Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

Spring-Summer Rain Outlook Update- 20 September 2012

September 20, 2012

This page will be regularly updated, as soon as I have enough RAINFALL and minimum temperature data.

This series of posts is a continuing public testing and refining of my hunch that surges in minimum anomalies indicate later upper level disturbances.   Since September last year my success rate is 80%.

Progress:

On September 5 I tipped for September 18 +/- 7 days, “Possibly an upper level system- Possible storm activity; probably only light rain.”

Exactly right.  I could have narrowed it down to +/- 2 days.

This is how we went:

Outlook:

SOI 30 day mean is 3.5.

NINO 3.4 Index for August was + 0.73 and rising.

The Indian Ocean Dipole is currently +0.48 and falling.

We are looking at a weak El Nino, with a positive IOD, so conditions will be generally dry in spring before returning to normal summer conditions.   Alternatively, we could be in for an early and heavier Wet, and a return to La Nina next year- I will discuss this possibility in a future post.  I’m not so sure about January now: earlier I thought it would be hot and dry but I will have to wait until further into the season.  Normal or above wet season rains are likely in early February.

For Central and Southern Queensland indications for the next 5 months are:

Commencement period Description Likely result
September  28 +/- 3 days,   linking to:- Possibly an upper level system Possible storms
October 3 +/- 7 days

October 18 +/- 3 days?

October 30 +/- 3 days

Upper system likely to start

Possible disturbance

“ “

Possible storm activity
November 13 +/- 10 days

Possibly November 26?

Enhanced weather activity to begin in this period Possible storms.  This may last   to early December.
December 4 +/- 4 days Possible upper system Possible storms
December 20 +/- 8 days (13-28 December)

December 26 +/- 2 days

Indications of a stronger system

Possible extra influence

Possible heavier storms or rain starting in this period, possibly   lasting past Xmas.
January- possible 13 +/- 3 days? 22 +/- 2 days?

Late January- February (in the region 28 January-onwards)

 

 

Probable upper system enhancing wet season begins in this period

Possible early storms?

 

Widespread rain, amount unknown (no-brainer- this is the wet season)

Here’s a graphical representation of when I expect upper level disturbances for the rest of this year. 

I will monitor conditions and refine my predictions as the season develops.

30 day mean Minimum percentage anomaly for the 10 Subtropical Queensland sites I monitor as at 20 September (almost the equinox) was -0.39.

Acorn or A Con: Acorn’s Daily Adjustments

June 23, 2012

Ken Stewart, June 2012

Comments on Jo Nova’s site, especially from Richard of NZ, indicate a need for the public to see samples of the daily adjustments made by the authors of ACORN-SAT.  So here they are.  All are for minima.

Please note: In this post I am not claiming that Acorn only cools past temperatures and warms recent ones.  On the contrary, there are many examples of the opposite, e.g. Tennant Creek.  There is a predominance of early cooling.  However in this post I am looking at the actual adjustments.

First, Alice Springs.  Here is a table showing 1943, when there was overlap between the old Post Office observations and the new airfield built for the war effort.  Note that Acorn bears little resemblance to either of the raw data records.

Yr

Month

Day

Old

Air

Acorn

Diff old

Diff air

1943

9

1

1.1

2.6

0.6

-0.5

-2

1943

9

2

2.8

3.8

2.2

-0.6

-1.6

1943

9

3

5

7

3.7

-1.3

-3.3

1943

9

4

5.6

5.1

4.7

-0.9

-0.4

1943

9

5

4.4

3.8

3.1

-1.3

-0.7

1943

9

6

2.8

3.7

2.2

-0.6

-1.5

1943

9

7

2.2

5.7

1.3

-0.9

-4.4

1943

9

8

2.8

6

2.2

-0.6

-3.8

1943

9

9

8.9

12.6

7.4

-1.5

-5.2

1943

9

10

10.6

13.3

9.8

-0.8

-3.5

1943

9

11

11.7

11.3

10.3

-1.4

-1

1943

9

12

8.9

8.7

7.4

-1.5

-1.3

1943

9

13

8.9

14.9

7.4

-1.5

-7.5

1943

9

14

14.4

12.6

13.4

-1

0.8

1943

9

15

8.9

5.7

7.4

-1.5

1.7

1943

9

16

14.4

14.4

13.4

-1

-1

1943

9

17

11.7

7.9

10.3

-1.4

2.4

1943

9

18

9.4

7.8

8

-1.4

0.2

1943

9

19

9.4

12.1

8

-1.4

-4.1

1943

9

20

17.2

17.3

15.7

-1.5

-1.6

1943

9

21

18.3

21.4

13.8

-4.5

-7.6

1943

9

22

12.2

12.1

10.3

-1.9

-1.8

1943

9

23

8.9

7.4

7.4

-1.5

0

1943

9

24

12.2

9.1

10.3

-1.9

1.2

1943

9

25

13.9

9.7

13.5

-0.4

3.8

1943

9

26

8.3

13.4

7.2

-1.1

-6.2

1943

9

27

7.2

8.7

5.9

-1.3

-2.8

1943

9

28

7.8

10.9

6.5

-1.3

-4.4

1943

9

29

6.7

7.7

5.6

-1.1

-2.1

1943

9

30

7.2

3.6

5.9

-1.3

2.3

1943

10

1

9.4

3.8

     

1943

10

2

5

5.7

     

1943

10

3

6.1

7.8

     

1943

10

4

5

8.5

     

1943

10

5

5.6

9

     

1943

10

6

8.3

7.9

     

1943

10

7

9.4

10.8

     

1943

10

8

13.9

17.2

     

1943

10

9

14.4

16.9

     

1943

10

10

15

16.3

     

1943

10

11

15

21.6

     

1943

10

12

13.3

16.3

     

1943

10

13

11.7

18.7

     

1943

10

14

11.1

17.1

     

1943

10

15

12.8

16.7

     

1943

10

16

11.7

17.1

     

1943

10

17

11.7

18.9

     

1943

10

18

12.2

17.7

     

1943

10

19

15

20.3

     

1943

10

20

15.6

20.1

     

1943

10

21

14.4

20.7

     

1943

10

22

12.2

20.7

     

1943

10

23

11.7

16.7

     

1943

10

24

12.2

13.3

     

1943

10

25

12.2

15.5

     

1943

10

26

15

15.3

     

1943

10

27

15

15.2

     

1943

10

28

15

16.2

     

1943

10

29

7.8

10.2

     

1943

10

30

12.2

15.6

     

1943

10

31

12.2

18.8

     

1943

11

1

12.2

20.4

     

1943

11

2

17.2

19.4

18.5

1.3

-0.9

1943

11

3

12.2

12.2

13.4

1.2

1.2

1943

11

4

12.2

10.7

13.4

1.2

2.7

1943

11

5

11.7

10.4

11.8

0.1

1.4

1943

11

6

12.8

12.7

13.6

0.8

0.9

1943

11

7

11.1

9.5

9.8

-1.3

0.3

1943

11

8

11.1

10.4

9.8

-1.3

-0.6

1943

11

9

10.6

11.3

9.2

-1.4

-2.1

1943

11

10

11.1

14.8

9.8

-1.3

-5

1943

11

11

12.2

13.6

13.4

1.2

-0.2

1943

11

12

15.6

14.9

15.2

-0.4

0.3

1943

11

13

12.8

14.6

13.6

0.8

-1

1943

11

14

15

14.4

15.2

0.2

0.8

1943

11

15

18.9

20

19.1

0.2

-0.9

What happened to October?

Here’s April and May 1931, just before a site shift in 1932.  Note the average adjustment for these two months is -2.8 degrees, with two days adjusted down by 8 degrees, and not accidentally.

