Posts Tagged ‘Pause’

The Pause Update: April 2017

May 19, 2017

The complete UAH v6.0 data for April have finally been released. I present all the graphs for various regions, and as well summaries for easier comparison. I also include graphs for the North and South Temperate regions (20-60 North and South), estimated from Polar and Extra-Tropical data.

The Pause has ended globally and for all regions including the USA and the Southern Hemisphere, except for Southern Extra-Tropics, South Temperate, South Polar, and Australia. The 12 month mean to April 2017 for the Globe is +0.36 C and continuing steadily downwards.

These graphs show the furthest back one can go to show a zero or negative trend (less than 0.1 +/-0.1C per 100 years) in lower tropospheric temperatures. I calculate 12 month running means to remove the small possibility of seasonal autocorrelation in the monthly anomalies. Note: The satellite record commences in December 1978- now 38 years and five months long- 461 months. 12 month running means commence in November 1979. The y-axes in the graphs below are at December 1978, so the vertical gridlines denote Decembers. The final plotted points are March 2017.
[CLICK ON IMAGES TO ENLARGE]

Globe:

Pause Apr 17 globe

The Pause has ended. A trend of +0.44 C/100 years (+/- 0.1C) since March 1998 is creeping up, but the 12 month means have peaked and are heading down.

And, for the special benefit of those who think that I am deliberately fudging data by using 12 month running means, here is the plot of monthly anomalies:

Pause Apr 17 globe monthly

Northern Hemisphere:

Pause Apr 17 NH

The Northern Hemisphere Pause has well and truly ended.

Southern Hemisphere:

Pause Apr 17 SH

The Pause has ended but temperatures for the last 19 years are rising very slowly.

Tropics:

Pause Apr 17 Tropics

The Pause in the Tropics (20N to 20S) has ended and the minimal trend is now +0.45C/ 100 years. 12 month means are dropping fast.

Northern Extra Tropics:

Pause Apr 17 NExT

Northern Temperate Region:

Pause Apr 17 NTemp

Using estimates calculated from North Polar and Northern Extra-Tropics data, the slowdown is obvious.

Southern Extra Tropics:

Pause Apr 17 SExT

The Pause has weakened and shortened but still persists, and 12 month means have peaked.

Southern Temperate Region:

Pause Apr 17 STemp

Using estimates calculated from South Polar and Southern Extra-Tropics data, the Pause likewise persists.

Northern Polar:

Pause Apr 17 NP

The trend has increased rapidly and will continue to do so even though 12 month means have started to fall.  There is an argument for saying that no recent pause is visible, but there was one for the first 16 years.

Southern Polar:

Pause Apr 17 SP

The South Polar region has been cooling (-0.16C) for the entire record. Although the 12 month means may have peaked, this cooling trend will slow over the next few months.

USA 49 States:

Pause Apr 17 USA49

The Pause has ended. It will not re-appear for some time.

Australia:

Pause Apr 17 Oz

The Pause is still 21 years 2 months- well over half the record.

The next graphs summarise the above plots. First, a graph of the relative length of The Pause in the various regions:

Pause length Apr 17

Note that the Pause has ended by my criteria in all regions of Northern Hemisphere, and consequently the Globe, and the Tropics, but all southern regions have a Pause for over half the record, including the South Polar region which has been cooling for the whole record. Note that the Tropic influence has been enough to end the Pause for the Southern Hemisphere.

The variation in the linear trend for the whole record, 1978 to the present:

Trends 78 now Apr 17

Note the decrease in trends from North Polar to South Polar.

And the variation in the linear trend since June 1998, which is about halfway between the global low point of December 1997 and the peak in December 1998:

Trends June 98 now Apr 17

The imbalance between the two hemispheres is obvious. The lower troposphere over Australia has been strongly cooling for 18 years and 11 months- over half the record.  The Pause has disappeared from the USA and the Southern Hemisphere, but not the Southern Extra-Tropics, South Temperate, and South Polar regions, or Australia. El Nino tropical heat is rapidly decreasing, with all means falling. The next few months will be interesting.

The Pause Update: March 2017

April 15, 2017

The complete UAH v6.0 data for March have been released. I present all the graphs for various regions, and as well summaries for easier comparison. I also include graphs for the North and South Temperate regions (20-60 North and South), estimated from Polar and Extra-Tropical data.

The Pause has ended globally and for all regions including the USA and the Southern Hemisphere, except for Southern Extra-Tropics, South Temperate, South Polar, and Australia. The 12 month mean to March 2017 for the Globe is +0.40 C- down 0.12 C in four months.

These graphs show the furthest back one can go to show a zero or negative trend (less than 0.1 +/-0.1C per 100 years) in lower tropospheric temperatures. I calculate 12 month running means to remove the small possibility of seasonal autocorrelation in the monthly anomalies. Note: The satellite record commences in December 1978- now 38 years and four months long- 460 months. 12 month running means commence in November 1979. The y-axes in the graphs below are at December 1978, so the vertical gridlines denote Decembers. The final plotted points are March 2017.
[CLICK ON IMAGES TO ENLARGE]

Globe:

Pause Mar 17 globe

The Pause has ended. A trend of +0.41 C/100 years (+/- 0.1C) since February 1998 is creeping up, but the 12 month means have peaked and are heading down.

