Covid in Context

With the recent surge in Covid-19, here is a progress report without the hype from the media, and without the commentary from those who doubt the impact of the disease.

I am attempting to show how Covid-19 compares with other major diseases in one important aspect: mortality.  How deadly is it?

I use data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics reports Provisional Mortality Statistics, Australia, Jan 2020 – Oct 2021 and Covid-19 Mortality, released 22 December 2021, and Our World in Data.  

To be certified as a Covid-19 fatality, Covid-19 must be the underlying cause of death- not dying of another condition while being positive for Covid.  According to Covid-19 Mortality, 71.2% of people dying from Covid had pre-existing chronic conditions.  The overall Case Fatality Rate (CFR) for Australia for COVID-19 as of 31 October 2021 was 1.0%, but while the CFR for those aged under 60 years was 0.1%, the CFR for males aged 90 years and over was close to 50%.   83% of people who died of Covid were over 70.  It is therefore a relatively mild disease for younger people, but very severe for elderly and sick Australians.

I shall now tease out mortality statistics to show Covid in context.

Figure 1 shows weekly death tallies of deaths in which doctors certified Covid as being the underlying cause of death, and from November weekly death tallies from Our World in Data.

Figure 1:  Weekly Covid Deaths from January 2020

Those who doubt the severity of Covid-19 often say that deaths from Covid are far less than from other causes.  Figure 2 shows total deaths for the past two years to October as well as the average from 2015-2019 (as 2020 was very unusual), together with Covid deaths.

Figure 2:  Covid-19 compared with all deaths per week

They have a point- to a point.  Weekly deaths from Covid in 2020 and 2021 were tiny in comparison, but in 2022 have risen to be a fifth of the average number for this time of year.  Breaking down the death toll to show separate diseases shows a different picture again.

Figure 3:  Covid-19 and other major diseases

Clearly, Covid’s weekly death toll is already greater than all other major killers except cancer, and may overtake cancer in another couple of weeks.  Thankfully we are close to the peak in eastern states.

Covid is a respiratory disease, but counted separately.  How does it compare with other respiratory diseases?  The next figure tracks Covid and total respiratory deaths, together with the average weekly deaths from respiratory illness from 2015 to 2019.

Figure 4:  Covid-19 and respiratory disease mortality

Covid already not only exceeds the weekly respiratory deaths for any time in the last two years (which had very little influenza), but also the highest average for 2015-2019.

I used to think Covid-19 was just another nasty infectious flu.  Not anymore.  Here’s a comparison of Covid deaths with deaths due to influenza leading to pneumonia.

Figure 5:  Covid-19 and influenza mortality

Already Covid-19 deaths are nine times the average for this time of year, and are also more than three times higher than the average in the peak of the winter flu season.

And WA has yet to open its border!

To compare mortality from diseases, the ABS calculates age-standardised death rates (SDRs) which “enable the comparison of death rates between populations with different age structures”.  Rates are calculated per 100,000 population.  Figure 2 shows death rates for the major diseases causing fatalities, including approximate (caution: not age- standardised) figures for Covid. 

Figure 6:  Death rates for Covid-19 and other major killers

Deaths will not stay at this high level for much longer.  There are signs we are close to the peak of new cases, and deaths will peak a week or two after that.  With Covid endemic in the community, mortality will fall to an unknown rate, and hospitalisations will become more easily manageable.

Make no mistake:  this is a deadly disease!  Take care!

Post Script: Here is another excellent resource:

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6 Responses to “Covid in Context”

  1. tonyryan43 Says:

    What I do not see here is deaths due to contraindicated venting and application of Remdesivir, which medical scientists have said causes patients (victims) to drown in their own fluids. They say that Remdesivir, highly profitable at, variously, $2300 to $3800 per course, shuts down all organs, commencing with the kidneys.

    I think Ken is naive about the application of medicine and motivation of the pharmaceutical and sickness industries.

    • kenskingdom Says:

      Not sure how you think I am naive about anything. I have been a skeptical analyst of data for years. I am as skeptical of pharmaceutical corporations as I am about government claims, as I am about conspiracy theories.