Yr

Month

Day

PO

Acorn

Diff air

365d av PO

Acorn

365d diff

1931

4

1

23.3

20.5

-2.8

13.5

12.0

-1.5

1931

4

2

19.2

15.3

-3.9

13.5

12.0

-1.5

1931

4

3

11.4

9.3

-2.1

13.5

12.0

-1.5

1931

4

4

8.3

5.9

-2.4

13.5

12.0

-1.5

1931

4

5

8.3

5.9

-2.4

13.5

12.0

-1.5

1931

4

6

8.3

5.9

-2.4

13.5

12.0

-1.5

1931

4

7

10.6

9.1

-1.5

13.5

12.0

-1.5

1931

4

8

10.3

8.3

-2

13.5

12.0

-1.5

1931

4

9

10.6

9.1

-1.5

13.5

12.0

-1.5

1931

4

10

7.2

5.3

-1.9

13.5

12.0

-1.5

1931

4

11

9.4

7.7

-1.7

13.4

12.0

-1.5

1931

4

12

17.5

14.8

-2.7

13.5

12.0

-1.5

1931

4

13

20.6

17.4

-3.2

13.5

12.0

-1.5

1931

4

14

18.3

14.5

-3.8

13.5

12.1

-1.5

1931

4

15

14.6

12.4

-2.2

13.5

12.1

-1.5

1931

4

16

13.3

10

-3.3

13.5

12.1

-1.5

1931

4

17

10.6

9.1

-1.5

13.5

12.1

-1.5

1931

4

18

8.9

6.5

-2.4

13.5

12.1

-1.5

1931

4

19

11.7

9.4

-2.3

13.5

12.1

-1.5

1931

4

20

13.3

10

-3.3

13.5

12.1

-1.5

1931

4

21

10.7

9.1

-1.6

13.5

12.0

-1.5

1931

4

22

7.8

5.6

-2.2

13.5

12.0

-1.4

1931

4

23

8.9

6.5

-2.4

13.4

12.0

-1.4

1931

4

24

8.1

5.9

-2.2

13.4

11.9

-1.4

1931

4

25

7.8

5.6

-2.2

13.4

11.9

-1.4

1931

4

26

8.9

6.5

-2.4

13.4

11.9

-1.4

1931

4

27

10

8.3

-1.7

13.4

11.9

-1.4

1931

4

28

18

14.4

-3.6

13.4

11.9

-1.4

1931

4

29

10.6

9.1

-1.5

13.4

11.9

-1.4

1931

4

30

10.6

9.1

-1.5

13.4

11.9

-1.4

1931

5

1

8.1

5.8

-2.3

13.3

11.9

-1.4

1931

5

2

8.5

6.1

-2.4

13.3

11.9

-1.4

1931

5

3

8.4

6.1

-2.3

13.3

11.9

-1.4

1931

5

4

10.6

8.5

-2.1

13.3

11.9

-1.4

1931

5

5

17.7

9.7

-8

13.3

11.9

-1.5

1931

5

6

18.3

10.3

-8

13.3

11.9

-1.5

1931

5

7

12.2

8.8

-3.4

13.3

11.9

-1.5

1931

5

8

11.4

8.8

-2.6

13.4

11.9

-1.5

1931

5

9

11.7

8.8

-2.9

13.4

11.9

-1.5

1931

5

10

16.1

11.3

-4.8

13.4

11.9

-1.5

1931

5

11

21.7

14.8

-6.9

13.4

11.9

-1.5

1931

5

12

23.3

16.4

-6.9

13.4

11.9

-1.5

1931

5

13

20.6

13.7

-6.9

13.5

12.0

-1.5

1931

5

14

10.2

8.1

-2.1

13.5

12.0

-1.5

1931

5

15

3.9

1.9

-2

13.5

12.0

-1.5

1931

5

16

8.8

6.6

-2.2

13.5

12.0

-1.5

1931

5

17

11.1

8.8

-2.3

13.5

12.0

-1.5

1931

5

18

9.4

6.7

-2.7

13.5

12.0

-1.5

1931

5

19

12.2

8.8

-3.4

13.6

12.0

-1.5

1931

5

20

9.4

6.7

-2.7

13.6

12.0

-1.5

1931

5

21

11.7

8.8

-2.9

13.6

12.1

-1.5

1931

5

22

14.4

11

-3.4

13.6

12.1

-1.5

1931

5

23

10.6

8.5

-2.1

13.6

12.1

-1.5

1931

5

24

10

7.4

-2.6

13.7

12.1

-1.5

1931

5

25

9.4

6.7

-2.7

13.7

12.1

-1.5

1931

5

26

7.8

5.8

-2

13.7

12.1

-1.6

1931

5

27

5.1

3.4

-1.7

13.7

12.1

-1.6

1931

5

28

5.3

3.5

-1.8

13.7

12.1

-1.6

1931

5

29

2.2

0.6

-1.6

13.7

12.1

-1.6

1931

5

30

2.8

1

-1.8

13.6

12.1

-1.6

1931

5

31

6.2

5.7

-0.5

13.6

12.1

-1.5

    Avg

11.4

8.6

-2.8

     

 

Now here is December 2004, when the adjustments end.  Note the 365 day running means show there is a 0.8 degree adjustment on average.  (Don’t be confused by the difference- numbers are rounded to one decimal place.)  Note the sudden change from a large adjustment to no adjustment on 1 January 2005.  Happy New Year Richard!  Your comments at Jo Nova are spot on!

Yr Month Day Air Acorn Diff air   365d av air Acorn 365d diff
2004 12 1 23.3 23.9 0.6   14.9 14.1 0.8
2004 12 2 11.5 12.7 1.2   14.9 14.1 0.8
2004 12 3 13 14.2 1.2   14.9 14.0 0.8
2004 12 4 20.4 20.9 0.5   14.9 14.0 0.8
2004 12 5 21.1 21.7 0.6   14.9 14.0 0.8
2004 12 6 20.6 21.1 0.5   14.9 14.1 0.8
2004 12 7 20.4 20.9 0.5   14.9 14.0 0.8
2004 12 8 15.3 16.1 0.8   14.8 14.0 0.8
2004 12 9 12.9 14.1 1.2   14.8 14.0 0.8
2004 12 10 16.5 17.5 1   14.8 14.0 0.8
2004 12 11 16.5 17.5 1   14.8 14.0 0.8
2004 12 12 17.8 18.9 1.1   14.8 14.0 0.8
2004 12 13 19.5 20.2 0.7   14.8 14.0 0.8
2004 12 14 26.1 26.8 0.7   14.8 14.0 0.8
2004 12 15 17.7 18.9 1.2   14.8 13.9 0.8
2004 12 16 21.9 22.6 0.7   14.8 13.9 0.8
2004 12 17 16.6 17.7 1.1   14.7 13.9 0.8
2004 12 18 18.8 19.8 1   14.7 13.9 0.8
2004 12 19 24.7 25.6 0.9   14.7 13.9 0.8
2004 12 20 20.9 21.4 0.5   14.7 13.9 0.8
2004 12 21 21.2 21.8 0.6   14.7 13.9 0.8
2004 12 22 22.9 23.6 0.7   14.7 13.9 0.8
2004 12 23 23 23.7 0.7   14.7 13.9 0.8
2004 12 24 20.7 21.1 0.4   14.7 13.9 0.8
2004 12 25 24.8 25.7 0.9   14.7 13.9 0.8
2004 12 26 19 20 1   14.7 13.9 0.8
2004 12 27 24.6 25.3 0.7   14.7 13.9 0.8
2004 12 28 24.2 24.9 0.7   14.7 13.9 0.8
2004 12 29 20.7 21.1 0.4   14.7 13.9 0.8
2004 12 30 12.7 13.9 1.2   14.7 13.8 0.8
2004 12 31 15.8 16.7 0.9        
2005 1 1 19.4 19.4 0        
2005 1 2 29.8 29.8 0        
2005 1 3 24.9 24.9 0        
2005 1 4 21.5 21.5 0        
2005 1 5 16 16 0        
2005 1 6 14.1 14.1 0        
2005 1 7 15 15 0        
2005 1 8 15.7 15.7 0        
2005 1 9 12.8 12.8 0        
2005 1 10 14.8 14.8 0        

 

Now Rutherglen.  First, winter 1913, when the largest cooling adjustments were made.

Year Month Day Rutherglen Acorn diff

1913

6

1

3.1

2.2

-0.9

1913

6

2

6.1

4.5

-1.6

1913

6

3

10.6

   

1913

6

4

4.7

3.5

-1.2

1913

6

5

-2.5

-3.7

-1.2

1913

6

6

-2.2

-3.3

-1.1

1913

6

7

-3.1

-4.9

-1.8

1913

6

8

-1.9

-3

-1.1

1913

6

9

-2.5

-3.7

-1.2

1913

6

10

-3.3

-5.5

-2.2

1913

6

11

-3.3

-5.5

-2.2

1913

6

12

-3.3

-5.5

-2.2

1913

6

13

-2.2

-3.3

-1.1

1913

6

14

-1.1

-2.1

-1

1913

6

15

1.1

0.1

-1

1913

6

16

0.3

-1

-1.3

1913

6

17

3.9

2.8

-1.1

1913

6

18

-2.8

-4.4

-1.6

1913

6

19

2.2

1.5

-0.7

1913

6

20

3.9

2.8

-1.1

1913

6

21

-1.4

-2.6

-1.2

1913

6

22

1.1

0.1

-1

1913

6

23

6.7

5.1

-1.6

1913

6

24

8.9

6.3

-2.6

1913

6

25

8.9

6.3

-2.6

1913

6

26

2.2

1.5

-0.7

1913

6

27

-1.9

-3

-1.1

1913

6

28

-2.2

-3.3

-1.1

1913

6

29

-1.1

-2.1

-1

1913

6

30

3.9

2.8

-1.1

1913

7

1

1.7

1.1

-0.6

1913

7

2

0.6

-0.3

-0.9

1913

7

3

-3.1

-5.4

-2.3

1913

7

4

-4.2

-6.7

-2.5

1913

7

5

4.4

3

-1.4

1913

7

6

4.4

3

-1.4

1913

7

7

1.9

1.2

-0.7

1913

7

8

2.2

1.4

-0.8

1913

7

9

-1.1

-2.7

-1.6

1913

7

10

-3.9

-6.4

-2.5

1913

7

11

-1.4

-3.1

-1.7

1913

7

12

2.2

1.4

-0.8

1913

7

13

3.6

2.5

-1.1

1913

7

14

1.9

1.2

-0.7

1913

7

15

5

3.5

-1.5

1913

7

16

7.2

5.3

-1.9

1913

7

17

4.7

3.2

-1.5

1913

7

18

6.9

5.1

-1.8

1913

7

19

6.9

5.1

-1.8

1913

7

20

3.9

2.7

-1.2

1913

7

21

3.9

2.7

-1.2

1913

7

22

-1.7

-3.3

-1.6

1913

7

23

-2.6

-4.5

-1.9

1913

7

24

-2.4

-4.4

-2

1913

7

25

-3.9

-6.4

-2.5

1913

7

26

-2.1

-3.9

-1.8

1913

7

27

1.5

0.9

-0.6

1913

7

28

3.3

2.2

-1.1

1913

7

29

3.4

2.4

-1

1913

7

30

7.3

5.5

-1.8

1913

7

31

8.3

6.7

-1.6

    AVERAGE

1.50

-0.07

-1.42

 

Now 1973, when the adjustments end.  Note the 365 day average shows an adjustment of -0.5, which ends suddenly on New Year’s Day again.

