Posts Tagged ‘correct predictions’

Weather predictions- final check

January 3, 2014

This is the final post in my series of checking a hunch that temperature change indicates a weather change 160 days later.

Back on November 3, I predicted:

“December
2 to 10 unstable; 12-13-14; 16-17-18-19; 22-23-24; 26 to 31 unstable.”

I did not change this in December.

This is how  I went:

Dec2013 predictions check

I’ve marked with green bars the predicted dates of unsettled weather as above.  Red bars show the actual times.  They match.

And finally, here’s my graph showing predicted weather events for April to June.  Again, green bars indicate dates when weather events may be expected.Apr-June 2014

I will leave this topic for now, not because the method doesn’t work (it does!), but to concentrate on other interests.

Weather predictions: December

December 1, 2013

At the start of November, I said:

“November
5 to 10 unstable; 13 to 21 unstable with several events; 26-27-28-29-30 unstable.”

All correct, 1 miss.  Instability with some very wild storms marked much of November especially in the South-East of the state.

Now I suppose anyone could have predicted storms for November.  But remember, back in August I had said:

“November

5-6-7, 9-10, 13-14-15, 17-18-19-20, 27-28-29.”

Here’s a chart showing August predictions in light green and early November predictions in dark green.octdec13resultsnov

5 right, I miss.  I should have stuck with my original predictions!

So the method is holding.

Predictions for December to 31 March remain the same as I predicted last month.  As well, I expect weather events around these dates in April and May (+/- 1 day):

2,4,7,11,15,20,23,25, May 1, 8,11.

April should have unstable weather, and I would not be surprised if we get significant rain.

 

Weather Predictions November – March

November 3, 2013

At the start of October, I made the following predictions:

October
Sep 30- 1-2, 8-9-10, 14-15-16, 20-21-22-23, 25?, 28-29-30-31-Nov 1 (possibly 2 events).

Changes were detected on:- 2-3, 8-9, 13-14, 17-18, 22-23- 24, 28- 29-30-31 (the”possibly 2 events” was true indeed with a series of storm fronts that persisted.)Oct 13 results & pred

Dark red is Tmin, pink is Tmax, black is inverted pressure, blue is rain, green is the 160 day lagged Tmin, yellow is 40 day lagged pressure.  I may try 40 day lagged temperature in future.   November and December predictions are shown as red ovals.  So there were 5 correct predictions, 1 wrong, and 1 miss (although the wrong event would have been a “correct” if it had been a day earlier).  Not bad for 160 days out, I console myself.  I also suspect there has been a slight acceleration of weather systems, so perhaps I should be looking at events around 158 days ahead instead of 160.  No matter for now but I will keep an eye on it.

Predictions for November and December (slightly adjusted from last month):

November
5 to 10 unstable; 13 to 21 unstable with several events; 26-27-28-29-30 unstable.
December
2 to 10 unstable; 12-13-14; 16-17-18-19; 22-23-24; 26 to 31 unstable.

 January to March:

Here is the graph I use for predicting weather changes, which shows 2nd derivative, or acceleration/deceleration, of minimum temperature.

jan-mar 2014 predictions

Think of a cool change moving through from the west.  A large temperature differential, or a fast moving change, both have the same effect.  When the green line goes below zero, the temperature has decelerated, and a change (or unsettled weather) occurs in the time period indicated.  Several rapid oscillations appear to relate to unsettled weather.  My only problem is I am averaging over a very wide region, and the time lag may be changing.

There is always something to learn.