And, for the special benefit of those who think that I am deliberately fudging data by using 12 month running means, here is the plot of monthly anomalies:

Pause Mar 17 globe monthly

Northern Hemisphere:

Pause Mar 17 NH

The Northern Hemisphere Pause has well and truly ended.

Southern Hemisphere:

Pause Mar 17 SH

The Pause has ended but temperatures for the last 19 years are rising very slowly.

Tropics:

Pause Mar 17 Tropics

The Pause in the Tropics (20N to 20S) has ended and the minimal trend is now +0.43C/ 100 years. 12 month means are dropping fast.

Northern Extra Tropics:

Pause Mar 17 NExT

Northern Temperate Region:

Pause Mar 17 NTemp

Using estimates calculated from North Polar and Northern Extra-Tropics data, the slowdown is obvious.

Southern Extra Tropics:

Pause Mar 17 SExT

The Pause has weakened and shortened but still persists.

Southern Temperate Region:

Pause Mar 17 STemp

Using estimates calculated from South Polar and Southern Extra-Tropics data, the Pause likewise persists.

Northern Polar:

Pause Mar 17 N polar

The trend has increased rapidly and will continue to do so even though 12 month means have started to fall.

Southern Polar:

Pause Mar 17 S polar

The South Polar region has been cooling (-0.17C) for the entire record. With 12 month means still rising, this cooling trend will slow over the next few months.

USA 49 States:

Pause Mar 17 USA49

The Pause has ended. It will not re-appear for some time.

Australia:

Pause Mar 17 Oz

The Pause is still 21 years 5 months- well over half the record.

The next graphs summarise the above plots. First, a graph of the relative length of The Pause in the various regions:

Pause Mar 17 Length

Note that the Pause has ended by my criteria in all regions of Northern Hemisphere, and consequently the Globe, and the Tropics, but all southern regions have a Pause for over half the record, including the South Polar region which has been cooling for the whole record. Note that the Tropic influence has been enough to end the Pause for the Southern Hemisphere.

The variation in the linear trend for the whole record, 1978 to the present:

Pause Mar 17 Trends 78

Note the decrease in trends from North Polar to South Polar.

And the variation in the linear trend since June 1998, which is about halfway between the global low point of December 1997 and the peak in December 1998:

Pause Mar 17 Trends 98

The imbalance between the two hemispheres is obvious. The lower troposphere over Australia has been strongly cooling for 18 years and 10 months- over half the record.  The Pause has disappeared from the USA and the Southern Hemisphere, but not the Southern Extra-Tropics, South Temperate, and South Polar regions, or Australia. El Nino tropical heat is rapidly decreasing, with all means except the South Polar region falling. The next few months will be interesting.

 

The Pause Update: February 2017

March 4, 2017

The complete UAH v6.0 data for February have been released. I present all the graphs for various regions, and as well summaries for easier comparison. I also include graphs for the North and South Temperate regions (20-60 North and South), estimated from Polar and Extra-Tropical data.

The Pause has ended globally and for all regions including the USA and the Southern Hemisphere, except for Southern Extra-Tropics, South Temperate, South Polar, and Australia. The 12 month mean to February 2017 for the Globe is +0.44 C.

These graphs show the furthest back one can go to show a zero or negative trend (less than 0.1 +/-0.1C per 100 years) in lower tropospheric temperatures. I calculate 12 month running means to remove the small possibility of seasonal autocorrelation in the monthly anomalies. Note: The satellite record commences in December 1978- now 38 years and three months long- 459 months. 12 month running means commence in November 1979. The y-axes in the graphs below are at December 1978, so the vertical gridlines denote Decembers. The final plotted points are February 2017.
[CLICK ON IMAGES TO ENLARGE]

Globe:

feb-17-globe

The Pause has ended. A trend of +0.39 C/100 years (+/- 0.1C) since March 1998 is creeping up, but the 12 month means have peaked and are heading down.

And, for the special benefit of those who think that I am deliberately fudging data by using 12 month running means, here is the plot of monthly anomalies:

feb-17-globe-monthly

Northern Hemisphere:

feb-17-nh

The Northern Hemisphere Pause has well and truly ended.

Southern Hemisphere:

feb-17-sh

The Pause has ended- just.

Tropics:

feb-17-tropics

The Pause in the Tropics (20N to 20S) has ended and the minimal trend is now +0.4C/ 100 years. 12 month means are dropping fast.

Northern Extra Tropics:

feb-17-next

Northern Temperate Region:

feb-17-n-temp

Using estimates calculated from North Polar and Northern Extra-Tropics data, the slowdown is obvious.

Southern Extra Tropics:

feb-17-sext

The Pause has weakened and may soon disappear.