  2. Peter Newland Says:

    That’s a good case IFF the data is reliable. But can doctors, hospitals and nursing homes be relied upon to correctly report only death BY covid, rather than death WITH covid (or even without covid as in voluntary or involuntary euthanasia, or due to vaccination injury)? A nurse I know reports pressure to bias reports to whatever brings the highest government returns – they subsequently resigned rather than accepting coerced vaccination.

    Now I raised politically incorrect hot potato issues there to illustrate the risk that data may be corrupted by operatives with an agenda. That agenda could be to prove global warming, to make money, or to hide disposal of inconvenient bed occupiers.

    Fortunately, some data is more reliable and less prone to corruption than other data. So, instead of measuring ‘covid’ deaths, it would seem better to compare deaths from all causes, of the population as a whole, and for various age brackets etc, for previous non-covid months and years with the same statistics for covid months and years. If covid is really that bad, then it should show up as excess deaths.

    This has been done by an Aussie in the Philippines with Philippines data, where some interesting conclusions were drawn: even the highest covid deaths claimed were significantly lower than the excess deaths observed; the excess deaths correlated with vaccination timing rather than with covid cases and timing. Here’s a 34m video with graphs, sources and caveats:

    The make the comment that such data for Australia is not yet available, but I’m sure you could check that.

    So, are ‘covid deaths’ covid deaths or vaccination injury deaths?

    Independent UK & European data analysts (of the Ken type?) discovered that 5% of the mRNA vaccine batches were responsible for all the reported vaccination deaths. Further, they could rate particular batches as to how likely they were to cause deaths because there was a linear relationship to lethality of such batches. Most batches were fairly safe, but the very many outliers showed what they claim as “irrefutable evidence” that pharmaceutical companies were experimenting to see what step-wise doses (of something other than the nominal vaccination) had what lethality.

    Lethalities reported were far higher than could possible arise by chance from a faulty batch of what should be a very safe very controlled dose of a very pure pharmaceutical product. They concluded that this was “premeditated mass murder” by collusion between the 3 vaccination brands assessed. As a result, and with evidence of over a hundred top experts and lawyers, Reiner Fuelmich and colleagues plan a massive legal case to expose the issues and to bankrupt the companies involved and the billionaires who control them, much media, and WHO.

    A search will easily find Fuelmich – as well as claims that he is a conspiracy fraud. Fuelmich is the lawyer who won against VW for cheating on fuel consumption tests and who won against Deutsche Bank. However, that batch lethality data should be the key to who is telling the truth.

    Don’t forget that the media who knock Fuelmich also censor climate change data that doesn’t suit their narrative. They censor info about the cheap safe pharmaceutical products that greatly reduce the risk of catching, spreading and dying of covid – instead they promote lies that such treatments are dangerous and ineffective.

    Disclosure I’m 80, my wife and I both had covid and recovered in December 2021. We relied on cheap safe out-of-patent pharmaceutical products (banned by TGA for political, not medical, reasons) that ensured that when we caught covid it was not a big deal. Fatigue, headache and dry cough only problem. We are both unvaccinated via mRNA vaccines and intend to stay that way as natural immunity post recovery can’t be worse than 3 monthly boosters that allow catching, transmission and death from covid. We are not anti-vaxers in that we have had all other appropriate non-covid vaccinations.

    • kenskingdom Says:

      “can doctors, hospitals and nursing homes be relied upon to correctly report only death BY covid, rather than death WITH covid (or even without covid as in voluntary or involuntary euthanasia, or due to vaccination injury)?”
      In Australia death can only be certified by a doctor, and Covid is only registered as cause of death if it is the underlying cause, NOT if death results from another cause while being positive for Covid. Nurses do not certify death.
      “If covid is really that bad, then it should show up as excess deaths”
      Excess death was down in the last two years, and it is too early for ABS figures to see how the Omicron wave affects us. However Figures 2 to 6 show how current mortality compares with previous years including for all major diseases. Figure 2 shows it is currently at about 1/5 of the expected number of total deaths at this time of year. As more elderly and people with chronic conditions succumb now, there will be a decrease in death rates later this year.
      You will also note I did not mention vaccination at all in this post.

