclosure was “sand”- similar to the bare areas beside the concrete path. Like many airports, it is on a raised mound of sand 60cm above the surroundings, so the screen in effect is 1.8 metres above natural ground level.
This station is non-compliant, with temperatures reported at Latest Weather Observations but not used to adjust data at Acorn sites.
This station is in the middle of a vineyard, surrounded by irrigated grape vines which are periodically pruned then grow luxuriantly to a couple of metres high. The screen will thus be shielded by the vines. See Nuriootpa.
This station is non-compliant, with temperatures reported at Latest Weather Observations but not used to adjust data at Acorn sites.
An ideal rural location? Not so. The screen is close to a tall crop in large clumps, and there is another growing crop across the road. The surrounding vegetation changes as crops grow and are harvested. As well the enclosure appears not to be well maintained grass to a few centimetres.
This station is non-compliant, with temperatures reported at Latest Weather Observations and used to adjust data at Acorn sites.
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