Year Month Day Rutherglen Acorn diff 365d av Acorn 365d diff

1973

11

1

10.5

9.9

-0.6

8.5

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

2

9.5

9.1

-0.4

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

3

6

5.6

-0.4

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

4

10

9.4

-0.6

8.5

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

5

10

9.4

-0.6

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

6

     

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

7

5.5

   

8.5

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

8

7

6.8

-0.2

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

9

12

11.9

-0.1

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

10

15.5

14.9

-0.6

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

11

7

6.8

-0.2

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

12

8.5

7.6

-0.9

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

13

6.5

6

-0.5

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

14

5

4.7

-0.3

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

15

6.5

6

-0.5

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

16

5

4.7

-0.3

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

17

7.5

7

-0.5

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

18

13

12.6

-0.4

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

19

12

11.9

-0.1

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

20

19.5

19

-0.5

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

21

5.5

5.2

-0.3

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

22

5

4.7

-0.3

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

23

6

5.6

-0.4

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

24

7.6

7.1

-0.5

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

25

8.5

7.6

-0.9

8.6

8.0

-0.5

1973

11

26

9.5

9.1

-0.4

8.6

8.0

-0.5

1973

11

27

13.5

13

-0.5

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

28

12.5

12.2

-0.3

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

29

10

9.4

-0.6

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

11

30

10

9.4

-0.6

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

12

1

10

9.4

-0.6

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

12

2

21

20.5

-0.5

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

12

3

10.5

9.7

-0.8

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

12

4

11

10.1

-0.9

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

12

5

6

5.4

-0.6

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

12

6

7

6.3

-0.7

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

12

7

11

10.1

-0.9

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

12

8

10

9.4

-0.6

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

12

9

10

9.4

-0.6

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

12

10

14

13.2

-0.8

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

12

11

19

18.3

-0.7

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

12

12

16.5

15.9

-0.6

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

12

13

16

15.4

-0.6

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

12

14

21

20.5

-0.5

8.7

8.1

-0.5

1973

12

15

18

16.9

-1.1

8.7

8.1

-0.5

1973

12

16

15

14.4

-0.6

8.7

8.1

-0.5

1973

12

17

8.5

8

-0.5

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

12

18

11

10.1

-0.9

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

12

19

9

8.5

-0.5

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

12

20

11.5

10.9

-0.6

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

12

21

17.5

16.8

-0.7

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

12

22

9

8.5

-0.5

8.6

8.1

-0.5

1973

12

23

5.4

4.8

-0.6

8.5

8.0

-0.5

1973

12

24

7

6.3

-0.7

8.5

8.0

-0.5

1973

12

25

13.8

13.1

-0.7

8.5

8.0

-0.5

1973

12

26

7.5

6.9

-0.6

8.5

8.0

-0.5

1973

12

27

10.5

9.7

-0.8

8.5

8.0

-0.5

1973

12

28

15.5

14.8

-0.7

8.5

8.0

-0.5

1973

12

29

14

13.2

-0.8

8.5

8.0

-0.5

1973

12

30

18

16.9

-1.1

8.5

8.0

-0.5

1973

12

31

10

9.4

-0.6

8.5

8.0

-0.5

1974

1

1

10

10

0

     

1974

1

2

10.5

10.5

0

     

1974

1

3

15

15

0

     

1974

1

4

20

20

0

     

1974

1

5

17.5

17.5

0

     

1974

1

6

12

12

0

     

1974

1

7

14.5

14.5

0

     

1974

1

8

12.3

12.3

0

     

1974

1

9

12.5

12.5

0

     

1974

1

10

18.3

18.3

0

     

1974

1

11

17.7

17.7

0

     
                 
    AVERAGE

10.81

10.33

-0.57

     

 

Finally, Brisbane Aero.  A commenter claimed the 1960s were very cold in Brisbane, and it is much warmer now.  Note what Acorn has done to the data. 

The raw data consists of the old Regional Office data, which appears affected by UHI, and the Old Airport (Eagle Farm), which is several kilometres closer to Moreton Bay.  The new Aero site is several kilometres closer to the Bay again.

 

Year

Mon

Day

RO

Air old

Acorn

diff

 

RO 365d

Old

Acorn

 

old diff

1964

6

1

13.6

13.5

13.7

0.2

 

15.7

15.6

14.7

 

-1.0

1964

6

2

9.4

9.3

7.3

-2

 

15.7

15.6

14.7

 

-1.0

1964

6

3

12.9

12.8

12.5

-0.3

 

15.7

15.6

14.7

 

-1.0

1964

6

4

13.4

13.6

13.7

0.1

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

6

5

10.9

11

9.7

-1.3

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

6

6

12.8

13.5

13.7

0.2

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

6

7

13.7

12.3

11.5

-0.8

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

6

8

14.1

14.3

14.7

0.4

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

6

9

11.7

12.1

11.1

-1

 

15.7

15.6

14.7

 

-1.0

1964

6

10

11.4

11.5

10.2

-1.3

 

15.7

15.6

14.7

 

-1.0

1964

6

11

9.6

7.9

5.1

-2.8

 

15.7

15.6

14.7

 

-1.0

1964

6

12

11.1

9.4

7.4

-2

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

6

13

13.4

12

11

-1

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

6

14

8.6

8.7

6.1

-2.6

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

6

15

8.8

9.6

7.9

-1.7

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

6

16

8.4

9.4

7.4

-2

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

6

17

8

8.8

6.4

-2.4

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

6

18

11.3

11.2

9.9

-1.3

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

6

19

13.9

13.9

14.1

0.2

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

6

20

13.1

11.6

10.5

-1.1

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

6

21

10.7

7.8

5

-2.8

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

6

22

9.9

8.3

5.3

-3

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

6

23

9.6

8.7

6.1

-2.6

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

6

24

11.6

8.9

6.7

-2.2

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

6

25

7.4

7.8

5

-2.8

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

6

26

9.7

9.8

8.2

-1.6

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

6

27

9.1

8.7

6.1

-2.6

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

6

28

5.5

6.2

3

-3.2

 

15.7

15.6

14.5

 

-1.0

1964

6

29

7.7

8.3

5.3

-3

 

15.7

15.5

14.5

 

-1.0

1964

6

30

11.8

11.7

10.5

-1.2

 

15.7

15.5

14.5

 

-1.0

1964

7

1

11.7

11.3

10.8

-0.5

 

15.7

15.5

14.5

 

-1.0

1964

7

2

13.9

13.3

14

0.7

 

15.7

15.6

14.5

 

-1.0

1964

7

3

15.6

15.7

16.2

0.5

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

7

4

10.8

10.4

9.2

-1.2

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

7

5

6.3

4.4

0.5

-3.9

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

7

6

5.5

6.2

2.5

-3.7

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

7

7

8.7

8.8

7.4

-1.4

 

15.7

15.6

14.5

 

-1.0

1964

7

8

6.3

7.3

4.9

-2.4

 

15.7

15.6

14.5

 

-1.0

1964

7

9

6.3

7.1

4.6

-2.5

 

15.7

15.6

14.5

 

-1.0

1964

7

10

8.8

8.9

7.4

-1.5

 

15.7

15.6

14.5

 

-1.0

1964

7

11

11.5

12.1

12.1

0

 

15.7

15.6

14.5

 

-1.0

1964

7

12

12.5

9.2

7.8

-1.4

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

7

13

16.7

15.1

15.6

0.5

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

7

14

17.4

14.4

14.9

0.5

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

7

15

11.3

10.9

10

-0.9

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

7

16

10.2

8.9

7.4

-1.5

 

15.8

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

7

17

11.7

11.7

11.5

-0.2

 

15.8

15.6

14.7

 

-1.0

1964

7

18

13.5

13.6

14.2

0.6

 

15.8

15.7

14.7

 

-1.0

1964

7

19

10.3

8.9

7.4

-1.5

 

15.8

15.7

14.7

 

-1.0

1964

7

20

12

12.2

12.2

0

 

15.8

15.7

14.7

 

-1.0

1964

7

21

8.9

6.5

2.7

-3.8

 

15.8

15.7

14.8

 

