What are the likely prospects for electricity supply in 2023? In a nut shell, much higher prices, but we may avoid blackouts-just.
In April, Liddell coal fired power station will close. Data from OpenNEM shows an extra 2,827 MW of wind and 1,895 MW of solar farm capacity will come on line during the year, and as well rooftop solar will continue to grow rapidly. There will be an extra 154 MW of gas generation at Snapper Point in South Australia. There will be no change to hydro capacity. Figure 1 shows the changes in installed capacity from 2022 to 2023.
Figure 1: Installed Capacity
Across the National Electricity Market, generation and consumption are virtually the same (hydro pumping and battery charging accounts for much less than 1 percent.) Over 24 hours, daily consumption in Gigawatt hours in 2022 is shown in Figure 2.
Figure 2: Daily Electricity Consumption
Capacity factor is actual generation as a percentage of installed capacity.
Figure 3: Daily Capacity Factor
Note that in optimum conditions wind has a capacity factor almost as high as coal; low wind results in capacity factor dropping to 7.6 %. On average wind’s capacity factor is 34.9 %. Wind generation varies, and is mostly greater at night.
While there is a massive amount of solar generation each day, depending on cloud conditions, after sundown solar energy is virtually zero. At the early morning and early evening peaks, and all through every night, the amount of daily solar generation is irrelevant, and the nation relies on coal, gas, hydro, and whatever wind is available. When wind energy is very low, fossil fuels and hydro have to increase generation.
In Figure 4, projected consumption for 2023 is calculated from 2022 average capacity factors and 2023 installed capacity.
Figure 4: Projected 2023 Daily Consumption
Assuming there is no increase in demand in 2023- in other words, no population increase, no new electric vehicles or other gadgets, no economic growth- we can directly compare 2022 consumption with 2023. It is likely that the economy will slow, which might be the only thing to save the NEM. Here are three scenarios for 2023 after Liddell closes.
Figure 5: Third Worst Case
If we have a year with winds similar to last, on average there will be 6.8 GWhr less electricity per day. In 2022 there were 197 days when wind generation was below average. Of course, coal, gas, and hydro will easily increase generation to cover this shortfall, but at greater cost than 2022.
But that is the average day. We need to look at hour by hour demand and generation during each day.
Figure 6 is a plot of electricity supply by source for 30 minute periods for the week of 29 May to 3 June 2022.
Figure 6: Electricity Generation 29 May to 5 June 2022
Battery, biofuel, and diesel generation are not shown as they are tiny. Note the morning and evening peaks, the early morning base of about 19,000 Megawatts, and the daily solar curve, which decreases to virtually zero at local sundown.
Figure 7 shows the above data just for 2nd June.
Figure 7: Electricity Generation 2 June 2022
I am interested in electricity supply at 6.00 p.m. (the down arrow) as this is close to the daily peak. At 6.00 p.m. solar was irrelevant; and wind generation was extremely low all day- but wind generation can be much lower. In 2022 there were 18 days with less wind generation than that.
What if similar conditions occur in June 2023?
In the next figure I assume identical weather conditions- temperature, cloud, rain, and wind- and use the planned capacity increases for gas and wind, and the decrease for coal, to estimate generation for a similar day in 2023.
Figure 8: Second Worst Case- similar conditions to June 2022
773 MW short. Coal is already at its maximum output for the year. The shortfall can only come from hydro and gas. Gas can generate an extra 320 MW or so to equal the maximum for the year, and of course can go beyond this (theoretically, but impossible, an extra 4,255 MW to maximum installed capacity); hydro can contribute extra (theoretically, but impossible, an extra 3,454 MW to maximum installed capacity) – but there is a physical limit. This will drive prices even higher.
Which brings us to the Worst Case Scenario:
Worst Case: less wind than 2022 at peak times and anything less than maximum coal, gas, and hydro generation.
After April, electricity supply will be tight. If the wind blows strongly enough, we will be able to manage. Wind must be able to produce at least 1,100 MW every hour at peak times. However, the wind is unlikely to co-operate. Therefore, we will have higher prices.
But to avoid blackouts:
Coal generators must produce at or above the 2022 maximum capacity factor, with minimal planned stoppages and no unplanned breakdowns.
Gas generators will have to increase supply- this will of course result in higher prices.
Hydro dams will have to stay full, with no droughts or floods.
Good luck with that.
(Source: OpenNEM)
Tags: Australia, Electricity, Energy, NEM
kenskingdom 
January 17, 2023 at 7:33 pm |
Ha- buit you must have read teh press about increased invstement daemand in Baterries- that shodul solve it. chuckle cuhcukle