Southern Temperate Region:

feb-17-s-temp

Using estimates calculated from South Polar and Southern Extra-Tropics data, the Pause is shorter than for Southern Extra-Tropics.

Northern Polar:

feb-17-np

The trend has increased rapidly and will continue to do so even though 12 month means have started to fall.

Southern Polar:

feb-17-sp

The South Polar region has been cooling (-0.2C) for the entire record. With 12 month means still rising, this cooling trend will slow over the next few months.

USA 49 States:

feb-17-usa49

The Pause has ended. It will not re-appear for some time.

Australia:

feb-17-oz

The Pause is still 21 years 5 months.

The next graphs summarise the above plots. First, a graph of the relative length of The Pause in the various regions:

feb-17-pause-length

Note that the Pause has ended by my criteria in all regions of Northern Hemisphere, and consequently the Globe, and the Tropics, but all southern regions have a Pause for over half the record, including the South Polar region which has been cooling for the whole record. Note that the Tropic influence has been enough to end the Pause for the Southern Hemisphere.

The variation in the linear trend for the whole record, 1978 to the present:

feb-17-trends-78

Note the decrease in trends from North Polar to South Polar.

And the variation in the linear trend since June 1998, which is about halfway between the global low point of December 1997 and the peak in December 1998:

feb-17-trends-98

The imbalance between the two hemispheres is obvious. The lower troposphere over Australia has been strongly cooling for 18 years and 9 months- just shy of half the record.
The Pause has disappeared from the USA and the Southern Hemisphere, but not the Southern Extra-Tropics, South Temperate, and South Polar regions, or Australia. El Nino tropical heat is rapidly decreasing, with all northern means falling, but will continue to affect the Southern Hemisphere in coming months.  Global TLT anomalies have increased a little.   The next few months will be interesting.

 

 

The Pause Update: January 2017

February 12, 2017

The complete UAH v6.0 data for January have been released. I present all the graphs for various regions, and as well summaries for easier comparison. I also include graphs for the North and South Temperate regions (20-60 North and South), estimated from Polar and Extra-Tropical data.

The Pause has ended globally and for all regions including the USA and the Southern Hemisphere, except for Southern Extra-Tropics, South Temperate, South Polar, and Australia. The 12 month mean to January 2017 for the Globe is +0.48 C.

These graphs show the furthest back one can go to show a zero or negative trend (less than 0.1 +/-0.1C per 100 years) in lower tropospheric temperatures. I calculate 12 month running means to remove the small possibility of seasonal autocorrelation in the monthly anomalies. Note: The satellite record commences in December 1978- now 38 years and two months long- 458 months. 12 month running means commence in November 1979. The y-axes in the graphs below are at December 1978, so the vertical gridlines denote Decembers. The final plotted points are January 2017.
[CLICK ON IMAGES TO ENLARGE]

Globe:

pause-globe-jan17

The Pause has ended. A trend of +0.36 C/100 years (+/- 0.1C) since March 1998 is creeping up, but the 12 month means have peaked and are heading down.

And, for the special benefit of those who think that I am deliberately fudging data by using 12 month running means, here is the plot of monthly anomalies:

pause-globe-jan17-monthly

That’s since December 1997.

Northern Hemisphere:

pause-nh-jan17

The Northern Hemisphere Pause has well and truly ended.

Southern Hemisphere:

pause-sh-jan17

The Pause has ended- just.

Tropics:

pause-jan17-tropics

The Pause in the Tropics (20N to 20S) has ended and the minimal trend is now +.39C/ 100 years. 12 month means are dropping fast.

As Tropical Oceans closely mimic the Tropics overall, I won’t show their plot.

Northern Extra Tropics:

pause-jan17-next

The minimal trend is up to +0.64C/ 100 years= that’s one degree less than the whole trend.

Northern Temperate Region:

pause-jan17-ntemp

Using estimates calculated from North Polar and Northern Extra-Tropics data, while the trend since June 1998 of +0.28 +/- 0.1C per 100 years is more than my criterion for a Pause, it is 1.2C less than the trend for the whole period. The slowdown is obvious, and for Land areas the trend is zero.

Southern Extra Tropics:

pause-jan17-sext

The Pause persists strongly, however 12 month means are still rising, and the Pause may shorten or even disappear.

Southern Temperate Region:

pause-jan17-stemp

Using estimates calculated from South Polar and Southern Extra-Tropics data, the Pause is shorter than for Southern Extra-Tropics.

Northern Polar:

pause-jan17-np

The trend has increased rapidly and will continue to do so even though 12 month means have started to fall.

Southern Polar:

pause-jan17-sp

The South Polar region has been cooling for the entire record. With 12 month means still rising, this cooling trend will slow over the next few months.

USA 49 States:

pause-jan17-usa49

The Pause has ended- just. It will not re-appear for some time.

Australia:

pause-jan17-oz

The Pause is still 21 years 5 months. Heat in recent weeks may push the 12 month mean higher and shorten the Pause. (September, oops!)