-1.0

1964

7

22

7.6

5.8

2.2

-3.6

 

15.8

15.7

14.7

 

-1.0

1964

7

23

6.7

5.6

1.9

-3.7

 

15.8

15.7

14.7

 

-1.0

1964

7

24

4.9

5.6

1.9

-3.7

 

15.8

15.7

14.7

 

-1.0

1964

7

25

6.4

6.8

3.2

-3.6

 

15.8

15.7

14.7

 

-1.0

1964

7

26

9.1

8.7

6.8

-1.9

 

15.8

15.7

14.7

 

-1.0

1964

7

27

8.4

8.7

6.8

-1.9

 

15.8

15.7

14.7

 

-1.0

1964

7

28

8.8

9.4

7.9

-1.5

 

15.8

15.7

14.7

 

-1.0

1964

7

29

10.2

10.5

9.6

-0.9

 

15.8

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

7

30

10.2

9.9

8.6

-1.3

 

15.8

15.7

14.7

 

-1.0

1964

7

31

9.7

10.4

9.2

-1.2

 

15.8

15.7

14.7

 

-1.0

1964

8

1

11.5

11.1

9.8

-1.3

 

15.8

15.7

14.7

 

-1.0

1964

8

2

7.3

6.7

3.3

-3.4

 

15.8

15.7

14.7

 

-1.0

1964

8

3

7.7

7.8

5.3

-2.5

 

15.8

15.7

14.7

 

-1.0

1964

8

4

10.8

7.7

5

-2.7

 

15.8

15.7

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

8

5

9.6

6.3

2.9

-3.4

 

15.8

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

8

6

12.6

11

9.6

-1.4

 

15.8

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

8

7

11.7

12.5

12.5

0

 

15.8

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

8

8

8.7

9.2

7.2

-2

 

15.8

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

8

9

8.7

8.2

5.5

-2.7

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

8

10

5.9

5.4

2

-3.4

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

8

11

10.2

9.5

8

-1.5

 

15.7

15.6

14.6

 

-1.0

1964

8

12

8.6

7.3

4

-3.3

 

15.7

15.6

14.5

 

-1.0

1964

8

13

2.7

3.3

-0.1

-3.4

 

15.7

15.6

14.5

 

-1.1

1964

8

14

8.1

9.4

8

-1.4

 

15.7

15.6

14.5

 

-1.1

1964

8

15

13.2

13.6

14

0.4

 

15.7

15.6

14.5

 

-1.1

1964

8

16

8.6

6.7

3.3

-3.4

 

15.7

15.6

14.5

 

-1.1

1964

8

17

9.8

8.3

5.7

-2.6

 

15.7

15.6

14.5

 

-1.1

1964

8

18

6.2

6.3

2.9

-3.4

 

15.7

15.5

14.5

 

-1.1

1964

8

19

7.6

7.8

5.3

-2.5

 

15.7

15.5

14.5

 

-1.1

1964

8

20

8.4

9.3

7.4

-1.9

 

15.6

15.5

14.4

 

-1.1

    Avg.

10.04

9.61

7.88

-1.73

           

 Note the -0.1 in August 1964!  The average cooling adjustment is -1.73 degrees Celsius.

The lowest temperature for the new Airport was -0.1 on 19/07/2007, the only time the raw temperature for Brisbane has been below zero.  Acorn has several below zero temperatures in the 1960s, and has the record low as -2.2 on 22/07/1951, an adjustment of -4 degrees. 

The Percentile Matching algorithm may, in theory, be an excellent method of homogenizing temperatures.  However its effect in practice is to garble our temperature record, to make a nonsense of it.  

We’re being conned.

Global Temperature Predictions- April

April 18, 2012

This page will be reposted around the middle of May, as soon as SOI and UAH data for the previous month are available.

The March UAH value is +0.11,  making the running 12 month mean +0.15 +/- 0.1.  March SOI was 2.9 but the recent 30 day average has been dropping quickly.  The next few weeks will indicate what the next ENSO event will be- El Nino (likely) or La Nina (would be very interesting!)  The monthly SOI has been positive for 24 months- it was last in negative territory in March 2010.

My predictions:

Month

Actual UAH 12 month mean

Predictions

December 2011

+0.15

+0.12

January 2012

+0.15

+0.12

February 2012

+0.14

+0.13

March 2012

+0.15

+0.13

April 2012

+0.13

May 2012

+0.12

June 2012

+0.12

July 2012

+0.13

August 2012

+0.15

September 2012

+0.15

If we enter a new El Nino phase we can expect global 12 month mean temperatures to rise steadily in the last part of 2012 and more rapidly in 2013.  If we remain in a neutral phase, 12 month mean temperatures should stay in the +0.1 to +0.2 range for the next 18 months.  A renewed La Nina will lead to temperatures dropping below +0.1, possibly to below 0.0  if La Nina is strong enough.

Last month I tipped “The Madden-Julian Oscillation will next affect southern Queensland and NSW in the period 28 March – 11 April, although rain may not be as heavy.  The influence after this will move further south in early to mid-May, and after that bring normal winter rain to southern states, although some usually spills into Queensland.”

Well, the upper level low started about 14 April and brought rain to SE Queensland and is now dumping on NSW, so it was a bit later than expected. There was also a Coral Sea trough which developed and moved west at the same time bringing further rain north of Cardwell.  However I completely missed the redevelopment of the monsoon which brought very heavy rain to north Queensland in mid-March.  Here are weekly rainfall maps showing how this developed.

Darn!  Missed it!

It appears the monsoon cycles and upper trough cycles are different, but sometimes coinciding as in early 2011.

The next weather enhancement for SE Queensland and NSW  will be in about five to seven weeks- late May to early June.

The monsoon has now retreated but still appears to be lingering in the Torres Strait.  The ants are still climbing high and building entrance chimneys, so if they know anything there’s more rain to come!

2011 in review

January 2, 2012

The WordPress.com stats helper monkeys prepared a 2011 annual report for this blog.

Here’s an excerpt:

The concert hall at the Syndey Opera House holds 2,700 people. This blog was viewed about 12,000 times in 2011. If it were a concert at Sydney Opera House, it would take about 4 sold-out performances for that many people to see it.

Click here to see the complete report.

Appendix: Information supplied by BOM

October 24, 2011

Data and Metadata for High-quality Stations

 Further information available in

 Della-Marta P Collins C and Braganza K (2004), Updating Australia’s high-quality annual temperature dataset, Australian Meteorological Magazine 53 75-93.

Torok S J and Nicholls N (1996), A historical annual temperature dataset for Australia. Australian Meteorological Magazine 45 251-260.

Torok S (1996), The development of a high quality historical temperature data base for Australia. PhD Thesis, School of Earth

 All high-quality homogenised temperature data available at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/hqsites/

 All monthly temperature data available at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/

 Key to Adjustments

Station
Element (1021=min, 1001=max)
Year
Type (1=single years, 0=all previous years)
Adjustment
Cumulative adjustment
Reason : o= objective test
                f= median
                r= range
                d= detect
                l= overlap data
documented changes : m= move
                                    s= stevenson screen supplied
                                    b= building
                                    v= vegetation (trees, grass growing, etc)
                                    c= change in site/temporary site
                                    n= new screen
                                    p= poor site/site cleared
                                    u= old/poor screen or screen fixed
                                    a= composite move
                                    e= entry/observer/instument problems
                                    i= inspection
                                    t= time change
                                    *= documentation unclear
 

OMEO

083025


Overview

1 = very good, 2 = good, 3 = fair, 4 = poor, 5 = very poor, 6 = city
The 2002 rank of this station : 2 URBAN: N
The 1996 Torok rank of this station : 3 URBAN: N

Good complete, non-urban record. Objective test picked up 1996 site move and small adjustment made for Max T. ____________________________________________________________________
COMPOSITE STATION HISTORY

The composite station record includes the years: 1910 to 2003

Station: 083025
For the period: 1879 to 2003


Land use and surface types of current and previous stations from SITESDB

083025
Land Use 100m: Small town < 1000 population Surface Type: mostly covered by grass
Land Use 1 km: Small town < 1000 population Soil Type: clay
Land Use 10 km: Open farmland, grassland or tundra


Urban population test

The candidate station numbers shown below could be influenced by urbanisation due to the population of the of the surrounding or adjacent city. The year shows when the population of the city exceed 10000
Stnnum Year


Urban & Rural Trend Detection Test

Torok 1996 classified this station as RURAL
Trends calculated over 1910-1993 and expressed as deg.C/10years. P-value = 1.00 – P(type 1 error)

Trend in MaxT HQAT data = 0.02 p-value = 0.46
Trend in MaxT rural interpolated data = 0.05 p-value = 0.97
Trend in MaxT difference = -0.03 p-value = -0.98

Trend in MinT HQAT data = 0.13 p-value = 1.00
Trend in MinT rural interpolated data = 0.06 p-value = 0.99
Trend in MinT difference = 0.07 p-value = 1.00


