Posts Tagged ‘Jennifer Marohasy’

The Australian Temperature Record- A Quick Update

August 23, 2014

This morning (Saturday 23 August) the Weekend Australian published articles by Graham Lloyd, their Environment Editor, on homogenisation practices at the Bureau of Meteorology as questioned by Jennifer Marohasy.  As I had a small part to play in bringing this to public light, here is a brief post to bring readers up to date.

The last paragraph in the second article reads:

“And the bureau says an extensive study has found homogeneity adjustments have little impact on national trends and changes in temperature extremes.”

This is laughable.  Here is a graph of the national means of Raw and Homogenised minima data from 83 sites (out of 104) that I was able to compare directly. (I also analysed the remaining sites, finding 47% bias, but because large slabs of data had to be left out this is not reliable.)

Fig. 1: Australian mean minimum temperature anomalies 1910-2012

Tmin comp

 The ‘raw’ trend is +0.63C per 100 years.  The adjusted trend is +1.05C.  The effect of the homogenisation adjustments is an increase in the national trend of +0.42C or 66.6%.  So much for “little impact.”

The article referred mainly to adjustments at Amberley and Rutherglen.

Fig. 2:  Amberley minima

amberley tmin

According to the BOM, the major adjustment was due to a pronounced discontinuity around 1980, that is, Amberley’s drop in temperature is not reflected in those of neighbouring sites, as is evidently correct.

Fig. 3:  Amberley compared with the mean of 5 Acorn neighbours

amb raw v reg mean raw

 However, the nearest Acorn site only 50km away, Brisbane Aero, also has a pronounced cooling trend, and a local cooling cannot be discounted.

An adjustment to the raw data before 1980 may be warranted, however, the size of the adjustment is questionable to say the least.  The resulting trend at Amberley has now become greater than the trend of adjusted data at every one of the Acorn neighbours, and more than +0.86C greater than their mean.

Fig. 4: Amberley’s adjusted (Acorn) data vs mean of adjusted data at 5 closest Acorn sitesamb acorn v reg acorn

Rutherglen in Victoria again shows cooling turned into warming.

Fig.5: Rutherglen minima

rutherglen tmin

And again, the Acorn adjustments make Rutherglen’s trend greater than every one of its neighbours’ adjusted trends, as well as their mean:

Fig. 6: Rutherglen Acorn vs neighbours’ Acorn (mean)

rutherglen acorn v reg acorn

 

The BOM is defending its territory, but this latest media exposure will mean increasing and critical scrutiny.

Click for further examples and background.

 

 

 

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Open Letter from Jennifer Marohasy

January 10, 2014

Jennifer Marohasy has written to Dr David Jones, head of climate monitoring and predictions at the Bureau of Meteorology, which she has posted as an Open Letter at her blog.

She asked me to review her draft and I made a few small suggestions.

I wish her good luck with Dr Jones.  I am persona non grata with him apparently and I had to write to the Minister before getting a very unsatisfactory reply, many months later, from BOM- Jones refused to reply.  I had to follow up with the Minister again, with a copy to Greg Hunt as Opposition spokesman, before getting some requested information, and an apology.  I analysed this information here.  Promised Journal articles did not arrive at all, and after writing again to the Minister, I received a completely irrelevant paper on ACORN-SAT.  Another letter brought another reply from the next Minister, but still no substantive information I had requested.  This was in August 2012.  My first request for a response from Dr Jones was in July 2010, and my first letter to the Director of Meteorology was in October 2010.  I gave up after this.

I hope Dr Marohasy has more success than I did.

 

Here is her letter:

Open Letter Requesting Verification of 2013 Temperature Record

Posted by jennifer, January 9th, 2014 – under Information.
Tags: 

Dr David Jones
Manager of Climate Monitoring and Predictions
Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Dear Dr Jones

Re: Request Verification of 2013 Temperature Record

I am writing to request information be made publicly available to myself and others so we may have the opportunity to verify the claim made by you on behalf of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology that 2013 was the hottest year on record in Australia. In particular it is claimed that the average temperature was 1.20°C above the long-term average of 21.8°C, breaking the previous record set in 2005 by 0.17°C.

