CO2vid Watch: August

I have been wondering whether the largest real-life science experiment in history will show whether atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations will decrease as a result of the Covid19-induced economic slowdown.

Earlier I concluded:  “I expect there may be a small decrease in the rate of CO2 concentration increase, but it won’t be much, and I will be surprised if it turns negative.  A large La Nina later this year will lead to a CO2 increase a few months later, in which case there will be a larger downturn in annual CO2 change in 2021.

However, if the major cause of CO2 increase is fossil fuel consumption, there will be an extra large decrease in CO2 change in 2020 and 2021- and a noticeable jump if the global economy rebounds.”

The CO2 concentration number for August is now published: 412.55 p.p.m. (parts per million).  The seasonal drawdown of CO2 has begun, but CO2 concentration is still 2.61 ppm above the figure for August last year.  Figure 1 shows the 12 month change in CO2 at Mauna Loa since 2015-that is, January to January, February to February, March to March.

Fig. 1:  12 month change in CO2 concentration since 2015 to August 2020- Mauna Loa

Figure 2 is a monthly update for 2020 I will show as each month’s CO2 figures become available (and 2021 if necessary):

Fig. 2:  Updated 12 month changes in CO2 concentration for 2020- Mauna Loa

Figure 3 shows the 12 month change in CO2 concentration since the record began.

Fig. 3:  12 month change in CO2 concentration since 1958 to August 2020- Mauna Loa

Annual growth has been above zero since the mid 1970s, and has not been below 1 ppm since 2011. The annual rate of change is increasing, in other words CO2 concentration growth is accelerating.

Note that so far this year, 12 month changes continue to remain firmly in the normal or even upper range, and there is no sign of any slow down. And there won’t be!

This paper by J. Reid explains why.

http://blackjay.net/?p=1021%20%3Chttp://blackjay.net/?p=1021%3E

CO2 growth appears to be an entirely natural process.

Unless something dramatic happens, I don’t think I will continue this series any longer. There’s nothing to see.

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7 Responses to “CO2vid Watch: August”

  1. Garth Says:

    Hi Ken, thanks very much for this and for the link to the J. Reid paper. Have admired your clear charts from a distance for some time and felt a comment was due. You should be proud of your work. Cheers,

  2. trevor prowse Says:

    This paper by J. Reid explains why. http://blackjay.net/?p=1021%20%3Chttp:// blackjay.net/?p=1021%3E. CO2 growth appears to be an entirely natural process .This site seems to be banned—trevor

  3. ngard2016 Says:

    A very good summary by Jo Nova about the Coalition’s disappointing energy road map. But we should also remind people that the SH ( 50% of our planet’s surface area) is already a NET co2 SINK and the NH is the NET SOURCE, or about 93%. See this quote from the CSIRO site at Cape Grim.

    Population of the SH is about 0.8 bn and NH is now 7 bn people and entire SH emits about 7% of global emissions and OZ 1.1% and NZ just 0.1%. See Wiki link below for all countries and note graph top right, THEN LOOK at CHINA and OTHER COUNTRIES. Here’s the CSIRO link and quote.

    https://www.csiro.au/en/Research/OandA/Areas/Assessing-our-climate/Latest-greenhouse-gas-data

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions

    Seasonal variation

    “Carbon dioxide concentrations show seasonal variations (annual cycles) that vary according to global location and altitude. Several processes contribute to carbon dioxide annual cycles: for example, uptake and release of carbon dioxide by terrestrial plants and the oceans, and the transport of carbon dioxide around the globe from source regions (the Northern Hemisphere is a net source of carbon dioxide, the Southern Hemisphere a net sink)”.

    The Cape Grim baseline carbon dioxide data displayed show both the annual cycle and the long-term trend”.

  4. billinoz Says:

    Hi Ken, It may be time to give WordPress the flick. I was facing exactly this problem with all the sites managed by WordPress including here. And as a consequence I comment far less than I used to.

    For me Facebook is far less problematic. BOM Weather Watch which I set up last year is an example of this working OK.

    PS : I think you should persist with your monthly post on this issue. Comparing CO2 levels in the atmosphere with global economic activity. Global economic activity has fallen substantially.But CO2 levels continue to rise anyway.

    It shows that the whole CO2 global warming theory is not based on science.It’s based on scary myth !

    Cheers Bill

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