METADATA & Adjustments

METADATA Summary

Omeo,083025
08/1899: “Thermometer shed very old and imperfect”.
03/1902: Stevenson screen sent.
12/1914: First correspondence. Possible move.
11/1935: Move from newspaper to PO.
07/1950: Screen repainted, max was reading high.
11/1963: Move and new screen as old one had an iron roof since 1950.
11/1977: Move to outskirts of town.
06/1984: Move due to growth of trees.
09/1996: SITE MOVE- 400m SW of previous
09/1996: Screen replaced
11/2000: THERMOMETER CHANGE- Temperature,alcohol,minimum (13th)
12/2000: THERMOMETER CHANGE- Temperature,mercury,maximum (18th)
02/2001: THERMOMETER CHANGE- Temperature,mercury,maximum (13th)
02/2001: THERMOMETER CHANGE- Temperature,alcohol,minimum (14th)

Latest Adjustment details

Maximum Temperature

083025 tmax 1996 0 +0.1 +0.1 om
083025 tmax 1978 0 -0.4 -0.3 fdm
083025 tmax 1934 0 -0.5 -0.8 odm
083025 tmax 1917 0 -0.3 -1.1 ord
083025 tmax 1907 0 +0.6 -0.5 ord
083025 tmax 1903 0 -1.3 -1.8 os
083025 tmax 1896 0 +1.5 -0.3 dr
083025 tmax 1887 0 -2.5 -2.8 frd
083025 tmax 1883 1 +2.5 -0.3 rd

Minimum Temperature

083025 tmin 1985 0 -0.2 -0.2 dm
083025 tmin 1978 0 +0.4 +0.2 odm
083025 tmin 1962 0 -0.8 -0.6 om
083025 tmin 1938 1 +1.0 +0.4 fd
083025 tmin 1937 1 +2.0 +1.4 fd
083025 tmin 1936 1 +2.0 +1.4 fd
083025 tmin 1930 0 -0.3 -0.9 odm
083025 tmin 1907 0 -0.2 -1.1 od
083025 tmin 1899 0 +0.3 -0.8 on*
083025 tmin 1883 1 -1.5 -2.3 fd

DENILIQUIN POST OFFICE

074128


Overview

1 = very good, 2 = good, 3 = fair, 4 = poor, 5 = very poor, 6 = city
The 2002 rank of this station : 2 URBAN: N
The 1996 Torok rank of this station : 3 URBAN: N

Good complete, non-urban record. No new adjustments required. ____________________________________________________________________
COMPOSITE STATION HISTORY

The composite station record includes the years: 1910 to 2002

Station: 074128
For the period: 1858 to 2002


Land use and surface types of current and previous stations from SITESDB

074128
Land Use 100m: Town 1000 to 10,000 Surface Type: mostly covered by grass
Land Use 1 km: Town 1000 to 10,000 Soil Type: red soil
Land Use 10 km: Town 1000 to 10,000


Urban population test

The candidate station numbers shown below could be influenced by urbanisation due to the population of the of the surrounding or adjacent city. The year shows when the population of the city exceed 10000
Stnnum Year


Urban & Rural Trend Detection Test

Torok 1996 classified this station as RURAL
Trends calculated over 1910-1993 and expressed as deg.C/10years. P-value = 1.00 – P(type 1 error)

Trend in MaxT HQAT data = -0.01 p-value = -0.31
Trend in MaxT rural interpolated data = 0.04 p-value = 0.91
Trend in MaxT difference = -0.05 p-value = -1.00

Trend in MinT HQAT data = 0.10 p-value = 1.00
Trend in MinT rural interpolated data = 0.09 p-value = 1.00
Trend in MinT difference = 0.01 p-value = 0.02


METADATA & Adjustments

METADATA Summary

Deniliquin,074128
Some data deleted by BoM prior to 1964.
12/1925: First correspondence.
12/1949: Buildings have restricted yard.
02/1967: More building in 1950 rendered site very poor.
09/1971: Site moved 1 km northwest.
09/1984: Site moved to airport 3.7 km south.
03/2000: Screen replaced
02/2001: THERMOMETER CHANGE- Temperature,mercury,maximum (8th)
02/2002: THERMOMETER CHANGE- Temperature,alcohol,minimum (14th)

Latest Adjustment details

Maximum Temperature

074128 tmax 1984 0 -0.3 -0.3 odm
074128 tmax 1961 1 -0.7 -1.0 frdb
074128 tmax 1960 1 +1.0 +0.7 frdb
074128 tmax 1959 1 -0.7 -1.0 frdb
074128 tmax 1958 1 -0.7 -1.0 frdb
074128 tmax 1957 1 -0.7 -1.0 frdb
074128 tmax 1949 1 +0.4 +0.1 odb
074128 tmax 1948 1 +0.4 +0.1 odb
074128 tmax 1947 1 +0.4 +0.1 odb
074128 tmax 1946 1 +0.4 +0.1 odb
074128 tmax 1945 1 +0.4 +0.1 odb
074128 tmax 1944 1 +0.4 +0.1 odb
074128 tmax 1909 0 -0.8 -1.1 od
074128 tmax 1905 0 -1.6 -2.7 od
074128 tmax 1889 1 -0.6 -3.3 fd
074128 tmax 1888 1 -0.6 -3.3 fd
074128 tmax 1887 1 -1.8 -4.5 fd
074128 tmax 1886 1 -0.6 -3.3 fd
074128 tmax 1884 0 +1.5 -1.2 ord

Minimum Temperature

074128 tmin 1971 0 -0.8 -0.8 odm
074128 tmin 1951 0 -0.3 -1.1 orb
074128 tmin 1908 0 +1.0 -0.1 ords*
074128 tmin 1907 1 +1.0 +0.9 fd
074128 tmin 1903 0 +0.7 +0.6 ord
074128 tmin 1900 1 -1.2 -0.6 fd
074128 tmin 1899 1 -1.2 -0.6 fd
074128 tmin 1898 1 -1.2 -0.6 fd
074128 tmin 1877 1 -1.0 -0.4 d
074128 tmin 1874 1 +0.8 +1.4 d

 

NHILL

078031


Overview

1 = very good, 2 = good, 3 = fair, 4 = poor, 5 = very poor, 6 = city
The 2002 rank of this station : 3 URBAN: N
The 1996 Torok rank of this station : 2 URBAN: N

No overlap data for 1995 site move. Good completeness since move. Objective test detected move in Max T – adjustment made. Adjustment for Min T estimated. Oct 2007: Problems with homogeneity of early Min T record identified – so 1924-1930 single year adjustments removed, 1911 adjustment removed and 1915 adjustment identified by objective test added. ____________________________________________________________________
COMPOSITE STATION HISTORY

The composite station record includes the years: 1910 to 2006

Station: 078031
For the period: 1897 to 2006


Land use and surface types of current and previous stations from SITESDB

078031
Land Use 100m: Open farmland, grassland or tundra Surface Type: mostly covered by grass
Land Use 1 km: Town 1000 to 10,000 Soil Type: clay
Land Use 10 km: Town 1000 to 10,000


Urban population test

The candidate station numbers shown below could be influenced by urbanisation due to the population of the of the surrounding or adjacent city. The year shows when the population of the city exceed 10000
Stnnum Year


Urban & Rural Trend Detection Test

Torok 1996 classified this station as RURAL
Trends calculated over 1910-1993 and expressed as deg.C/10years. P-value = 1.00 – P(type 1 error)

Trend in MaxT HQAT data = 0.07 p-value = 1.00
Trend in MaxT rural interpolated data = 0.08 p-value = 1.00
Trend in MaxT difference = -0.01 p-value = -0.39

Trend in MinT HQAT data = 0.03 p-value = 0.76
Trend in MinT rural interpolated data = 0.08 p-value = 1.00
Trend in MinT difference = -0.05 p-value = -1.00


METADATA & Adjustments

METADATA Summary

Nhill,078031
03/1898: Thermometers broken by lame cockatoo.
03/1911: First correspondence.
07/1926: Iron shed to be built near screen.
07/1930: Likely move 1.5 miles from PO to flour mill.
08/1949: Site moved from PO to aerodrome.
03/1966: Move from aerodrome to good town site.
11/1970: Move across street due to likely building.
03/1976: Move within town.
08/1992: Small move away from garage.
12/1994: OBSERVER- long time observer died- station will close till new obvserver trained
01/1995: SITE MOVE- Station re-opens 5km from former- good exposure
01/1995: THERMOMETER CHANGE- Temperature,Drybulb (16th)
01/2002: THERMOMETER CHANGE- Temperature,Alcohl,Minimum (25th)

Latest Adjustment details

Maximum Temperature

078031 tmax 1994 0 +0.3 +0.3 om
078031 tmax 1950 0 -0.4 -0.1 odm
078031 tmax 1915 1 +1.0 +0.9 fd
078031 tmax 1905 1 -3.5 -3.6 frd
078031 tmax 1904 1 -2.5 -2.6 frd

Minimum Temperature

078031 tmin 1994 0 -0.8 -0.8 fm
078031 tmin 1948 0 -0.8 -1.6 odm
078031 tmin 1931 0 +0.2 -1.4 odm
078031 tmin 1915 0 -0.6 -2.0 o
078031 tmin 1905 1 +3.5 +1.5 frd
078031 tmin 1904 1 +1.8 -0.2 frd
078031 tmin 1903 1 +0.8 -1.2 frd
078031 tmin 1902 1 +0.8 -1.2 frd