The next graphs summarise the above plots. First, a graph of the relative length of The Pause in the various regions:

pause-length-jan17

Note that the Pause has ended by my criteria in all regions of Northern Hemisphere, and consequently the Globe, and the Tropics, but all southern regions have a Pause for over half the record, including the South Polar region which has been cooling for the whole record. Note that the Tropic influence has been enough to end the Pause for the Southern Hemisphere.

The variation in the linear trend for the whole record, 1978 to the present:

trend-78-jan-17

Note the decrease in trends from North Polar to South Polar.

And the variation in the linear trend since June 1998, which is about halfway between the global low point of December 1997 and the peak in December 1998:

trend-98-jan-17

The imbalance between the two hemispheres is obvious. The lower troposphere over Australia has been strongly cooling for more than 18 years- just shy of half the record.
The Pause has disappeared from the USA and Southern Hemisphere, but not the Southern Extra-Tropics, South Temperate, and South Polar regions, or Australia. El Nino tropical heat is rapidly decreasing, with all northern means falling, but will continue to affect the Southern Hemisphere in coming months.  Global TLT anomalies are now dropping rapidly. The next few months will be interesting.

Dig and Delve Part III: Temperate Regions

February 1, 2017

In this post I draw together ideas developed in previous posts- Poles Apart, Pause Updates, Dig and Delve Parts I and II– in which I lamented the lack of tropospheric data for the regions of the northern and southern hemispheres from 20 to 60 degrees North and South.  These regions between the Tropics and Polar regions I shall call Temperate regions, as that’s what I was taught in school.

A commenter of long standing, MikeR, who has always endeavoured to keep me on the straight and narrow, suggested a method of estimating temperature data for these regions using existing Polar and Extra-Tropical data.  I’ve finally got around to checking, and can now present the results.

The correct formula is:

T (20 to 60 degrees) = 1.256 x TexT ( 20 to 90 degrees) – 0.256 X T pole(60 to 90 degrees).

This gives an approximation for these regions in lieu of UAH data specifically for them.

And the results are very, very interesting.  Hello again, Pause.

All data are from the University of Alabama (Huntsville) (UAH) lower troposphere, V.6.0.

First of all, here are plots showing the Extra-Tropics (20-90), compared with  the corresponding Temperate regions (20-60).

Fig. 1:  Monthly UAH data for Northern Extra-Tropics (20-90N) and Estimate for Northern Temperate Region (20-60N)

 nth-temp-v-next

Fig. 2:  Monthly UAH data for Southern Extra-Tropics (20-90S) and Estimate for Southern Temperate Region (20-60S)

sth-temp-v-sext

As expected, the result of very slight differences is a slight cooling of the Northern Extra Tropics trend, and a slight warming for the Southern.   No surprise there.

The real surprise is in the Land and Ocean data.  In the Northern Temperate region, CuSum analysis reveals a large regime change which occurred at the beginning of 1998.  The following plots show trends in the data up to January 1998 and from February 1998 to December 2016.

Fig. 3: Estimated Northern Temperate data trends to January 1998 and from February 1998 to December 2016.

nth-temp-2-trends

Fig. 4: Estimated Northern Temperate data trends to January 1998 and from February 1998 to December 2016: Ocean areas.

nth-temp-2-trends-ocean

Fig. 5: Estimated Northern Temperate data trends to January 1998 and from February 1998 to December 2016: Land areas.

nth-temp-2-trends-land

Say hello to the Pause again.  Northern Temperate land areas- most of North America, Asia, Europe, and North Africa, containing the bulk of the world’s population, agriculture, industry, and CO2 emissions- has had zero trend for 18 years and 11 months.  While the trend for the whole record is +1.8C per 100 years, the record is clearly made of two halves, the first with a much milder +0.7C trend, then after an abrupt step change, the second half is flat- in spite of the “super El Nino” and the “hottest year ever”.

Compare this with the Extra-Tropics data, 20-90N.

Fig. 6: Northern Extra-Tropics data (20-90N) trends to January 1998 and from February 1998 to December 2016: Land areas.

next-land-2-trends

The step change is still there, but the trends are virtually unchanged- only 0.1C different +/- 0.1C.

Why the difference?  Northern Extra Tropics data (20-90N) includes the North Polar data (60-90N).  The major change in the North Polar region occurred in early 1995, as the next two figures show:

Fig. 7: Northern Polar data (60-90N) trends to February 1995 and from March 1995 to December 2016: Land areas.

np-land-2-trends

Fig. 8: Northern Polar data (60-90N) trends to February 1995 and from March 1995 to December 2016: Ocean areas.

np-ocean-2-trends

Massive changes in trend.  Note the change apparently occurred in land data before ocean, which is peculiar, and both in the dead of winter.  Polar regions, though much smaller, have a large impact on trends for the Extra-Tropics.

In the Southern part of the globe, once again say hello to the Pause.