This claim is being extensively quoted, including in a report authored by Professor Will Steffen of the Climate Council, where he calls for the Australian government to commit to further deep reductions in greenhouse gas emissions because of this “record-breaking year”. Accurate climate records are not only of political interest, but are also of importance to those of us who rely on historical temperature data for research purposes. For example, the skill of the medium-term rainfall forecasts detailed in my recent peer-reviewed publications with John Abbot, have been influenced by the reliability of the historical temperature data that we inputted. From a very practical perspective, businesses will adjust their plans and operations based on climate data, and ordinary Australians worry and plan for the future based on anticipated climate trends.

Further, I note that you said in a radio interview on January 3, 2014, following your “hottest year on record” press release that, “We know every place across Australia is getting hotter, and very similarly almost every place on this planet. So, you know, we know it is getting hotter and we know it will continue to get hotter. It’s a reality, and something we will be living with for the rest of this century.”

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology is the custodian of an extensive data network and over a long period now, questions have been asked about the legitimacy of the methodology used to make adjustments to the raw data in the development of the Australian Climate Observations Reference Network – Surface Air Temperatures (ACORN-SAT). Furthermore, questions have been asked about why particular stations that are subject to bias through the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect continue to be included in ACORN-SAT. In particular why is ‘Melbourne Regional Office’, a station at the corner of Victoria Parade and Latrobe Street (Melbourne CBD) still included in the ACORN-SAT network when this station is known to have become sheltered from previously cooling southerly winds following construction of office towers.

I understand ACORN-SAT was used to calculate the statistics indicating 2013 was the hottest year on record, but it is unclear specifically which stations from this network were used and how data may have been further adjusted in the development of the record breaking temperature anomaly.

Rockhampton-based blogger Ken Stewart, for example, has suggested that in the calculation of the annual average temperature for Australia, the eight sites acknowledged as having anomalous warming due to the UHI would not have been included. Is this the case? I had assumed that the Bureau used all 112 ACORN-SAT locations, and thus that the record hot temperature anomaly announced by you, actually includes a UHI bias.

Radio presenter Michael Smith has given some publicity to claims made by blogger Samuel Gordon-Stewart that the Bureau has overestimated the average Australian temperature by about 4 degrees. Mr Gordon-Stewart calculated average temperatures and temperature anomalies from data from all the weather stations listed by Weatherzone.

Furthermore, given many ACORN-SAT stations have continuous temperature records extending back to the mid-late 1800s and many stations were fitted with Stevenson screens by 1900, why does the Bureau only use data after 1909, all the while claiming that 2013 is the hottest year on record? Indeed it is well documented that the 1890s and early 1900s, years corresponding to the Federation drought, were exceptionally hot.

In summary, given the importance of the historical temperature record, and the claim that 2013 is the hottest year on record, could you please provide details concerning:
1. The specific stations used to calculate this statistic;
2. The specific databases and time intervals used for each of these stations;
3. The history of the use of Stevenson screens at each of these station;
4. How the yearly average temperature is defined; and
5. Clarify what if any interpolation, area weighting, and/or adjustments for UHI bias, may have been applied to the data in the calculation of the annual mean values.

Kind regards

Dr Jennifer Marohasy

Still No Evidence of Greenhouse Warming!

January 8, 2014

This morning I noticed at Jennifer Marohasy’s post http://jennifermarohasy.com/2014/01/last-year-2013-a-hot-year-for-australia/

a comment from “Luke” (who else) objecting to my use of 2nd order polynomials in yesterday’s post.  Strictly I should stick to linear trends for a 35 year timescale, and use polynomials only for much longer periods.   Therefore, here is a plot of Australian annual minima and maxima for the 104 years from 1910 to 2013, using data straight from the BOM.minvmax poly2

Note that the red 2nd polynomial curve (maxima) shows a fairly flat trend until the 1950s, with an increasing rise since then. (Yes! It’s getting hotter!)

Note how the blue (minima ) curve also gradually rises over the years and apparently continues to do so.

However I have circled the graphs in the 1980s and the last few years.   I have blown this up so you can see more clearly what is happening.minvmax blownup

Since the mid 1980s there is a divergence in trends.  Daytime temperatures are rising faster than night time temperatures.

This is a problem because increasing CO2 and other greenhouse gases should be slowing back radiation, which should be evident in night time temperatures increasing faster.

Something else is happening.