 

WAGGA WAGGA AMO

072150 072151


Overview

1 = very good, 2 = good, 3 = fair, 4 = poor, 5 = very poor, 6 = city
The 2002 rank of this station : 2 URBAN: N
The 1996 Torok rank of this station : 2 URBAN: N

Good complete record. Located at airport since 1943 – urban warming unlikely. No new adjustments required. ____________________________________________________________________
COMPOSITE STATION HISTORY

The composite station record includes the years: 1910 to 2003

Station: 072150
For the period: 1943 to 2003
Station: 072151
For the period: 1908 to 1942


Land use and surface types of current and previous stations from SITESDB

072150
Land Use 100m: Airport Surface Type: fully covered by grass
Land Use 1 km: Airport Soil Type: red soil
Land Use 10 km: City area, buildings < 10 metres (3 storey)

072151
Land Use 100m: Surface Type:
Land Use 1 km: Soil Type:
Land Use 10 km:


Urban population test

The candidate station numbers shown below could be influenced by urbanisation due to the population of the of the surrounding or adjacent city. The year shows when the population of the city exceed 10000
Stnnum Year

072151 1928


Urban & Rural Trend Detection Test

Torok 1996 classified this station as RURAL
Trends calculated over 1910-1993 and expressed as deg.C/10years. P-value = 1.00 – P(type 1 error)

Trend in MaxT HQAT data = -0.04 p-value = -0.77
Trend in MaxT rural interpolated data = -0.00 p-value = -0.08
Trend in MaxT difference = -0.04 p-value = -1.00

Trend in MinT HQAT data = 0.18 p-value = 1.00
Trend in MinT rural interpolated data = 0.05 p-value = 0.92
Trend in MinT difference = 0.13 p-value = 1.00


METADATA & Adjustments

METADATA Summary

Wagga Wagga,072150,072151
07/1923: First correspondence.
07/1925: Move to police grounds due to building at PO.
04/1928: Move due to previous site opening to public.
10/1933: Screen reoriented after facing east.
01/1943: Move to MO for composite site.
10/1994: AWS INSTALLED- Almos 21/10/1994
05/2000: Temperature Probe Drybulb serviced calibrated.
01/2001: Screen replaced

Latest Adjustment details

Maximum Temperature

072150 tmax 1942 0 -1.0 -1.0 oda
072150 tmax 1929 0 +0.3 -0.7 odm
072150 tmax 1924 0 -0.7 -1.4 odm

Minimum Temperature

072150 tmin 1969 0 -0.7 -0.7 od
072150 tmin 1949 0 -1.0 -1.7 oda*
072150 tmin 1918 1 +2.2 +0.5 frd
072150 tmin 1917 1 +0.8 -0.9 fd

KELLERBERRIN

010073


Overview

1 = very good, 2 = good, 3 = fair, 4 = poor, 5 = very poor, 6 = city
The 2002 rank of this station : 2 URBAN: N
The 1996 Torok rank of this station : 2 URBAN: N

Generally a good station record but some missing data during the 1980s. Adjustments added due to a site move in 1997. The new site is open and well exposed. ____________________________________________________________________
COMPOSITE STATION HISTORY

The composite station record includes the years: 1910 to 2003

Station: 010073
For the period: 1910 to 2003


Land use and surface types of current and previous stations from SITESDB

010073
Land Use 100m: Airport Surface Type: bare ground
Land Use 1 km: Open farmland, grassland or tundra Soil Type: sand
Land Use 10 km: Open farmland, grassland or tundra


Urban population test

The candidate station numbers shown below could be influenced by urbanisation due to the population of the of the surrounding or adjacent city. The year shows when the population of the city exceed 10000
Stnnum Year


Urban & Rural Trend Detection Test

Torok 1996 classified this station as RURAL
Trends calculated over 1910-1993 and expressed as deg.C/10years. P-value = 1.00 – P(type 1 error)

Trend in MaxT HQAT data = 0.08 p-value = 1.00
Trend in MaxT rural interpolated data = 0.06 p-value = 0.97
Trend in MaxT difference = 0.02 p-value = 0.86

Trend in MinT HQAT data = 0.11 p-value = 1.00
Trend in MinT rural interpolated data = 0.09 p-value = 1.00
Trend in MinT difference = 0.02 p-value = 0.98


METADATA & Adjustments

METADATA Summary

Kellerberrin,010073
10/1913: First correspondence
1910s : Observer problems.
06/1935: New screen after being in poor state of repair.
01/1939: Min problems due to reading of wrong end.
05/1971: Move 30m N to better exposure.
11/1971: Move 6m W of PO.
11/1979: Screen moved to Telecom land.
1979-85: No moves.
10/1985: Move 500m E of PO.
05/1997: SITE MOVED – to airport, old site bitumenised.
12/1999: Screen broken.
08/2000: Screen broken.
12/2000: Screen OK.
12/2000: SUSPECT DATA – Thermometer, Alcohol, Min broken.
01/2001: THERMOMETER REPLACED – Alcohol, Min.
03/2001: THERMOMETER REPLACED – Mercury, Max.
05/2002: THERMOMETER REPLACED – Alcohol, Min.

Latest Adjustment details

Maximum Temperature

010073 tmax 1996 0 +0.4 +0.4 rm
010073 tmax 1986 0 -0.6 -0.2 frdm
010073 tmax 1939 0 -0.6 -0.8 ord

Minimum Temperature

010073 tmin 1996 0 -0.8 -0.8 rm
010073 tmin 1972 0 -0.4 -1.2 odm
010073 tmin 1938 1 -1.3 -2.1 fde
010073 tmin 1938 0 +0.4 -2.1 frd
010073 tmin 1937 1 +1.4 +0.6 fde
010073 tmin 1936 1 +0.6 -0.2 fde
010073 tmin 1935 1 +0.6 -0.2 fde

 

WANGARATTA AERO

082138 082053


Overview

1 = very good, 2 = good, 3 = fair, 4 = poor, 5 = very poor, 6 = city
The 2002 rank of this station : 3 URBAN: Y
The 1996 Torok rank of this station : 2 URBAN: Y

Good completeness but recent site moves have no supporting metadata. Strong urban warming. Objective test failed to pick up site move – adjustment estimated for Min T only. ____________________________________________________________________
COMPOSITE STATION HISTORY

The composite station record includes the years: 1910 to 2003

Station: 082138
For the period: 1987 to 2003
Station: 082053
For the period: 1901 to 1986


Land use and surface types of current and previous stations from SITESDB

082138
Land Use 100m: Open farmland, grassland or tundra Surface Type: mostly covered by grass
Land Use 1 km: Open farmland, grassland or tundra Soil Type: red soil
Land Use 10 km: Open farmland, grassland or tundra

082053
Land Use 100m: Surface Type:
Land Use 1 km: Soil Type:
Land Use 10 km:


Urban population test

The candidate station numbers shown below could be influenced by urbanisation due to the population of the of the surrounding or adjacent city. The year shows when the population of the city exceed 10000
Stnnum Year

082053 1953


Urban & Rural Trend Detection Test

Torok 1996 classified this station as URBAN
Trends calculated over 1910-1993 and expressed as deg.C/10years. P-value = 1.00 – P(type 1 error)

Trend in MaxT HQAT data = 0.07 p-value = 0.99
Trend in MaxT rural interpolated data = 0.04 p-value = 0.85
Trend in MaxT difference = 0.04 p-value = 1.00

Trend in MinT HQAT data = 0.13 p-value = 1.00
Trend in MinT rural interpolated data = 0.08 p-value = 1.00
Trend in MinT difference = 0.05 p-value = 1.00


METADATA & Adjustments

METADATA Summary

Wangaratta,082138,081053
11/1900: Stevenson screen sent.
03/1911: First correspondence.
10/1930: Screen repaired, roof was poor.
08/1938: Poor observer does not conform to observation times.
10/1938: Site moved to PO for new observer.
07/1952: Site was poor but even worse now due to building.
09/1952: Move to clear site on next block?
08/1961: Move 200 yards to new site.
04/1970: New site one mile west due to unreliable observer.
09/1974: Move 3 km south.
01/1987: Move to airport for composite.
06/1990: POOR EXPOSURE Screen over concrete. Should be removed.
05/1991: SITE MOVE- Screen moved off concrete slab 5m North . Concrete
slab close to screen and still compromising exposure.
06/1993: Screen replaced
09/1995: AWS INSTALLED- Almos 15/06/1993
09/1995: SITE MOVE- photose suggest AWS seems to be located in different
place to manual instruments, no site diagram in records.
08/1996: AWS CHANGE- Almos (8th) from station file. No record in SitesDB
03/1999: THERMOMETER CHANGE- Temperature,Probe,Drybulb (15th)

Latest Adjustment details

Maximum Temperature

082138 tmax 1988 0 -0.1 -0.1 fda
082138 tmax 1974 0 +0.3 +0.2 fdm
082138 tmax 1960 0 -0.7 -0.5 om
082138 tmax 1953 0 -0.5 -1.0 om
082138 tmax 1939 0 +0.3 -0.7 om
082138 tmax 1918 0 +0.6 -0.1 od
082138 tmax 1902 1 -1.0 -1.1 frs