Fig. 9: Estimated Southern Temperate data trends to January 1998 and from February 1998 to December 2016.

sth-temp-2-trends

While the step change is much smaller, using the same dates the Pause is still undeniable.

Fig. 10: Estimated Southern Temperate data trends to January 1998 and from February 1998 to December 2016- Land areas.

sth-temp-2-trends-land

Fig. 11: Estimated Southern Temperate data trends to January 1998 and from February 1998 to December 2016- Ocean areas.

sth-temp-2-trends-ocean

Most of the Southern Hemisphere is ocean, so it follows that a Pause in the ocean leads to a Pause overall.

It is important to stress that the figures I show for Northern and Southern Temperate regions are estimates, not actual data from UAH.  However, they are pretty good estimates, and until we have data from UAH, the best available.

Of the world’s regions, South Polar and Southern Temperate regions are paused, as is the Northern Temperate Land region, which is arguably the most important.  The Tropics fluctuate with ENSO.  Only the Arctic is strongly warming.

The Temperate regions are arguably the most important of the globe.  Together they cover more than half the surface area, and contain the bulk of the world’s population, agriculture, industry, and emissions.  I hope that Dr Spencer will be able to provide datasets for these regions as soon as possible.

The Pause Update: December 2016

January 5, 2017

The complete UAH v6.0 data for December have been released. I present all the graphs for various regions, and as well summaries for easier comparison. The Pause has ended globally and for the Northern Hemisphere, and the Tropics, and may soon disappear from the USA, and the Southern Hemisphere.  The 12 month mean to December 2016 for the Globe is +0.50 C.

These graphs show the furthest back one can go to show a zero or negative trend (less than 0.1 +/-0.1C per 100 years) in lower tropospheric temperatures. I calculate 12 month running means to remove the small possibility of seasonal autocorrelation in the monthly anomalies. Note: The satellite record commences in December 1978- now 38 years and one month long- 457 months. 12 month running means commence in November 1979. The y-axes in the graphs below are at December 1978, so the vertical gridlines denote Decembers. The final plotted points are December 2016.

[CLICK ON IMAGES TO ENLARGE]

Globe:

uah-dec-16-globe

The Pause has ended. A trend of +0.32 C/100 years (+/- 0.1C) since March 1998 is creeping up, but the 12 month means have peaked and are heading down.

And, for the special benefit of those who think that I am deliberately fudging data by using 12 month running means, here is the plot of monthly anomalies:

uah-dec-16-globe-monthly

That’s since December 1997.

Northern Hemisphere:

uah-dec-16-nh

The Northern Hemisphere Pause has well and truly ended.

Southern Hemisphere:

uah-dec-16-sh

For well over half the record, the Southern Hemisphere still has zero trend.  The Pause is about to end.

Tropics:

uah-dec-16-tropics

The Pause in the Tropics (20N to 20S) has ended and the minimal trend is now +.32C/ 100 years.  12 month means peaked mid-year.

As Tropical Oceans closely mimic the Tropics overall, I won’t show their plot.

Northern Extra Tropics:

uah-dec-16-next

The minimal trend is up to +0.6C/ 100 years.

Southern Extra Tropics:

uah-dec-16-sext

The Pause persists strongly, however 12 month means are still rising.

Northern Polar:

uah-dec-16-np

The trend has increased a lot to +2.35C and since February 2003 +0.88C/100 years.

Southern Polar:

uah-dec-16-sp

The South Polar region has been cooling for the entire record.

USA 49 States:

uah-dec-16-us49

The Pause has shortened again and is about to disappear altogether.

Australia:

uah-dec-16-oz

The Pause is still 21 years 5 months, and means have peaked.  Will the Australian Pause survive where others have failed?

The next graphs summarise the above plots. First, a graph of the relative length of The Pause in the various regions:

pause-length-dec-16

Note that the Pause has ended by my criteria in all regions of Northern Hemisphere, and consequently the Globe, and the Tropics, but all southern regions have a Pause for over half the record, including the South Polar region which has been cooling for the whole record.

The variation in the linear trend for the whole record, 1978 to the present:

trends-78-now-dec-16

Note the decrease in trends from North Polar to South Polar.

And the variation in the linear trend since June 1998, which is about halfway between the global low point of December 1997 and the peak in December 1998:

trends-98-now-dec-16

The imbalance between the two hemispheres is obvious. The lower troposphere over Australia has been strongly cooling for more than 18 years- just shy of half the record.

Global TLT anomalies are now dropping rapidly.  The next few months will be interesting. The Pause will disappear from the USA and Southern Hemisphere soon, but not the Southern Extra-Tropics or Australia. El Nino tropical heat is strongly affecting the North Polar region now, and will affect the Southern Hemisphere early this year.

Dig and Delve Part 1: Running Trends

December 22, 2016

This is the first in a series of posts in which I look at monthly Temperature of the Lower troposphere (TLT) anomaly data from the University of Alabama- Huntsville (UAH) in different ways, which readers may find interesting and perhaps useful.

