At the start of October, I made the following predictions:
Sep 30- 1-2, 8-9-10, 14-15-16, 20-21-22-23, 25?, 28-29-30-31-Nov 1 (possibly 2 events).
Changes were detected on:- 2-3, 8-9, 13-14, 17-18, 22-23- 24, 28- 29-30-31 (the”possibly 2 events” was true indeed with a series of storm fronts that persisted.)
Dark red is Tmin, pink is Tmax, black is inverted pressure, blue is rain, green is the 160 day lagged Tmin, yellow is 40 day lagged pressure. I may try 40 day lagged temperature in future. November and December predictions are shown as red ovals. So there were 5 correct predictions, 1 wrong, and 1 miss (although the wrong event would have been a “correct” if it had been a day earlier). Not bad for 160 days out, I console myself. I also suspect there has been a slight acceleration of weather systems, so perhaps I should be looking at events around 158 days ahead instead of 160. No matter for now but I will keep an eye on it.
Predictions for November and December (slightly adjusted from last month):
5 to 10 unstable; 13 to 21 unstable with several events; 26-27-28-29-30 unstable.
2 to 10 unstable; 12-13-14; 16-17-18-19; 22-23-24; 26 to 31 unstable.
January to March:
Here is the graph I use for predicting weather changes, which shows 2nd derivative, or acceleration/deceleration, of minimum temperature.
Think of a cool change moving through from the west. A large temperature differential, or a fast moving change, both have the same effect. When the green line goes below zero, the temperature has decelerated, and a change (or unsettled weather) occurs in the time period indicated. Several rapid oscillations appear to relate to unsettled weather. My only problem is I am averaging over a very wide region, and the time lag may be changing.
There is always something to learn.