Minimum Temperature

082138 tmin 1994 0 -1.3 -1.3 fm
082138 tmin 1988 0 -0.4 -1.7 fda
082138 tmin 1974 0 +0.4 -1.3 om
082138 tmin 1960 0 -1.1 -2.4 om
082138 tmin 1951 0 -0.4 -2.8 om
082138 tmin 1939 0 +0.7 -2.1 odm
082138 tmin 1932 0 -0.4 -2.5 odu
082138 tmin 1906 0 +0.5 -2.0 od
082138 tmin 1903 1 -1.0 -3.0 frds

ECHUCA AERODROME

080015


Overview

1 = very good, 2 = good, 3 = fair, 4 = poor, 5 = very poor, 6 = city
The 2002 rank of this station : 3 URBAN: Y
The 1996 Torok rank of this station : 3 URBAN: N

Good completeness in recent years but poor exposure for parts of record. No new discontinuities identified. Located within town of about 11,000 people till 1985 – urban warming possible. ____________________________________________________________________
COMPOSITE STATION HISTORY

The composite station record includes the years: 1910 to 2003

Station: 080015
For the period: 1881 to 2003


Land use and surface types of current and previous stations from SITESDB

080015
Land Use 100m: Airport Surface Type: mostly covered by grass
Land Use 1 km: Open farmland, grassland or tundra Soil Type: red soil
Land Use 10 km: Town 1000 to 10,000


Urban population test

The candidate station numbers shown below could be influenced by urbanisation due to the population of the of the surrounding or adjacent city. The year shows when the population of the city exceed 10000
Stnnum Year


Urban & Rural Trend Detection Test

Torok 1996 classified this station as RURAL
Trends calculated over 1910-1993 and expressed as deg.C/10years. P-value = 1.00 – P(type 1 error)

Trend in MaxT HQAT data = 0.13 p-value = 1.00
Trend in MaxT rural interpolated data = 0.01 p-value = 0.56
Trend in MaxT difference = 0.11 p-value = 1.00

Trend in MinT HQAT data = 0.04 p-value = 0.74
Trend in MinT rural interpolated data = 0.11 p-value = 1.00
Trend in MinT difference = -0.08 p-value = -1.00


METADATA & Adjustments

METADATA Summary

Echuca,080015
1892: Site is at Police station.
05/1899: Barrachi visits and pays for “painting thermometer shed etc.”.
07/1923: First correspondence.
08/1925: Screen in poor condition, sagging, sun shines on thermometers.
04/1939: Move to PO but site is hemmed in.
10/1958: Site poor and cluttered, screen facing west.
10/1966: Screen is an ‘old type’.
10/1967: Move to new site and new screen supplied.
06/1974: Move to better exposure.
04/1985: Site moved to airport.
12/1990: POOR EXPOSURE – the screen is showing signs of dry rot, will be replaced next visit. The site is open and well exposure apart form the concrete slabs leading to the screen and blue-stone in the car park.
01/1992: SCREEN CHANGE – screen in poor condition, replaced.
04/1995: SCREEN CHANGE – screen deteriorating, replaced.

Latest Adjustment details

Maximum Temperature

080015 tmax 1985 0 -0.5 -0.5 odm
080015 tmax 1975 0 +0.5 +0.0 odm
080015 tmax 1968 0 -0.9 -0.9 om
080015 tmax 1939 0 +0.5 -0.4 odm
080015 tmax 1924 0 -0.8 -1.2 odu
080015 tmax 1909 0 +0.3 -0.9 od
080015 tmax 1901 1 -1.5 -2.4 frd
080015 tmax 1900 1 -1.0 -1.9 frd
080015 tmax 1899 1 -1.0 -1.9 frd
080015 tmax 1888 0 +0.6 -0.3 od
080015 tmax 1882 1 -1.0 -1.3 d

Minimum Temperature

080015 tmin 1985 0 -0.5 -0.5 odm
080015 tmin 1975 0 -0.3 -0.8 odm
080015 tmin 1968 0 -0.6 -1.4 odm
080015 tmin 1939 0 +0.4 -1.0 odm
080015 tmin 1925 0 -0.6 -1.6 odu
080015 tmin 1900 1 +1.5 -0.1 or
080015 tmin 1899 1 +1.0 -0.6 or
080015 tmin 1898 1 +0.5 -1.1 or
080015 tmin 1897 1 +0.5 -1.1 or
080015 tmin 1885 0 +1.5 -0.1 ord

 

BENALLA (SHADFORTH STREET)

082002


Overview

1 = very good, 2 = good, 3 = fair, 4 = poor, 5 = very poor, 6 = city
The 2002 rank of this station : 3 URBAN: Y
The 1996 Torok rank of this station : 3 URBAN: N

Complete record but poorly exposed. No new discontinuities identified. Located within town of approx 9,200 so some urban warming likely. ____________________________________________________________________
COMPOSITE STATION HISTORY

The composite station record includes the years: 1910 to 2003

Station: 082002
For the period: 1903 to 2003


Land use and surface types of current and previous stations from SITESDB

082002
Land Use 100m: Town 1000 to 10,000 Surface Type: fully covered by grass
Land Use 1 km: Town 1000 to 10,000 Soil Type: clay
Land Use 10 km: Open farmland, grassland or tundra


Urban population test

The candidate station numbers shown below could be influenced by urbanisation due to the population of the of the surrounding or adjacent city. The year shows when the population of the city exceed 10000
Stnnum Year


Urban & Rural Trend Detection Test

Torok 1996 classified this station as RURAL
Trends calculated over 1910-1993 and expressed as deg.C/10years. P-value = 1.00 – P(type 1 error)

Trend in MaxT HQAT data = 0.02 p-value = 0.54
Trend in MaxT rural interpolated data = 0.04 p-value = 0.89
Trend in MaxT difference = -0.02 p-value = -0.69

Trend in MinT HQAT data = 0.10 p-value = 1.00
Trend in MinT rural interpolated data = 0.07 p-value = 1.00
Trend in MinT difference = 0.02 p-value = 0.97


METADATA & Adjustments

METADATA Summary

Benalla,082002
Stevenson screen supplied around 1899?
01/1921: Move.
05/1939: Slight move away from concrete. Site is poor.
11/1944: Screen is poor with iron roof and exposure cramped. 06/1951: Move 140m from PO to better exposure.
06/1960: Move to Postmaster’s residence.
12/1968: Move due to change of house.
04/1985: Move to good site.
1993: POOR EXPOSURE- Site is in backyard on watered lawn. Surrounded by
galvanised iron fence and buildings. Shade for part of the day.
12/2000: THERMOMETER CHANGE- Temperature,Alcohol,Minimum (20th)
10/2001: THERMOMETER CHANGE- Temperature,Mercury,Maximum (2nd)

Latest Adjustment details

Maximum Temperature

082002 tmax 1959 0 -0.8 -0.8 om
082002 tmax 1938 1 -1.0 -1.8 fdp
082002 tmax 1937 1 -1.0 -1.8 fdp
082002 tmax 1912 0 +0.5 -0.3 ord

Minimum Temperature

082002 tmin 1986 0 +0.4 +0.4 om
082002 tmin 1960 0 -0.6 -0.2 om
082002 tmin 1958 1 -0.5 -0.7 fdp
082002 tmin 1957 1 -0.5 -0.7 fdp
082002 tmin 1956 1 -0.5 -0.7 fdp
082002 tmin 1949 1 -0.5 -0.7 fdu
082002 tmin 1948 1 -0.5 -0.7 fdu
082002 tmin 1940 1 -0.5 -0.7 fdu
082002 tmin 1939 1 -0.5 -0.7 fdu
082002 tmin 1938 1 -0.5 -0.7 fdu
082002 tmin 1935 0 -0.9 -1.1 oru
082002 tmin 1911 1 +1.0 -0.1 fd

 

DUBBO AIRPORT AWS

065070 065012


Overview

1 = very good, 2 = good, 3 = fair, 4 = poor, 5 = very poor, 6 = city
The 2002 rank of this station : 3 URBAN: Y
The 1996 Torok rank of this station : 4 URBAN: Y

New site open and well exposed. Reasonable overlap data. Site move not detected by objective test. Max T adjustment calculated using overlap data. 1998 used as change year. No new Min T adjustments. Some urban warming in the historical record. ____________________________________________________________________
COMPOSITE STATION HISTORY

The composite station record includes the years: 1910 to 2003

Station: 065070
For the period: 1994 to 2003
Station: 065012
For the period: 1871 to 1993


Land use and surface types of current and previous stations from SITESDB

065070
Land Use 100m: Airport Surface Type: partly covered by grass
Land Use 1 km: Airport Soil Type: red soil
Land Use 10 km: City area, buildings < 10 metres (3 storey)

065012
Land Use 100m: City area, buildings < 10 metres (3 storey) Surface Type: fully covered by grass
Land Use 1 km: City area, buildings < 10 metres (3 storey) Soil Type: sand
Land Use 10 km: Open farmland, grassland or tundra