In this post, I bring together ideas from former posts- Trending Trends: An Alternative View and Poles Apart – to compare trends in TLT using running trends.

 

Running Trends

Fig. 1: Global UAH with linear trend

linear-trend-global

This is the standard presentation.  It shows the linear trend as at November 2016.  With every new month of data, the linear trend changes.

By calculating a running trend, that is, the linear trend from the start of the series to every subsequent data point, the trend at each point is preserved, and the trend at the final point is instantly calculated.

Fig. 2:  Global UAH running trend

running-trend-global

Figure 2 shows the historical values of the linear trend at each point, and that global temperatures are demonstrably non-linear.  As I pointed out in Trending Trends: An Alternative View, each new data point will either increase, decrease, or maintain the trend.  The longer the data series, the harder it will be to change the trend: the effect diminishes with time.

(An interesting result of the diminishing effect of temperature on the running trend is that it becomes possible to identify what temperatures are doing from the shape of the running trend plot- in fact, to identify a pause or plateau.  To maintain the trend at say 1.2 degrees Celsius per 100 years, temperatures must continue to rise.  A flat-lining running trend is evidence of increasing temperatures; a rising running trend indicates a rapid increase in temperature; but a decreasing running trend is evidence of a pause or decline in temperatures.  This is not a different definition of the pause, just another indicator.)

For 10 to 15 years, the running trend swings wildly, but after this it settles.  Now it becomes useful for analysis and comparison.

In Figure 2 above, note the large effect of the 1997-98 El Nino on the trend, but the 2009-10 and 2015-16 El Ninos have much less effect on the trend.  They are still identifiable by the increase in trend.

Fig. 3:  Regional UAH running trends

running-trend-all-regions

As we have seen previously, the North Polar and South Polar regions are distinctly different from the rest of the world and from each other.  The North Polar region has had an increasing trend (rapidly increasing temperature) from 1994 to about 2007, then a slow down with another rapid rise in the last 12 months.  All other regions have had decreasing trends since 2002-3, with an uptick in the last 12-18 months, indicating the duration of The Pause.  The trend in the South Polar region has been much lower than the others, hovering about zero for the last seven or so years, and is currently negative.

For completeness, here are the running trends for continental USA and Australia.

Fig. 4:  UAH running trends:  USA 48 States

running-trend-usa48

Fig. 5:  UAH running trends:  USA 49 States

running-trend-usa49

Fig. 6:  UAH running trends:  Australia

running-trend-aus

The next plots compare Land, Ocean, and Mean running trends for the UAH regions.

Fig. 7:  Global UAH running trends: Mean Land, and Ocean

running-trend-land-ocean-mean-global

Note that the mean trend is close to that of the Ocean, but since 1995 and especially 1998, the trend of global land areas is much higher.  Because of the ocean’s large thermal inertia, land areas warm and cool more quickly.  However, since the 1997-98 El Nino, land trends did not decrease but remained high until 2007.  This graph, as any Global Warming Enthusiast (GWE) will tell you, is evidence of warming.  What they won’t tell you is that it is evidence of any type of warming whether natural or anthropogenic- it is not by itself evidence of greenhouse warming.

Fig. 8:  Northern Hemisphere UAH running trends: Mean Land, and Ocean

running-trend-land-ocean-mean-nh

Fig. 9:  Southern Hemisphere UAH running trends: Mean Land, and Ocean

running-trend-land-ocean-mean-sh

Land trends in the Southern Hemisphere, unlike the Northern, did decrease after the 1997-98 El Nino.

Fig. 10:  Tropical UAH (20N – 20S) running trends: Mean Land, and Ocean

running-trend-land-ocean-mean-tropics

Fig. 11:  Northern Extra-Tropics UAH (20N – 90N) running trends: Mean Land, and Ocean

running-trend-land-ocean-mean-next

Fig. 12:  Southern Extra-Tropics UAH (20S – 90S) running trends: Mean Land, and Ocean

running-trend-land-ocean-mean-sext

This region warmed rapidly to 2002-3, then trends decreased.

Fig. 13:  North Polar UAH (60N – 90N) running trends: Mean Land, and Ocean

running-trend-land-ocean-mean-np

Fig. 14:  South Polar UAH (60S – 90S) running trends: Mean Land, and Ocean

running-trend-land-ocean-mean-sp

In all tropical and northern regions, Land trends have been higher than Ocean trends since 1997-98 (2002 for South Polar and Southern Extra-Tropics).  However, North Polar Ocean trends have been higher than Land since 1998.  There is a greater area of ocean than land, and ocean areas have been warming more than land.  This is the opposite of what greenhouse theory predicts.  At the poles, where warming is expected to be greatest, only the North Pole is warming, and here the warming is not greatest over land, but over the ocean.