  3. Peter Newland Says:

    While you didn’t mention vaccination Ken, the reports from the Philippines (and widespread reports worldwide of vaccination injuries and deaths) indicate a strong correlation between vaccination and deaths, the 100+% EXCESS over normal deaths, and with the covid deaths reported, being way less than the excess deaths in the Philippines, indicates that vaccination that could easily be the real cause of excess deaths.
    The video link for this didn’t work so here it is again, it is working: so it’s a you tube dot com slash watch? v=G44 underscore underscore vGR7uw

    Also, your figures 3 and 6 seem to show a downward trend for recent months that correspond to the rise in claimed covid deaths. Soi how many covid deaths are actually cancer deaths etc? Plus of course the only current up to data is for covid, all other data being 3 months behind. So the Australian data looks as if it may support similar trends to what was reported in the Philippines.

    That should cause real concern over whether we can rely on ‘covid’ statistic that we are constantly bombarded with. So Perhaps there are other truths hidden in other death data that can be reliably inferred that should confirm or refute the official covid data.

    This possibility/probability of high vaccination deaths should not be ignored, especially considering the data showing that some batches of vaccines appear to indicate premeditated experimentation on an unsuspecting public. While the Reiner Fuelmich claims may seem outrageous, surely a very successful Lawyer like him would not make public accusations of “premeditated mass murder” unless he was confident that he had strong evidence to protect him from being sued for libel and slander of the mega rich people he explicitly names.

    You have the skills to check out the Philippines claims as well as to check out the Fuelmich data claims which indicate serious issues. So please don’t dismiss it prematurely.

    How can Doctors reports be considered reliable when most doctors in the West work in an environment where they are forbidden from giving their patients relevant information to allow them to make an informed choice? They are not permitted to suggest prophylactic treatment, or early treatment, using Hydroxychoroquine and Ivermectin. This is despite mountains of evidence (at & re their safety and efficacy against covid. The evidence show early use of hcd &/or ivm would greatly reduce infections, transmission, hospitalisation and deaths. So their use would have obviated any need for lockdowns etc and saved Australia billions in vaccination costs, billions in economic loss, thousands of job losses, and suicides. However the pharmaceutical industry would have to forgo tens of billions of profits. So good conscientious doctors may avoid biting the hand that feeds them because they have families to feed.

    Ken, please make the time to look into this. That’s your forte. Mine is election theory and electoral reform to ensure a fair system actually elects the Senators the voters voted for, rather than the current shambles where about 5 to 15 of our 76 Senators weren’t collectively approved by voters.

  4. kenskingdom Says:

    Bill can’t get through wordpress controls- here’s his comment:

    Hi Ken

    WordPress continues to lock out of commenting on your posts. I’ve come to the conclusion it’s ***** system of sharing information & discussion.

    Si here below is my lengthy comment of your post.


    Hi Ken, I am surprised but pleased & grateful that you have turned your skill at analysing statistics to the Cover pandemic.

    It’s clear that the political actions by our governments taken early in 2020 had a major impact on lessoning Covid deaths in Australia. Those key actions were 1 : closing the international & state borders and 2 Initiating lockdowns as needed to eliminate the Covid virus within the Australian jurisdictions.

    But in recent months our state & Commonwealth governments ( except for the WA State government ) have abandoned those two successful strategies. Now we are all expected to be vaccinated and boostered, wear masks all the time and conduct our lives in a social distanced way and not do any of our normal social activities which might lead to the virus being spread.

    But of course the vaccinations wear off after 4-6 months ! And they do not prevent me from becoming infected with Covid and passing it on to my friends & family. Further our governments having chosen vaccines as the way of salvation have also decided to ignore any evidence ( and deny ) that there are other ways to prevent infection and to deal successfully with Covid if infected.

    The result to be blunt has been a disaster. Your charts clearly show the huge rise of deaths from Covid – mostly from he Omicron virus which supposedly is less virulent

    Here in South Australia, I have come to the conclusion that our Premier Stevo Dumbo Marshall is responsible for releasing this Cover plague in our state. It’s not just deaths & hospitalisations. Our local economy & businesses went through a major collapse over the Xmas & school holidays. And that awareness has generated huge anger here.People are livid.

    In March we will have a state election & have the opportunity to put the steel capped electoral boot right up his backside and wave him goodbye into political oblivion. I think that ‘Scumbo’ Morrison face a similar fate in May.

    I don’t have any hope of labor being much better ! But maybe having seen the Liberal party put through the political guillotine, they will act with more wisdom

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