Urban population test

The candidate station numbers shown below could be influenced by urbanisation due to the population of the of the surrounding or adjacent city. The year shows when the population of the city exceed 10000
Stnnum Year

065012 1948


Urban & Rural Trend Detection Test

Torok 1996 classified this station as URBAN
Trends calculated over 1910-1993 and expressed as deg.C/10years. P-value = 1.00 – P(type 1 error)

Trend in MaxT HQAT data = -0.06 p-value = -0.95
Trend in MaxT rural interpolated data = -0.12 p-value = -1.00
Trend in MaxT difference = 0.05 p-value = 0.99

Trend in MinT HQAT data = 0.20 p-value = 1.00
Trend in MinT rural interpolated data = 0.10 p-value = 1.00
Trend in MinT difference = 0.10 p-value = 1.00


METADATA & Adjustments

METADATA Summary

Dubbo,065070,065012
1873: Move of site.
1884: Move of site.
1921: Move of site.
02/1929: First correspondence.
04/1929: Observers of 60 years leave, so site moved to PO.
04/1938: New screen replaces very poor one and moved to better position.
07/1953: Building necessitates move next door after screen had been left on a fence.
11/1969: Screen moved 50 feet to better exposure.
01/1978: Move due to building 150 m west.
02/1982: Move to another poor site 300 yards southeast.
10/1986: Site moved 5 km northwest to good exposure.
10/1999: THERMOMETER CHANGE- Temperature,Mercury,Drybulb (14th)
01/2000: Station Closed 19/01/2000
01/2000: SITE MOVE to 065070 aero AWS (Micromac) opened 18/12/1992
Screen replaced 06/1//1997
04/2000: AWS CHANGE- Micromac (3rd)
01/2001: AWS CHANGE- Almos (16th)

Latest Adjustment details

Maximum Temperature

065070 tmax 1998 0 -0.3 -0.3 lm
065070 tmax 1987 0 +0.5 +0.2 fdm
065070 tmax 1954 0 -0.5 -0.3 fdm
065070 tmax 1924 0 -0.6 -0.9 odm
065070 tmax 1908 0 -1.3 -2.2 ods*
065070 tmax 1899 0 +0.8 -1.4 o
065070 tmax 1891 1 +1.3 -0.1 fd
065070 tmax 1890 1 +1.3 -0.1 fd
065070 tmax 1884 0 +2.0 +0.6 odm
065070 tmax 1876 0 +1.4 +2.0 odm

Minimum Temperature

065070 tmin 1987 0 -0.8 -0.8 odm
065070 tmin 1977 0 +0.3 -0.5 odm
065070 tmin 1970 0 -0.7 -1.2 odm
065070 tmin 1952 0 -0.4 -1.6 odm
065070 tmin 1941 1 +0.5 -1.1 fdp*
065070 tmin 1940 1 +0.5 -1.1 fdp*
065070 tmin 1929 0 +0.5 -1.1 odm
065070 tmin 1924 0 -0.5 -1.6 odm
065070 tmin 1918 1 +0.8 -0.8 fd
065070 tmin 1917 1 +0.8 -0.8 fd
065070 tmin 1916 1 +0.8 -0.8 fd
065070 tmin 1908 0 +0.9 -0.7 ods*
065070 tmin 1896 0 +0.7 -0.0 od
065070 tmin 1885 0 -2.2 -2.2 ordm
065070 tmin 1874 1 +7.0 +4.8 rdm
065070 tmin 1873 1 +2.0 -0.2 d

An Apology

September 7, 2011

I have not been able to give much attention to this blog for the past couple of months due to family circumstances, so I am sorry to be well
behind with my posts.

September Global temperature is posted below, but it will be a week or two at least until the first of my next posts, which will be:

  • An analysis of the BOM explanations for their adjustments to the raw temperature data
  • Long term SOI influences on global temperature
  • An analysis of Australian minima 1910-2010.

Thanks for your patience.

Global Temperature Page- September

September 7, 2011

This page will be reposted around the middle of each month, as soon as SOI and UAH data for the previous month are available. The August UAH value is +0.33 making the running 12 month mean +0.20 +/- 0.1.

Month

Predicted 12 month running mean

Actual UAH 12 month mean

March 2011

+0.29 +/- 0.05

+0.27

April 2011

+0.23 +/- 0.05

+0.25

May 2011

+0.21 +/- 0.05

+0.22

June 2011

+0.16 +/- 0.1

+0.21

July 2011

+0.12 +/- 0.1

+0.21

August 2011

+0.07 +/- 0.1

+0.20

September 2011

+0.01 +/- 0.1

October 2011

+0.01 +/- 0.1

November 2011

0 +/- 0.1

December 2011

0.02 +/- 0.1

January 2012

0.05+/- 0.1

February 2012

0.04+/- 0.1

 

My short term predictions are straying from the observations, so some adjustments to my methodology are necessary. With La Nina seeming likely, I have factored in SOI values of +10 until April next year.

Here is a plot of my expected long term values of the 12 month running mean of UAH anomalies, barring major volcanic eruptions or a significant shift in climate regime (which certainly is on the cards).

My tip is that temperatures will be largely in the middle to lower portion, but will rise towards the upper limit with El Ninos. This will be the subject of a large post I have been promising for months but am little closer to completing.

I’m also tipping a significant weather event in Eastern Australia (storms or rain) around the end of September to the first week in October, give or take a few days.

Global Temperature Page- August

August 5, 2011

This page will be reposted around the middle of each month, as soon as SOI and UAH data for the previous month are available.

The July UAH value has kicked up to +0.37 making the running 12 month mean +0.21 +/-  0.1.

Month

12 month running mean

Actual UAH  12 month mean

March 2011

+0.29 +/- 0.05

+0.27

April 2011

+0.23 +/- 0.05

+0.25

May 2011

+0.21 +/- 0.05

+0.22

June 2011

+0.16 +/- 0.1

+0.21

July 2011

+0.12 +/- 0.1

+0.21

August            2011

+0.07   +/- 0.1

September 2011

+0.01 +/- 0.1

October 2011

+0.01 +/- 0.1

November 2011

0 +/- 0.1

December 2011

0.02 +/- 0.1

January 2012

0.05+/- 0.1

 

 

 

 

 

 I have extended the plot to December 2012 (with SOI values of 0, or neutral), but playing with the long term values I use by decreasing the 10 year SOI influence gives this:

So not so good at short term prediction, but I will shortly post to show long term values.

The SOI has risen sharply, leading to the possibility of another La Nina event.  We may get another wet spring and summer wet season in Australia, and although BOM has tipped a warm spring outlook (and temperatures have certainly warmed in the past couple of weeks) they’ve been wrong before.  I expect average to cooler temperatures across eastern Australia.

January global 12 month mean anomaly should be +0.05 +/- 0.1.

 

Global Temperature Page- July 2011

July 11, 2011

 

This page will be reposted around the middle of each month, as soon as SOI and UAH data for the previous month are available.

 

The June UAH value has kicked up to +0.32 making the running 12 month mean +0.21 +/-  0.1.  That’s 0.05 above my prediction. (Still close but starting to break away.  I knew I’d get burnt sooner or later.)

 

However, let’s continue.  My December prediction for the 12 month running mean- and therefore the mean anomaly for 2011- is +0.02 +/- 0.1.

 

Month

12 month running mean

Actual UAH  12 month mean

March 2011

+0.29 +/- 0.05

+0.27

April 2011

+0.23 +/- 0.05

+0.25

May 2011

+0.21 +/- 0.05

+0.22

June 2011

+0.16 +/- 0.1

+0.21

July 2011

+0.12 +/- 0.1

August            2011

+0.07   +/- 0.1

September 2011

+0.01 +/- 0.1

October 2011

+0.01 +/- 0.1

November 2011

0 +/- 0.1

December 2011

0.02 +/- 0.1

 

I’m expecting another downturn, from my reading of the plot of Global Oceanic Reflected Sunlight by Dr Roy Spencer last week.  Whether that will lead to 12 month means bottoming out as I have predicted remains to be seen.  And that is entirely the point of these posts- to test a possible methodology for linking SOI values to global temperatures.


An Apology from the Bureau!

June 21, 2011

Regular readers will remember the continuing correspondence I have had with the Bureau of Meteorology and Minister Tony Burke.  After my last letter, and more than 7 months after my original request, on 1 June I received some information by anonymous email, and today I received this letter from Dr Greg Ayers, the Director of BOM, dated 15 June.

Dear Mr Stewart

Thank you for your letter of 20 May 2011  to the Minister for Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities, the Hon Tony Burke MP, regarding the provision of climate data.  I have been requested to respond.

Further to my letter of 10 February 2011, I sincerely regret the delay in providing the data and information you requested.  I understand that the material in question has been emailed to you and should have been received on 1 June.

Thank you for your interest in the Bureau’s work.

Yours sincerely

(G. AYERS)

DIRECTOR OF METEOROLOGY

I thank Dr Ayers for his apology.  I think I’ll frame it.

I will post an analysis of the information provided in a couple of weeks.