Summing up:

  • Running trends are an effective way of showing the linear trend at any given month of a data series.
  • They are useful for comparison and analysis after the first 10 to 15 years (the early 1990s).
  • A declining running trend indicates flat or declining temperatures, thus The Pause is visible from 2002-3 to 2014-5 in all regions apart from North Polar.
  • The North and South Polar regions are distinctly different from other regions and each other.
  • Apart from North Polar region, all regions show land areas warming more than ocean areas, indicating warming from whatever cause.
  • In the North Polar region, TLT running trends of ocean areas have been higher than land.
  • These trends, especially at the poles, are not consistent with greenhouse theory.

 

The next post in this series will use running trends to derive running detrended data.

The Pause Update: November 2016

December 3, 2016

The complete UAH v6.0 data for November were released yesterday evening- the quickest ever. I present all the graphs for various regions, and as well summaries for easier comparison. The Pause has ended globally and for the Northern Hemisphere, and the Tropics, and may soon disappear from the USA, but still refuses to go away in the Southern Hemisphere.

These graphs show the furthest back one can go to show a zero or negative trend (less than 0.1 +/-0.1C per 100 years) in lower tropospheric temperatures. I calculate 12 month running means to remove the small possibility of seasonal autocorrelation in the monthly anomalies. Note: The satellite record commences in December 1978- now 38 years long- 456 months. 12 month running means commence in November 1979. The y-axes in the graphs below are at December 1978, so the vertical gridlines denote Decembers. The final plotted points are October 2016.

[CLICK ON IMAGES TO ENLARGE]

Globe:

pause-nov-16-globe

The Pause has ended. A trend of +0.28 C/100 years (+/- 0.1C) since March 1998 is creeping up.

And, for the special benefit of those who think that I am deliberately fudging data by using 12 month running means, here is the plot of monthly anomalies:

pause-nov-16-globe-monthly

Northern Hemisphere:

pause-nov-16-nh

The Northern Hemisphere Pause has well and truly ended.

Southern Hemisphere:

pause-nov-16-sh

For well over half the record, the Southern Hemisphere still has zero trend.  The Pause has shortened by two months and may end shortly.

Tropics:

pause-nov-16-tropics

The Pause in the Tropics (20N to 20S) has ended and the minimal trend is now +.27C/ 100 years.

Tropical Oceans:

pause-nov-16-tropic-oceans

The Pause has ended for ocean areas.

Northern Extra Tropics:

pause-nov-16-next

The minimal trend is up to +0.56C/ 100 years.

Southern Extra Tropics:

pause-nov-16-sext

The Pause persists.

Northern Polar:

pause-nov-16-np

The trend has increased a lot to +2.32C and since February 2003 +0.7C/100 years.

Southern Polar:

pause-nov-16-sp

The South Polar region has been cooling for the entire record.

USA 49 States:

pause-nov-16-usa49

The Pause has shortened by one month and is about to disappear altogether.

Australia:

pause-nov-16-oz

One month longer- 21 years 5 months.

The next graphs summarise the above plots. First, a graph of the relative length of The Pause in the various regions:

pause-length-nov-16

Note that the Pause has ended by my criteria in all regions of Northern Hemisphere, and consequently the Globe, and the Tropics, but all southern regions have a Pause for over half the record, including the South Polar region which has been cooling for the whole record.

The variation in the linear trend for the whole record, 1978 to the present:

trends-78-now-nov-16

Note the decrease in trends from North Polar to South Polar.

And the variation in the linear trend since June 1998, which is about halfway between the global low point of December 1997 and the peak in December 1998:

trends-98-now-nov-16

The imbalance between the two hemispheres is obvious. The lower troposphere over Australia has been strongly cooling for more than 18 years- just shy of half the record.

Global TLT anomalies have remained stubbornly high.  The next few months will be interesting. The Pause may disappear from the USA and Southern Hemisphere soon, but not the Southern Extra-Tropics or Australia. El Nino tropical heat is strongly affecting the North Polar region now, and will begin to affect the Southern Hemisphere early next year.

The Pause Update: October 2016

November 12, 2016

The complete UAH v6.0 data for October have just been released. I present all the graphs for various regions, and as well summaries for easier comparison. The Pause has ended globally and for the Northern Hemisphere, and the Tropics, but still refuses to go away in the Southern Hemisphere.

These graphs show the furthest back one can go to show a zero or negative trend (less than 0.1 +/-0.1C per 100 years) in lower tropospheric temperatures. I calculate 12 month running means to remove the small possibility of seasonal autocorrelation in the monthly anomalies. Note: The satellite record commences in December 1978- now 37 years and 11 months long- 455 months. 12 month running means commence in November 1979. The y-axes in the graphs below are at December 1978, so the vertical gridlines denote Decembers. The final plotted points are October 2016.

[CLICK ON IMAGES TO ENLARGE]

Globe:

pause-oct-16-globe

The Pause has ended. A trend of +0.23 C/100 years (+/- 0.1C) since March 1998 is about one fifth of the trend for the whole record.

And, for the special benefit of those who think that I am deliberately fudging data by using 12 month running means, here is the plot of monthly anomalies:

pause-oct-16-globe-monthly

Northern Hemisphere:

pause-oct-16-nh

The Northern Hemisphere Pause has well and truly ended.

Southern Hemisphere:

pause-oct-16-sh

For well over half the record, the Southern Hemisphere still has zero trend.  The Pause may end shortly.

Tropics:

pause-oct-16-tropics

The Pause in the Tropics (20N to 20S) has ended.

Tropical Oceans:

pause-oct-16-tropic-oceans

The Pause has ended for ocean areas.

Northern Extra Tropics:

pause-oct-16-nextt

The minimal trend is creeping up- how high will it go before decreasing again?

Southern Extra Tropics:

pause-oct-16-sextt

The Pause persists.

Northern Polar:

pause-oct-16-np

The trend has increased a lot.

Southern Polar:

pause-oct-16-sp

The South Polar region has been cooling for the entire record- 37 years.

USA 49 States:

pause-oct-16-usa49

No change.

Australia:

pause-oct-16-oz

No change.

The next graphs summarise the above plots. First, a graph of the relative length of The Pause in the various regions:

pause-oct-16-length

Note that the Pause has ended by my criteria in all regions of Northern Hemisphere, and consequently the Globe, and the Tropics, but all southern regions have a Pause for over half the record, including the South Polar region which has been cooling for the whole record.

The variation in the linear trend for the whole record, 1978 to the present:

trends-78-now-oct-16

Note the decrease in trends from North Polar to South Polar.

And the variation in the linear trend since June 1998, which is about halfway between the global low point of December 1997 and the peak in December 1998:

trends-98-now-oct-16

The imbalance between the two hemispheres is obvious. The lower troposphere over Australia has been strongly cooling for more than 18 years- just shy of half the record.

The next few months will be interesting. The Pause may disappear from the Southern Hemisphere soon. The behaviour of the Tropics and the South Polar regions will be crucial.  (I would like to see separate data for the Extra-tropical regions from 20 to 60 degrees north and south.)

The Pause Update: September 2016

October 18, 2016

The complete UAH v6.0 data for September have just been released. I present all the graphs for various regions, and as well summaries for easier comparison. The Pause has finally ended globally and for the Northern Hemisphere, and the Tropics, but still refuses to go away in the Southern Hemisphere.

These graphs show the furthest back one can go to show a zero or negative trend (less than 0.1 +/-0.1C per 100 years) in lower tropospheric temperatures. I calculate 12 month running means to remove the small possibility of seasonal autocorrelation in the monthly anomalies. Note: The satellite record commences in December 1978- now 37 years and 10 months long- 454 months. 12 month running means commence in November 1979. The y-axes in the graphs below are at December 1978, so the vertical gridlines denote Decembers. The final plotted points are September 2016.

[CLICK ON IMAGES TO ENLARGE]

Globe:

pause-sep16-globe

The Pause has ended. A trend of +0.18 C/100 years (+/- 0.1C) since March 1998 is about one sixth of the trend for the whole record.

And, for the special benefit of those who think that I am deliberately fudging data by using 12 month running means, here is the plot of monthly anomalies:

pause-sep16-globe-monthly

Northern Hemisphere:

pause-sep16-nh

The Northern Hemisphere Pause has ended.

Southern Hemisphere:

pause-sep16-sh

For well over half the record, the Southern Hemisphere still has zero trend.  The Pause may end shortly.

Tropics:

pause-sep16-tropics

As expected, the Pause in the Tropics (20N to 20S) has ended.

Tropical Oceans:

pause-sep16-tropic-oceans

The Pause remains (just) for ocean areas.

Northern Extra Tropics:

pause-sep16-next

The minimal trend is creeping up- how high will it go before decreasing again?

Southern Extra Tropics:

pause-sep16-sext

The Pause is one month longer.

Northern Polar:

pause-sep16-np

Another big increase in temperature in this region but the minimal trend is still one seventh that of the whole record.

Southern Polar:

pause-sep16-sp

The South Polar region has been cooling for the entire record- 36 years 11 months.

USA 49 States:

pause-sep16-usa49

One month shorter.

Australia:

pause-sep16-oz

No change.

The next graphs summarise the above plots. First, a graph of the relative length of The Pause in the various regions:

pause-length-sep16

Note that the Pause has ended by my criteria in all regions of Northern Hemisphere, and consequently the Globe, and the Tropics, but all southern regions have a Pause for over half the record, including the South Polar region which has been cooling for the whole record.

The variation in the linear trend for the whole record, 1978 to the present:

trends-78-now

Note the decrease in trends from North Polar to South Polar.

And the variation in the linear trend since June 1998, which is about halfway between the global low point of December 1997 and the peak in December 1998:

trends-jun-98-sep-16

The imbalance between the two hemispheres is obvious. The lower troposphere over Australia has been strongly cooling for more than 18 years- just shy of half the record.

The next few months will be interesting. The Pause may disappear from the Southern Hemisphere soon. How long will the Pause last in the Southern Extra Tropics and South Polar regions?  ( I would like to see separate data for the Extra-tropical regions from 20 to 60 degrees north and south.)